Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches Best Bets and Golf Odds:

Brian Campbell had neither won a PGA TOUR event (or any professional event for that matter) nor even posted a Top 10 on the PGA TOUR. This is his second season on the PGA TOUR having lost his card at the end of 2017. Campbell is now a PGA TOUR winner courtesy of this fortunate break on the second playoff hole at the Mexico Open:

Unfortunately for us, it came at the expense of Aldrich Potgieter, who we tipped at 70/1 and was both the 36-hole and 54-hole leader of the event. Aside from Campbell’s 220/1 pre-tournament odds, he was a long shot just to win the playoff on the Par 5 18th, considering that Potgieter is the PGA TOUR leader in Driving Distance and Campbell ranked 182 out of 182 for the same category. Potgieter led the field in Mexico for both Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Putting, but Campbell’s short game around the greens (No. 1 in the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green) and iron play were enough for victory. 

This week, the PGA TOUR begins the Florida Swing in Palm Beach with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. 

Shane Lowry (20/1) was finished 4th (2024), 5th (2023), and 2nd (2022) here the last three years. His 2022 runner-up was behind eventual winner Sepp Straka (25/1). 

Russell Henley (22/1) won this event in 2014 and finished 3rd here in 2021, and Sungjae Im (25/1) was the 2020 champion of this event. 

Daniel Berger (28/1) lost a playoff here in 2015 and has a couple of 4th-place finishes (2020, 2022). He also finished runner-up three weeks ago in Phoenix. 

Taylor Pendrith (30/1), Denny McCarthy (35/1), Byeong Hun An (40/1), Cameron Young (40/1), Davis Thompson (40/1), Max Greyserman (50/1), Cognizant Classic defending champion Austin Eckroat (55/1), Billy Horschel (55/1), Lucas Glover (55/1), Brian Harman (60/1), Nico Echavarria (110/1), and Matthieu Pavon (250/1) are also amongst the 16 players in this week’s field currently ranked in the OWGR Top 50. 

Aside from Straka, Im, and Henley, other former Cognizant Classic winners in this week’s field include 2023 winner Chris Kirk (70/1), 2019 winner Keith Mitchell (35/1), 2017 winner Rickie Fowler (55/1), 2010 winner Camilo Villegas (500/1), 2006 winner Luke Donald (1000/1), and 2002 winner Matt Kuchar (100/1). 

Last week’s winner Campbell is 80/1 this week. 

The Event

The Cognizant Classic was founded in 1972 as Jackie Gleason’s Inverrary Classic and played at the Inverrary Country Club in Lauderhill, Florida, where Gleason had his retirement home on the course. The Honeymooners star served as the tournament’s host through 1980. American Honda Motor Company (Honda) took over the tournament sponsorship in 1982 and held it until last year. Honda’s 42 years is the longest uninterrupted title sponsor run ever on the PGA TOUR.

Last year, Cognizant, a multinational IT services and consulting company headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey, took over as title sponsor.

The tournament has been played at various venues around South Florida until moving to its current home at PGA National Resort & Spa in 2007. Since moving to PGA National, the Honda Classic has been able to attract more top players on a more consistent basis. IMG has served as the event’s organizer since 2013, and the tournament’s main charitable beneficiary is the Nicklaus Children’s Health Care Foundation, chaired by Jack Nicklaus’s wife, Barbara. Multiple winners of the event include Jack Nicklaus (1977, 1978), Johnny Miller (1980, 1983), Mark Calcavecchia (1987, 1998) and Padraig Harrington (2005, 2015). A host of major champions have also emerged victorious in this event, including Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Adam Scott, Ernie Els, Vijay Singh, Mark O’Meara, Nick Price, Fred Couples, Hale Irwin, Curtis Strange, Tom Kite, Larry Nelson, and Lee Trevino.

The Field

144 players will tee it up this week in The Cognizant Classic. 

