Current Super Bowl odds: 1.6%

Why they will win the Super Bowl

The offense somehow finds their 2023 rhythm after a disastrous 2024 campaign. Last season, the Texans rolled into the playoffs with an explosive passing offense that never reappeared this season. In fact, QB C.J. Stroud’s passing numbers would make you believe he’s been one of the worse quarterbacks in the league this year considering his bottom-seven dropback success rate that only ranks ahead of Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Cooper Rush and Daniel Jones. But if they can get back to their explosive ways of 2023, the Texans can make a run.

Why they won’t

Because as much as we want to put blame on the quarterback, the offensive line is one of the league’s worst. When looking at blown blocks in the running game and pressures allowed in the passing game, no offensive line has “blown” a block as often as the Texans at 28.5% of plays according to FTN Data. The next worst team is the New England Patriots at 26.0%. So, it’s not debatable which offensive line is the worst in the league right now. When it comes to postseason success, trench play is paramount, and right now, the Texans aren’t good enough.