When you’re in the bowl-projection business, it is essential to balance two competing instincts: the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it would look now, and the instinct to project the bowl schedule as it is likely to look after the season.

As you get further into the season and the college football puzzle sorts itself out, the two instincts converge and the exercise becomes easier. The number of square pegs in round holes falls sharply. Some matchups hold steady week-over-week. When chaos strikes—as it did this week, much to the chagrin of Alabama, Texas A&M and others—you can handle it.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at a provisional bowl picture based on the AP Poll and College Football Reference’s Simple Rating System. With the regular season about to end, Academic Progress Rate—the statistic that determines which 5-7 teams are eligible for bowl games—will be brought online next week if necessary. Commentary follows.

Do not adjust your television sets: that is Auburn in the Salute to Veterans Bowl against Georgia Southern, which would mark the Tigers’ first game in Montgomery’s historic Cramton Bowl since 1953… James Madison and Sam Houston (New Orleans Bowl) have a pair of FCS playoff matchups under their belts, one in 2016 and one in 2020.

Tennessee and Georgia (CFP first round) are back together again; the Bulldogs won their Nov. 16 meeting 31–17… Indiana and Penn State (CFP first round) are also conference-mates; the Nittany Lions won last year’s meeting between the two teams 33–24… Arizona State and Ohio State (CFP first round) have a high-profile past meeting under their belts— the 1996 season’s Rose Bowl, won 20–17 by the Buckeyes… SMU and Notre Dame (CFP first round) met 40 years ago in the 1984 Aloha Bowl, a 27–20 Mustangs victory.

Arkansas State and Arkansas (68 Ventures Bowl) have never met in football; they are scheduled to do so in 2025… Connecticut and Kansas (Armed Forces Bowl) are currently ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in men’s basketball… Baylor and Texas A&M (Liberty Bowl), longtime Southwest Conference rivals, have not met since 2011… Tulane and Virginia Tech (Fenway Bowl) played in last year’s Military Bowl; bowl executives tend to intervene to prevent rematches… Georgia Tech and Michigan (Pinstripe Bowl) last played in 1934, a game infamous for the Wolverines benching their only Black player Willis Ward at the Yellow Jackets’ request… BYU opened its 1984 national championship season against Pittsburgh (Pop-Tarts Bowl), topping the No. 3 Panthers 20–14… Bowling Green and Fresno State (Arizona Bowl) played three times in the California Bowl, a defunct game matching up the MAC and Big West champions… USC beat Boston College (Sun Bowl) 24–13 in the 2009 Emerald Bowl.

A few new potential quarterfinal matchups looming: the Sun Devils and Boise State (Fiesta Bowl; the Broncos won their last meeting in the 2011 Las Vegas Bowl 56–24), ex-conference rivals SMU and Texas (Sugar Bowl), and Kirby Smart’s Georgia vs. protege Dan Lanning’s Oregon in the Rose Bowl… Syracuse and Florida (Gator Bowl) played in the Orange Bowl after the 1998 season; the Gators won 31–10… Among potential semifinal matchups, keep an eye on Georgia and the Broncos (Cotton Bowl), who split two games in which both were ranked in 2005 and 2011.