The Course

Just a few miles off Florida’s Atlantic coast, sitting halfway between Jupiter and West Palm Beach, sits the Champion course at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, FL. The Champions Course at PGA National Resort & Spa was originally designed by Tom and George Fazio in 1981 but has undergone several toughening renovations, most recently in 2018 by Jack Nicklaus. The course has also hosted the 1983 Ryder Cup, the 1987 PGA Championship, and the Senior PGA Championship from 1982-2000. 

PGA National converted to a Par 71 from a Par 70 for this event, which began last year. The track played easier last year with the extra Par 5 and softer greens. Austin Eckroat set the tournament scoring record at PGA National with a 17-under score of 263. In total, 27 players in last year’s field finished at 10-under par or better. Only 11 players broke the 10-under par mark in the previous 17 years at PGA National.

The course is a 7,167-yard layout with water (26 hazards in all) in play on 15 of 18 holes (most on the PGA TOUR). Eight of those 15 holes have carries over water for approach shots. PGA National is susceptible to wind gusts that will push balls into the water. The water hazards also force players to lay up more often than not, so you will not see many drivers off the tee. PGA National has the most water balls (over 6,000) of any course on the PGA TOUR over the last 20 years.

The overseeded rye rough is not all that penal (2.5″), but the Bermuda fairways are narrowed from last year at an average fairway width of 28 yards from 32 yards last year as the course played too easy by this event’s standard. The TifEagle Bermuda greens are also contoured, elevated, large (7,000 average sq ft – 10th largest on TOUR), but only slightly above average speed (12 stimpmeter). Recent rain could potentially soften these greens, though. 

Here is the difficulty rank for PGA National in recent years:

Before last year’s change to a Par 71, PGA National had been the toughest non-major course on the PGA TOUR in six of the previous 10 seasons.

PGA National is most notable for what is known as the “Bear Trap.” The arduous stretch from holes 15, 16 and 17 is one of the most difficult three-hole stretches on the PGA TOUR. 

Water looms throughout the Bear Trap, which includes two 175-yard Par 3s and a tight dogleg Par 4 just over 430 yards. It always makes for a climactic finish with chasers taking aggressive lines at these tight pin locations over the water, while leaders have done their best to stay dry and escape into the Par 5 18th at even par.

Potential correlated courses here include Bay Hill, Innisbrook (Copperhead), Waialae (short Par 70 plus multiple winners on both tracks), Concession (Nicklaus design), Quail Hollow (Fazio design), TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, and Colonial (short Par 70).

Golf Stay and Plays is a golf concierge site that books golfing vacations, and they provide a video flyover of the PGA National Resort and Spa: Champion Course.

Cognizant Classic Recent History/Winners

2024: Austin Eckroat (-17/263); 110/1
2023: Chris Kirk (-14/266); 25/1*
2022: Sepp Straka (-10/270); 125/1
2021: Matt Jones (-12/268); 70/1
2020: Sungjae Im (-6/274); 35/1
2019: Keith Mitchell (-9/271); 300/1
2018: Justin Thomas (-8/272); 12/1**
2017: Rickie Fowler (-12/268); 16/1
2016: Adam Scott (-9/271); 20/1
2015: Padraig Harrington (-6/274); 400/1***
2014: Russell Henley (-8/272); 300/1****
2013: Michael Thompson (-9/271); 300/1
2012: Rory McIlroy (-12/268); 9/1
2011: Rory Sabbatini (-9/271); 80/1
2010: Camilo Villegas (-13/267); 30/1

Playoff win over Eric Cole – *
Playoff win over Luke List – **
Playoff win over Daniel Berger – ***
Playoff win over Rory McIlroy, Russell Knox, Ryan Palmer – ****

Cognizant Classic Tournament Trends 

• Twelve of the past 14 winners of the Cognizant Classic have previously made the cut at least once in this event.
• Of the 18 course winners since this event moved to PGA National, 10 of them have been international players.
• Of the 18 course winners since this event moved to PGA National, 6 of them have been major champions. 
• Four players have won both this event and the Sony Open since it moved to PGA National in 2007 (Matt Kuchar, Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, Mark Wilson). 

