For the second year in-a-row, CBS has defeated Fox head-to-head in NFL ratings.

Per Jon Lewis of Sports Media Watch, it’s just the second time since 2007 that the CBS national window has outdrawn Fox’s America’s Game of the Week. Overall, CBS NFL telecasts averaged 19.2 million viewers this year while Fox averaged 18.4 million. In the late-afternoon national window, CBS averaged 24.3 million viewers while Fox averaged 23.9 million.

Both networks are down year-over-year, as is the entirety of the NFL, who saw an overall 2% decline in viewership versus 2023. But CBS notching its second straight ratings win over Fox is notable because, on paper, Fox should have a clear advantage.

First and foremost, Fox owns the NFC package, which in NFL terms means they’ve bought the largest markets. The top-five media markets by size each have an NFC team; New York City (1) and Los Angeles (2) have teams in each conference, then Chicago (3), Philadelphia (4), and Dallas (5) each have NFC teams.

Fox pays the NFL for this privilege — about $150 million per year more than CBS to be precise.

The league has implemented a concept known as “cross-flexing” more in recent years, which allows Fox to air AFC games and CBS to air NFC games in certain scenarios that ensure better quality games go out to wider audiences. But generally speaking, most NFC national window games will air on Fox while most AFC national window games will air on CBS.

It’s not only market size that Fox had going for it this year. The network inserted its highly-anticipated $375 million man, Tom Brady, into the lead broadcast booth alongside Kevin Burkhardt this season. Broadcasters aren’t usually seen as needle-movers from a television ratings perspective, but if anyone was going to move the needle from the booth it was Tom Brady.

And to throw Fox a bone for the seven-time Super Bowl champion’s debut behind the mic, the NFL allowed Fox to air its Week 1 national window game unopposed — a sharp departure from recent years when the league has implemented what is known as a “double-doubleheader” in Week 1, where both Fox and CBS air late afternoon games.

Opening week is traditionally one of the most-viewed Sundays of the NFL season, so giving Fox the lone late afternoon window to kickoff the season was a significant advantage versus its competitor at CBS.

Needless to say, things didn’t go exactly as planned for Fox this season. Other than the Philadelphia Eagles, its large market teams failed to perform on the field. The Dallas Cowboys finished three games under .500 and lost their starting quarterback midway through the season. The Chicago Bears, and No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, went on a brutal eight-game skid after a decent start. The New York Giants weren’t a fun watch this year, and the middling Los Angeles Rams aren’t exactly television darlings despite residing in a large market.

On the flip side, CBS, with its AFC package, features a number of smaller market teams. The top-three seeds in this year’s AFC playoffs — the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens — rank 34th, 54th, and 29th respectively in TV market size. Purely by this measure, it shouldn’t even be close which network is able to draw more viewers.

However, the AFC has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to the most important and marketable position in all of sports: the quarterback.

Three-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes, two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, and three-time Pro Bowl selection Josh Allen make up a three-headed monster that Fox and the NFC cannot compete with, regardless of market size.

In ten national window games on CBS seven of them featured either Mahomes, Jackson, or Allen. The other three games included one Cowboys game, the Bears-Commanders game that ended on a Hail Mary, and an early-season tilt between the Packers and Rams.

Of Fox’s ten national window games, just three featured the trio of Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen. The rest featured a heavy dose of the Cowboys and Packers.

Now, it’s not as if the CBS numbers are blowing Fox’s out of the water. CBS beat Fox by an average of just 400,000 viewers in the national window — practically a rounding error for the massive audiences NFL games draw.

But the fact that it’s even a competition at all is the story, and it’s thanks to the star quarterbacks in the AFC. One year of CBS beating Fox was an aberration. Two years in-a-row is a pattern, and the answer is right there in front of us.

Viewers would much rather watch Mahomes, Jackson, and Allen over Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, and Jordan Love (the three quarterbacks that appeared most during Fox’s national window).

This isn’t something that will change overnight. Those AFC quarterbacks aren’t going anywhere. Meanwhile, the NFC’s top teams don’t have needle-moving star quarterbacks. And the large market teams in New York, Chicago, and Dallas are practically unwatchable top-to-bottom.

All of this screams advantage CBS for years to come.

Gone are the days when airing teams in the largest media markets would secure the biggest audiences. Now, in our nationalized media environment, it doesn’t matter if you’re a quarterback playing in the 34th or 54th-largest market in the country. If you’re great, the eyeballs will be there.

Not even putting Tom Brady in the booth can change the reality of the NFC’s quarterback situation on the field. And that might make Fox mildly concerned looking towards 2025 and beyond.