College basketball bubble winners and losers: Arkansas suffers inexcusable loss

Posted by author March 2, 2025 Basketball

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No one likes to lose, but in the SEC it’s not that harmful to take a loss given how tough the conference is. But there are still a few games where a loss is not only bad, but catastrophic — especially when you’re living on the edge.

Arkansas proved how devastating it can be when you don’t take care of business.

The Razorbacks had really been picking up steam recently, with quality victories against teams like Kentucky and Missouri. It had gone from a team teetering in First Four territory to moving into a No. 10 seed in the latest edition of USA TODAY Sports’ Bracketology. But now, John Calipari’s squad looks headed back into “last four teams in” territory thanks to an inexcusable loss to SEC-worst South Carolina.

Losing to the Gamecocks, who entered the day with only one conference win, wasn’t going to look good. But it’s how Arkansas lost that makes it even worse.

It was almost like there was a lid on the basket for Arkansas. It couldn’t score at all. It took more than 17 minutes to score 10 points and trailed 32-14 at halftime. By the time Arkansas scored 20 points, there was 12 minutes left and it was down by 27 points. It trailed by 35 points at one point. The Razorbacks were able to score 33 more points the rest of the way to make it seem like it wasn’t a total disaster, but it still was a 19-point loss to the Gamecocks.

Thanks to a day where it shot 28.8% from the field and 13.6% from 3-point land, Arkansas now makes a return to the bubble. Saturday was a big resume hit; the Razorbacks have a losing record in both Quad 1 and Quad 2 games − a 6-12 combined mark.

In a time where every game is under a magnifying glass, the “gimme” games need to be handled. If they end in losses, it could be the reason why a team doesn’t hear its name called on Selection Sunday − something the Hogs didn’t expect with Calipari at the helm. Arkansas caps the penultimate week of the regular season in bad fashion and leads the winners and losers of teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Winners

North Carolina

While teams like Arkansas have clouds over their neighborhoods, the Tar Heels are enjoying their stroll around town with the skies shining Carolina blue. North Carolina didn’t have much trouble against ACC-worst Miami, beating the Hurricanes by 19 points for its fifth straight win.

Beating the Hurricanes is not impressive. In fact, none of the past five wins were against anybody good and none helped improve the lowly 1-10 Quad 1 record North Carolina owns. But the Tar Heels are doing the only thing they can do with an easy stretch of opponents: win and watch the chaos around them commence. Bubble teams are suffering some bad losses, but none are happening in Chapel Hill. That’s helping North Carolina inch closer toward the projected field. The game against Duke next week is one that can really determine North Carolina’s fate, but kudos to the Tar Heels for steadying the ship late in the season.

Xavier

When opportunity arises, it’s best to make the most of it. And, oh, did Xavier make a big-time statement on Saturday. The Cintas Center was rocking as the Musketeers pulled off a dominant run late in the second half against the Big East’s second-place team, Creighton, winning their first straight, 83-59. Playing against one of the most effective offenses in the country, it was Xavier that was really scoring at will.

Like North Carolina, Xavier has stayed in the tournament picture thanks to wins against inferior opponents. But Saturday was the first against a tournament contender since it first lost to the Bluejays more than a month ago. The Musketeers needed to prove they could beat quality team. Did they ever, scoring a 22-point victory. Unfortunately it wasn’t a Quad 1 game, something Xavier needs with just a 1-8 record in such instances, but it was certainly the most impressive outcome it could have hoped for. The selection committee won’t be able to ignore this win. Sean Miller’s team inches closer toward cracking the projected field.

Losers

Oklahoma

Back and forth the Sooners go, as Oklahoma now likely finds itself out of the projected field once again after another defeat. In a very winnable game against Mississippi, the Sooners were down by nine points with eight minutes left when freshman guard Dayton Forsythe shot his team back into the game. With one minute left, Oklahoma had a two-point lead. But the defense couldn’t keep the lead, allowing Mississippi’s Sean Pedulla to make a go-ahead 3-pointer with 19 seconds left that wound up being the game-winning shot.

The win fell right through Oklahoma’s hands and not only is it a second straight loss, it’s now seven defeats in the last eight outings, effectively cancelling out the win over Mississippi State. The Sooners are now 4-12 in the SEC − third worst − and have a 5-10 Quad 1 record. They will likely be outside of the projected field next week. Wins in the last two regular-season games may be a necessity.

Nebraska

The struggles in Lincoln continue with Nebraska suffering its third consecutive loss, another defeat at the hands of a team nowhere close to playing in the NCAA Tournament. Against a sneaky Minnesota team, the Cornhuskers trailed by as much as 19 points in the second half before storming back to make it a ballgame in the final minutes. They took a one-point lead with nine seconds left and looked like they’d avoid disaster. Until Minnesota’s Brennan Rigsby drilled a 3-point bucket with four seconds to go to stun the home crowd.

Minnesota isn’t a horrible team, but when a Quad 3 opponent comes into your building and you’re on the fringe of the NCAA Tournament, you better win. Nebraska ended up suffering its first Quad 3 loss that, from a resume standpoint, might be the worst loss a bubble team suffered on Saturday. Something like this can’t happen for a team with a NET ranking of No. 54. It’s been a free fall for a team that looked like it was trending toward being a single-digit seed in the bracket less than two weeks ago. One of those “first four out” teams may be in place to take the Cornhuskers’ spot.