Statistical Analysis

In five of the last six years here, the tournament winner has an average ranking of 8th in the field during his winning week for Strokes Gained: Approach.

Strokes Gained Approach – Average Per Round (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. Jackson Suber 1.203
2. Nicolai Højgaard 1.184
3. J.J. Spaun 1.036
4. Jhonattan Vegas 0.947
5. Brian Campbell 0.925
6. David Lipsky 0.856
7. Henrik Norlander 0.842
8. Sepp Straka 0.795
9. Francesco Molinari 0.775
10. Andrew Putnam 0.764
11. Tom Hoge 0.698
12. Doug Ghim 0.693
13. Joel Dahmen 0.651
14. Charley Hoffman 0.584
15. Russell Henley 0.582
16. Antoine Rozner 0.525

Strokes Gained Approach – Average Per Round (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Tom Hoge 0.754
2. Lucas Glover 0.710
3. Doug Ghim 0.659
4. Kurt Kitayama 0.608
5. Henrik Norlander 0.571
6. Shane Lowry 0.531
7. Keith Mitchell 0.531
8. Joel Dahmen 0.486
9. J.J. Spaun 0.469
10. Patton Kizzire 0.458
11. Jhonattan Vegas 0.433
12. Andrew Novak 0.430
13. Greyson Sigg 0.414
14. Mac Meissner 0.405
15. Austin Eckroat 0.395
16. Lee Hodges 0.363
17. Nicolai Højgaard 0.359

The many doglegs and water hazards force players to hit less than driver off the tee, which leads to one of the shortest average driving distances at under 280 yards and driving accuracy that only averages 60%. PGA National is one of the tougher courses on TOUR to gain strokes off the tee.

Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee – Average Per Round (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. Alejandro Tosti 0.916
2. Taylor Pendrith 0.913
3. Keith Mitchell 0.853
4. Isaiah Salinda 0.847
5. Steven Fisk 0.815
6. Jesper Svensson 0.794
7. Kevin Roy 0.743
8. Luke Clanton 0.701
9. Rico Hoey 0.618
10. Kurt Kitayama 0.615
11. Alex Smalley 0.607
12. Gary Woodland 0.536
13. Daniel Berger 0.531
14. Adam Schenk 0.528
15. Davis Thompson 0.525
16. Taylor Moore 0.524
17. Cameron Young 0.515
18. Bud Cauley 0.511
19. Byeong Hun An 0.505

Strokes Gained Off The Tee – Average Per Round (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Min Woo Lee 0.690
2. Patrick Fishburn 0.616
3. Keith Mitchell 0.615
4. Jhonattan Vegas 0.611
5. Rico Hoey 0.586
6. Alejandro Tosti 0.547
7. Jordan Spieth 0.500
8. Kurt Kitayama 0.446
9. Doug Ghim 0.413
10. Byeong Hun An 0.404
11. Daniel Berger 0.385
12. Cameron Young 0.375
13. Alex Smalley 0.352

Players will miss the greens around 40% of the time on average here at PGA National and will have to scramble to save pars and even bogeys particularly from the short grasses. 

Scrambling (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. Bud Cauley 82.86%
2. Keith Mitchell 72.97
3. Kevin Roy 71.19
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 70.75
5. Michael Kim 69.16
6. Daniel Berger 68.97
7. Sam Ryder 68.47
8. Victor Perez 68.12
9. Will Chandler 68.06
10. Brian Campbell 67.86
11. Paul Peterson 67.80
12. Mac Meissner 67.68
13. Brian Harman 67.57
14. Alex Smalley 67.42

Scrambling (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Henrik Norlander 66.96%
2. Denny McCarthy 66.15
3. Bud Cauley 65.73
4. Russell Henley 65.00
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 64.93
6. Greyson Sigg 64.87
7. Mackenzie Hughes 64.73
8. Ben Silverman 64.05
9. Chan Kim 63.98
10. Seamus Power 63.96
11. Ben Griffin 63.88
12. Nate Lashley 63.75
13. Sungjae Im 63.74
14. Billy Horschel 63.62

Bogeys and/or worse lurk all over the course and not just at “The Bear Trap.” 

