A short week after the worst loss of the season was no problem for the LA Chargers, who beat the Denver Broncos at home on Thursday night to improve to 9-6 on the season. The win over Denver gives Los Angeles a 98% chance of making the playoffs with a clinching scenario as early as this weekend.

This was the biggest win of the Chargers’ season as it not only put the team in a great spot to make the playoffs but also gave the Bolts an easier path in the playoffs itself. If all goes as planned, the Chargers will avoid the worst-possible first-round matchup in the AFC Wild Card Round.

With the tiebreaker advantage over the Broncos, the Chargers can lock up the sixth seed at worst with wins over the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders to close out the season. The Patriots and Raiders will both be picking in the top five of the 2025 NFL Draft, so the Chargers should win.

This would take the Chargers out of the Buffalo Bills’ orbit. Buffalo is all but locked into the No. 2 seed and will play the No. 7 seed in the first round, which will likely be the Broncos if all else holds.

Chargers avoiding Bills is a huge plus of beating the Broncos

The Chargers are half a game back of the Baltimore Ravens and do not have the tiebreaker. The Chargers would need the Ravens to lose two of the last three games to usurp them in the standings.

This essentially locks the Chargers in as the sixth seed if all goes as planned. As it currently stands, the Chargers would play the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Wild Card Round in Pittsburgh. The Houston Texans are the fourth seed.

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Baltimore could take the AFC North from the Steelers and emerge as the third seed as well. However, even with a win over the Steelers this weekend the Ravens would still be in the wild-card hunt. The Steelers do play the Kansas City Chiefs and a hungry Cincinnati Bengals team, though, so the door is open for the Ravens to win the AFC North or the Texans to become the third seed.

The Ravens would be the worst of the three matchups in the first round but they are still a more favorable opponent than the Bills. Baltimore is subject to wonky outcomes and games where Lamar Jackson is not the same (especially in the playoffs). After playing them already this season, the Chargers would have an idea of what to expect.

In a better world, the Chargers would get to play either the Steelers or Texans in the first round. The Chargers would be underdogs against either team but would actually stand a chance in the game. The Chargers can absolutely beat either Houston or Pittsburgh, opening the door for the team to advance to the second round.

There, the Chargers would likely face off against the Chiefs barring a Denver upset over Buffalo. As bad as that normally is, the Chargers have played the Chiefs well this season and are the last team Kansas City wants to see in the AFC Divisional Round. That is a fact.

A lot would have to go the Chargers way, and it still may be unlikely, but there is a path to the AFC Championship Game if the Chargers can win out and maintain the sixth seed. That path would not be possible whatsoever as the seventh seed.