Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: At UCF Knights

Posted by author February 4, 2025 Basketball

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CINCINNATI — The Bearcats basketball team (12-9, 2-8) is trying to stop its spiraling season on the road Wednesday night against UCF (13-8, 4-6).

Cincinnati is in second-to-last place in the Big 12 and has posted multiple lifeless performances over the past few weeks amidst a second four-game losing streak this conference season. UCF will be hungry to add another embarrassment to UC’s ledger, entering this game on a two-game losing streak themselves.

The Bearcats rank 60th on KenPom and 53rd in the NET rankings, while UCF is 58th and 64th on that front. ESPN’sMatchup Predictor gives UCF a 51.8% chance to get the home win.

Cincinnati owns a 16-5 record in the all-time series.

Cincinnati will get blown out in this game if they don’t punish UCF on the glass like so many teams have this season. The Bearcats finally won a rebounding battle in Sunday’s 63-50 loss to West Virginia for the first time in seven games and need to keep that up.

Someone following Dillion Mitchell’s (10 rebounds Sunday) lead is imperative to keeping pace with one of the fastest (21st in adjusted tempo on KenPom) and best three-point shooting teams (10 makes per game in conference, first in Big 12) in the country. The Knights’ one big weakness is hitting the glass (36.9 rebounds allowed per game in conference, last in Big 12).

The easiest way to tell if this Cincinnati team still cares at all or has any fight left is that glass number. UCF gets outrebounded by nearly six boards per game in conference and that will obviously help even the playing field for the worst field-goal percentage offense in the Big 12. Cincinnati is shooting an abysmal 39% from the floor. The numbers say they have no chance to win if they don’t grab more rebounds (especially offensive) and overwhelm the Knights with shots.

Star forward Keyshawn Hall (18.1 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists) does it all for UCF, including mashing the glass. Mitchell will have to neutralize him, and Aziz Bandaogo has to outwork 7-2 rebound gulper Moustapha Thiem (9.6 points, 5.3 rebounds). Cincinnati will have a slight size advantage overall, but those two could nullify that with continued strong play.

Should UCF hit their 10 three-per-game average in conference play, Cincinnati is in big trouble. What was once the best three-point defense in the nation entering 2025, has absolutely shattered in recent weeks.

The Bearcats just allowed WVU to go 9-18 from deep and allowed their past three opponents to hit 47.1% from outside on nearly 23 shots per game.

“I think mainly it’s just us not doing our part and knowing the personnel,” UC guard Simas Lukošius said about the outside defense. “There are things and plays that we’re supposed to know how to guard, and we have lapses of concentration. We end up giving up easy threes like that, and that’s been a theme for us in this past month where we’vetaken a dip on how we guard three-point shooters.”

The dip cannot continue here. UCF has to be drooling in anticipation of this wounded animal. Johnny Dawkins’ team gets them up, shooting 28.2 threes per game (first in Big 12 conference play), with those 10 makes and a total percentage sitting at 35.5% (fourth best in conference play).

Hall (38.6% on four attempts per game this season) is one of three sharpshooters hitting at least 36% from outside on four-plus attempts. Flamethrowing guard Darius Johnson (14.8 points, 4.1 assists) could win this game with his shot alone (Big 12 best 42.5% from outside on six attempts per game). Cincinnati cannot let him get hot as he has in the past few weeks (10 made threes in the past three games).

How badly does this UC team want to fight for its pride and university? I never thought I’d type that sentence in the Wes Miller era, but here we are. Communication and connectivity on defense have to return, or Cincinnati will add a 10th loss to its season ledger.

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