Two years ago, I wrote a column about Illinois football and its use of “Moneyball” tactics.

Now, I’ve got similar questions for the men’s hoops program.

For those who are unfamiliar, this was my 2022 description of Moneyball.

Michael Lewis’ classic book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game tells the story of the 2002 Oakland Athletics. The film version was written by known creative liberties-taker (and my personal writing hero) Aaron Sorkin and stars perpetually-eating-onscreen Brad Pitt as Oakland General Manager Billy Beane. In the film/book, Beane and his newly minted sidekick Paul DePodesta (called “Peter Brand” and portrayed by Mr. Homie Superpowers himself Jonah Hill) tried to find a way to overcome their moribund situation.

The 2002 Oakland A’s were saddled with baseball’s lowest payroll by ownership. Beane, who had achieved some success (including a 100+ win season in 2001), thought it was time for him to cash in his clout for more salary dollars for roster construction. Ownership shot him down faster than a short guy at a Victoria’s Secret red carpet event. They were set to lose high-ticket stars Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi to free agency. Clubs with deeper pockets would undoubtedly come calling and outbid the Bay Area pauper franchise. It came down to what Ice Cube would call a game of “big bank take little bank.”

So Beane and “Brand” set out to find a way to acquire talent at a lower price that could recreate the statistical output of Giambi and Damon.

Illinois basketball is far too successful to look under rocks to find market inefficiencies. They have a powerful head coach, a tremendous core of assistant coaches, and a talented roster. They’re coming off an Elite 8 run and reshaped their roster on the fly with international players and a late-cycle five-star reclassification.

But this column is about how Oakland set out to replace Jason Giambi: in the aggregate.

Jason Giambi was a $100+ million player. A team with a low budget can’t go out and sign a power-hitting on-base machine with plate discipline and star charisma. But perhaps the Oakland A’s could find a combination of cheaper players who can replicate Giambi’s on-base skills and ability to create runs.

So what does that desire have to do with the Illini?

“This is Terrence Shannon Jr.”

He was a superstar college basketball player for the first Illinois team to get to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in a generation. He was a high-end defender with physicality, intensity, and aggression. Offensively, he was a three-level scorer with punishing skill at the rim and an evolving jump shot.

But you already know this.

The point is that one doesn’t simply patch over a TSJ-sized hole in the roster.

Unless you get an established All-American, you have to replace him in the aggregate.

TCR // David J. Pollak

So is Illinois succeeding in replacing Terrence in the aggregate?

Sort of. But there is room for improvement. The season is young, and there is a chance to evolve.

Illinois is ostensibly attempting to replace TSJ’s production with multiple players.

To make that replacement real, Illinois had to go back to the days of Underwood wanting to get shots off early in the shot clock. And that required getting more shooters to go along with a dynamic “action guy” to initiate in the half-court.

Tomislav Ivisic and Kylan Boswell have clearly defined roles. Everyone else is subject to the “ride the hot hand” corollary of roster construction.

I’d like to focus on the four players who have been largely called upon to replace Terrence Shannon Jr. in the aggregate.

Kasparas Jakucionis

TCR // David J. Pollak

Jakucionis’ performance has been one of the primary highlights of Illinois’ season. Early in the season, he didn’t aggressively look for his shot. He demonstrated his prodigal if inconsistent playmaking skills. He took over a lot of the facilitation that Shannon (along with Marcus Domask) handled last season.

He’s scored over 20 points in the previous six games. His penchant for late-game step-back threes is becoming the stuff of legend. He is a rising star in college basketball and will be among the frontrunners for Big Ten Player of the Year. He’s at over 40% from behind the arc and he has the on-court bravado of a seasoned pro despite being 18.

He’s no Egor Demin consolation prize. He’s a star. He’s done his part to replace Shannon.

But he needs to protect the ball better. He’s had five games with 5+ turnovers so far this season. Late in games, it’s incumbent upon him to cut down on the sloppiness. That’s how he can make an even bigger impact: be the mature decision-maker Shannon was.

Yes, that is a lot to ask of a first-year college player. But he’s the current Champaign Supernova, and that falls on his young shoulders.*

(And those of Kylan Boswell, of course.)

Tre White

Tre White brings the length and aggression on defense that were hallmarks of Shannon’s game. At 6’7, his size bothers opposing guards. He’s had 8+ rebounds on four occasions. His ability on the defensive glass has helped the Illini transition game. His offensive rebounding has enabled second-chance points for an Illini team that can lack physicality with Humrichous on the floor.

It was a controversial decision to start White over a certain freshman star (don’t worry, we’ll get there). But White’s two-way presence and excellent free throw shooting have cemented his current spot in both the opening and closing lineups of an Illini team that will have plenty of close games.

White has been efficient. He’s assuaged the biggest concerns trailing his stint at Louisville.

Former Illinois assistant said that Skyy Clark strongly recommended that White transfer to Illinois. The former top-50 recruit has fit in as a high-level role player on a team with Big Ten title aspirations.

TCR // Jack Jungmann

Will Riley/Ben Humrichous

How it started: 13+ point performances in 5 out of his first 6 games while shooting 17-31 from three in those games.

How it’s going: 21 misses in his last 23 attempts from behind the arc.

It’s fair to expect freshmen to look like freshmen. Even the most gifted prodigies go through slumps. And Will Riley’s ability to go on an all-time heater is a club he has in his bag. We’ve seen it both in college and on the grassroots circuit.

Only a small number of current college basketball players are on Will Riley’s talent level.

At some point, the results have to start matching the talent again.

Riley’s shooting woes wouldn’t be as detrimental if fellow newcomer Ben Humrichous, the other big-time shotmaker signed by the Illini, weren’t mired in a 4-21 slump.

Those are two excellent shooters who are not making shots at all.

This should be an aberration. And if it is, have confidence that this staff used the off-week to work on what is ailing the perimeter game.

If Humrichous isn’t making threes, he isn’t providing a ton of peripheral value. The offensive savant-like potential hasn’t come to fruition.

Illinois can’t beat good teams with both Humrichous and Riley missing high volumes of open shots. The elite foul shooting and defense have been two welcomed (massive) surprises that have kept Illinois afloat during lean shooting games.

Defense and high-end foul shooting are two major traits Terrence Shannon Jr. brought to the Illini last season. And the team has bought into excelling at those skills.

Conclusion

Illinois has a good plan to replace a superstar. It takes several players with divergent skill sets to rise to once-in-a-generation levels of success. And to their credit, the players and staff are moving in a positive program direction.

Again, one does not simply replace a legend. But as conference play intensifies, the Illini have the pieces in place to embark on another tremendous run.

But just as last year’s triumph streak ended against UConn, perhaps Chicago State is the get-right spot needed to end the struggle-shooting of Will Riley and Ben Humrichous.