It’s now Week 9 of the college football regular season, and every single week from here on out — and the last few — will have ranked matchups and a ton of drama for the College Football Playoff. And while all that drama sorts itself out, I’ll take a look at the entire college football card and see where my College Football Projection Model sees value.

A tough week for the model as Central Michigan blows a 34-16 lead with 13:26 left in the fourth quarter and fails to cover the number. Not only did we lose a bet there but we managed to lose a leg of our Football Parlay Friday. Let’s just say the Chippewas might be on the “No Bet List” from now on.

In some housekeeping notes, I periodically “audit” all of my processes from the model itself and record-keeping, and I noticed two things. First, I forgot to add in a preseason bet on Oklahoma vs. Texas (a loser), and I had Arizona State over Texas State from earlier in the year (a winner) in the tracking sheet twice. Those are now reflected in the overall record.

Last week’s record: 5-7-1, -2.55 units
Season record: 31-36-3, -8.64 units, -11.3% ROI

Four bets to kick off this week. Hopefully we stay away from quarterback injuries this week after the last two weeks have not been fun in that department. As always, shop around for the best price. Good luck to us!

Best bets for college football Week 9

Penn State -6.5 (-110) at Wisconsin

If you want to talk about how Penn State doesn’t have a quality schedule, and that’s why they aren’t as high as their AP ranking suggests, that’s fine. But this being lined under a touchdown is puzzling because Wisconsin has played nobody during this three-game win streak despite winning by at least 20 in every game. Wisconsin’s pass defense will rank near the top of the national leaderboards, but each time they’ve stepped up in class this year (vs. Alabama and at USC), they’ve gotten cooked. Give me the Nittany Lions by double digits.

• Worst price to bet: Penn State -7 (-110)

Duke +11 (-110) vs. SMU

Duke has been pretty fortunate this year (4-0 in one-score games), but I’m not sold on SMU going on the road against this Duke defense and winning by double digits. My model has both defenses having the matchup advantage in this game which projects for lower-scoring action. That bodes well for the underdog. Shop around for the best price here as there is an 11.5 out there but +11 is widely available so that’s what I’ll be grading.

• Worst price to bet: Duke +10 (-110)

Bowling Green +3 (-110) at Toledo

I think this will be a low-scoring game, and my model prices it as a near coin flip. Bowling Green held their own at Penn State and Texas A&M earlier this year so I think they have a pretty high ceiling. I think their loss against Old Dominion was more of a product of playing two big-time programs back to back and not a predictor of success. When Connor Bazelak is on the field, the Bowling Green offense can move the ball, and I think they’re live to win this game outright because of it.

• Worst price to bet: Bowling Green +3 (-115)

Navy +11.5 (-110) vs. Notre Dame

If I have any pause here, it’s that Navy hasn’t played anyone close to the level of talent that Notre Dame has. But, to Navy’s credit, they’ve blitzed just about everyone they’ve played, so that’s a good sign. Navy has a super-efficient offense that ranks in the top 10 in both passing and rushing success rates. The matchup that I like here is that, as we all know, Navy loves to run the ball, and Notre Dame’s defense ranks 85th in rushing success rate according to gameonpaper.com. If Navy can keep the Notre Dame offense off the field and find success running the ball down to down, they can keep this within single digits.

• Worst price to bet: Navy +11 (-110)

(Photo of Adon Shuler: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)