Neither the Houston Texans nor the Kansas City Chiefs have looked like offensive juggernauts during the 2024 NFL season. But that hasn’t stopped them from advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs. Houston rolled over the Los Angeles Chargers in a wild-card upset featuring DeMeco Ryans‘ tenacious defense, while Kansas City enjoyed a first-round bye after a 15-2 finish fueled by crunch-time heroics.

Now, almost a month after clashing in a Week 16 showdown at Arrowhead Stadium, the AFC contenders are set to go head to head again, this time with everything on the line. Can C.J. Stroud step up on the road to give the Texans yet another January upset? Or are Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and Co. poised to make their seventh straight AFC championship with an explosive breakout on their home field? Either way, this one’s must-see material to kick off the next round of postseason action.

How can you tune in? Which player matchups are most pivotal? And who’s primed to walk away with the win? Here’s our preview and sports betting prediction:

Chiefs vs. Texans where to watch

Date: Saturday, Jan. 18 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fubo (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -8.5, O/U 41.5 (SportsLine consensus)

Key questions for Chiefs vs. Texans

• Are the Chiefs due for an offensive breakout? All year, Mahomes endured something of a makeshift supporting cast, with veterans like Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco and Marquise Brown exiting with serious injuries. Now, not only will the three-time champion have Pacheco and Brown at full health, but he’ll enter with a full two weeks of rest after the Chiefs rested starters in Week 18 and then spent Wild Card Weekend observing other games. Their offensive attack could finally be ready for big plays.
• Can the Texans establish the run? Stroud has been a much more mercurial passer this year thanks in part to injuries and inconsistency both up front and out wide, which has made Joe Mixon a surprisingly important ingredient when Houston has the ball. The only potential problem for the Texans, one week after Mixon made the most of 25 carries against Los Angeles: The Chiefs boast a top-10 run defense under Steve Spagnuolo, threatening Houston’s chances of controlling the ball and clock.
• Can Ryans’ defense pry the ball loose? Again, the Texans’ recipe for victory as of late has been defensive dominance; they logged 29 total takeaways, fourth-most in the NFL, before opening the playoffs, and star cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. tortured Justin Herbert in the wild-card round. Mahomes, meanwhile, drastically improved his ball security through the air in the latter half of the 2024 campaign, throwing 18 touchdowns to just two picks over his final nine starts.

Prediction

Houston stomped all over outside expectations in the wild-card round, outmuscling the Chargers to command more respect going into a rematch with the defending champions. And we don’t doubt Ryans’ front, in particular, could muddy things up for Mahomes, with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. headlining a unit that pressures opposing quarterbacks on almost 38% of dropbacks.

The Texans offense, however, has been too dependent on splash shots to Nico Collins, plus big outings from the streaky Mixon, in a down year for Stroud, whose dynamism as a pocket passer was the chief reason for Houston’s more enticing playoff bid a season ago. The Chiefs, on the other hand, get the benefit of added rest on their home turf, and they’ve been darn near undeniable in games that truly matter, with Mahomes boasting a remarkable 15-3 career mark in the postseason. How can you bet against that?

Prediction: Chiefs 28, Texans 20