Bogey Avoidance (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. Bud Cauley 8.33%
2. Kevin Roy 8.55
3. Keith Mitchell 9.38
4. Jhonattan Vegas 10.00
5. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 10.23
6. Michael Kim 10.28
7. Brice Garnett 10.42
8. Brian Harman 10.63
9. Denny McCarthy 10.83
10. Daniel Berger 11.11
11. Nicolai Højgaard 11.11
12. Sam Ryder 11.11
13. Alex Smalley 11.11
14. Sepp Straka 11.11
15. Andrew Putnam 11.40

Bogey Avoidance (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Patrick Fishburn 12.02%
2. Bud Cauley 12.04
3. Henrik Norlander 12.04
4. Doug Ghim 12.12
5. Greyson Sigg 12.29
6. Andrew Novak 12.47
7. Ben Silverman 12.55
8. Ben Griffin 12.64
9. Chan Kim 12.90
10. Andrew Putnam 12.92
11. Mac Meissner 12.96
12. Beau Hossler 13.11
13. Russell Henley 13.17
14. Seamus Power 13.48
15. Nate Lashley 13.49

Note: Percentage of time the player makes bogey. 

PGA National played easier than it ever had last year but could return to a more difficult setup with the fairways being narrowed. 

Strokes Gained: Total – Difficult Scoring Conditions (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Russell Henley 83.8
2. Denny McCarthy 56.4
3. Ryan Fox 54.9
4. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 53.7
5. Shane Lowry 53.2
6. Sepp Straka 46.6
7. Min Woo Lee 43.5
8. Jordan Spieth 43.2
9. Byeong Hun An 42.9
10. Andrew Novak 38
11. Daniel Berger 36.5
12. Sungjae Im 35.8
13. Mackenzie Hughes 33.4
14. Andrew Putnam 32
15. Cameron Young 30

After spending most of the last several weeks on Poa Annua or Paspalum, players go back to Florida where the Bermudagrass is more prevalent on the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting Total – Bermuda Greens (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Taylor Montgomery 40.2
2. Chad Ramey 40.1
3. Denny McCarthy 32
4. Mackenzie Hughes 30.2
5. Ben Griffin 29.8
6. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 28.6
7. Nico Echavarria 25.7
8. Russell Henley 25.5
9. Braden Thornberry 21.8 (19 Rounds)
10. Brendon Todd 20.7
11. Andrew Putnam 20.7
12. Ryan Fox 19.6
13. Matt Kuchar 18.8
14. Harry Hall 18.5
15. Ben Martin 18.5
16. Max Greyserman 18.2 (38 Rounds)

The greens at PGA National are some of the largest on TOUR at 7,000 sq ft on average, so potential three-putts will come into play.

Three-Putt Avoidance (2025 PGA TOUR season)

1. Nicolai Højgaard 0.00%
2. Braden Thornberry 0.00
3. Quade Cummins 0.46
4. Max McGreevy 0.93
5. Trey Mullinax 0.93
6. Davis Riley 0.93
7. Zach Johnson 1.01
8. Vince Whaley 1.04
9. Brendon Todd 1.11
10. Andrew Putnam 1.17
11. Emiliano Grillo 1.19
12. Billy Horschel 1.23
13. Rickie Fowler 1.28
14. Kevin Roy 1.28
15. Luke Clanton 1.39
16. Matt Kuchar 1.39

Three-Putt Avoidance (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Russell Henley 0.99%
2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 1.32
3. Victor Perez 1.39
4. Mackenzie Hughes 1.52
5. Emiliano Grillo 1.70
6. Brian Harman 1.79
7. Andrew Novak 1.81
8. Denny McCarthy 1.85
9. Taylor Montgomery 1.95
10. Austin Eckroat 1.98
11. Jordan Spieth 1.98
12. Vince Whaley 2.01
13. Andrew Putnam 2.04
14. Matt Kuchar 2.05
15. Taylor Pendrith 2.05

Note: Percentage of time that a player three-putts. 

