1/ST BET Horse Racing Predictions:

We are excited to announce a renewed partnership with the fine folks and handicappers at 1/ST BET. Jeremy Plonk and Jeff Siegel will be sharing their expertise Wednesday-Sunday on a weekly basis to pass along some ponies that they like for races at various tracks around the country, including Churchill Downs.

For this Wednesday, September 18 article, we’ve got “Plonk’s Picks” for racing, featuring racing from the legendary Kentucky track.

Churchill Downs | Race 4 | 2:13 pm ET

#2 Moving to Kentucky (7-2 morning line odds) looks to give trainer Matthew Sims his second straight winner to open the Churchill meeting, having scored a 10-1 upsetter here Sunday. Decent dirt try at Keeneland in this horse’s debut, then ran better in a turf route at Ellis Park despite traffic trouble late. Should be perfectly suited now for his first route try on dirt and drawn beautifully inside to save ground. Win bet.

Churchill Downs | Race 9 | 4:54 pm ET

Experienced horses have a massive edge on first-time starters in Churchill 2-year-old dirt mile maiden races (79-5) in wins since 2014. Horses exiting turf mile races and switching to dirt have a phenomenal $2.12 ROI for every $1 bet in these spots (from more than 80 starters). Give long looks to #5 Real Conviction (15-1 morning line odds) and #9 Optical (7-2 morning line odds), who both ran turf miles most recently. Trainer Keith Desormeaux, who saddles #9 Optical, won similar 2-year-old dirt mile maiden races at Churchill in 2020 and 2021. Smaller win bet #5, larger win bet #9. Exacta box 5-9.