Taking a composite look at previous history on correlated courses to PGA National such as Bay Hill, Innisbrook (Copperhead), Waialae (short Par 70 plus multiple winners on both tracks), Concession (Nicklaus design), Quail Hollow (Fazio design), TPC Sawgrass, TPC Southwind, and Colonial (short Par 70), plus previous data at PGA National can give us an idea of who should succeed here. 

Total Strokes Gained – Comp Course History (Last 50 Rounds)

1. Daniel Berger 60.4
2. Russell Henley 56.2
3. Sungjae Im 48
4. Byeong Hun An 44.2
5. Andrew Putnam 43.1
6. Lucas Glover 39.9
7. Denny McCarthy 38.6
8. Adam Schenk 36.4
9. Shane Lowry 35.5
10. Keith Mitchell 30.3
11. Davis Riley 29.9
12. Cameron Young 29.3
13. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 26.1
14. Billy Horschel 24.7
15. KH Lee 24

Selections

Daniel Berger 30/1 DraftKings
A bit of a home game here for the Jupiter, FL resident. He has had previous success here and has been on the comeback trail after a back injury kept him out for 18 months in 2022-2023.  Berger is just outside the OWGR Top 50 at No. 53 and a couple of good performances will lock in a Masters invitation. 

Billy Horschel 55/1 FanDuel
Horschel has won twice worldwide in the last calendar year and is looking for another one particularly in his home state of Florida where he has never won. He also is looking to make the Ryder Cup team for the first time. Horschel was 9th here last year and was the first-round leader in 2023. In all he has finished in the Top 10 three times in his last eight appearances at PGA National. 

Ryan Gerard 75/1 Caesars Sportsbook
Back in 2023, Gerard finished 4th in this event to earn Special Temporary Membership on the PGA TOUR. However, he was not able to retain his card and went to the Korn Ferry Tour and won last year to earn his spot back on the TOUR. Gerard comes into this week with consecutive Top 20 finishes in the Farmers Insurance and Mexico Opens. He also has a win on this course back in 2015 as a junior golfer at the Polo Junior Classic. 

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80/1 Bet365
Bezuidenhout’s ball striking numbers do not exactly jump off the page, but he has one of the better short games on the PGA TOUR when it comes to both on and around the greens. The three-time DP World Tour winner has gone well in various stops on the Florida Swing before – 7th in the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational, 9th at the 2024 Valspar Championship, and two Top 13s at THE PLAYERS Championship. 

Bud Cauley 82/1 Circa Sports 
Cauley returned last year to the PGA TOUR after three years away due to various injuries. His last four finishes have produced results of 21-30-25-34. He currently leads the PGA TOUR for Scrambling and is Top 20 for Total Strokes Gained for the young season. 

Eric Cole 95/1 Circa Sports
Cole lost the playoff to Chris Kirk in this event two years ago. The form has been a bit shaky lately, but he did post a Top 5 earlier this season at Waialae and was 13th there in the year prior. Waialae, which hosts the Sony Open, has a strong correlation with PGA National. 

Nico Echavarria 110/1 FanDuel
Speaking of the Sony Open, Echavarria was the runner-up there earlier this year, losing to Nick Taylor (a 115/1 winner for us in that event) in the playoff. The Colombian is now a two-time winner on the PGA TOUR having won the ZOZO Championship last fall and was also the runner-up in the season ender at the RSM Classic last November. 

Adam Svensson 110/1 Circa Sports
While the only notable successful start in this event was a 9th in 2022 (the Canadian won later that year at the RSM Classic), Svensson could rightfully be considered a ‘horse for the course’ here. He played this track frequently in college and won on this course in 2015 at the Web.com (now Korn Ferry Tour) Q-School by seven strokes. 

Placement markets and/or matchups will be available on Wednesday at VSiN.com/picks.