When Cam Ward’s senior year began at Columbia High School in south Texas, his stat line from Game 1 read as follows: 3-of-11 passing for 79 yards and two interceptions (albeit in a dominant 38-7 win).

If you saw that without looking deeper, you’d assume Columbia’s quarterback might be headed for a position change — or he’d be a few months from becoming a regular college football fan like the rest of us. When Ward joined FCS Incarnate Word (the only school to offer him a scholarship) in 2020, he did so having barely eclipsed 1,000 yards passing as a high school senior, with a sub-50 percent completion rate and a combined 17 touchdown passes over three years as a starter.

By the end of his first college football season, however, Ward had rewritten the Cardinals record books, while playing just six games.

Ward eventually transferred to Washington State before opting to finish his college career at Miami. This season, he’s thrown for 3,494 yards, 32 touchdowns and six picks and stands as one of the Heisman Trophy front-runners (despite a slide following a loss at Georgia Tech), on a team battling for a College Football Playoff berth.

He’s also emerged as the 2025 NFL Draft’s potential QB1. His story is worthy of a movie script, but his true draft evaluation remains complicated, for a bunch of reasons — many beyond his control.

So, how real is Cam Ward’s rise?

Projecting the future despite the present is insanely difficult, but it’s also the job of a football coach. And when Eric Morris, then head coach at Incarnate Word (and now at North Texas) first saw Ward play in high school, he did his job.

Ward began his football journey as a big kid with a hidden arm. Columbia was a small, run-first program south of Houston. When Ward’s prep career started, the only throws he had to make were screens and quick outs.

But by his senior year, Ward had blossomed into a rocked-up, 6-foot-2, 230-pound athlete who — when the play calls allowed it — showed off how he could throw a football as far as he wanted to. That arm talent was completely unpolished, of course, and nearly unused. In fact, Morris reportedly didn’t discover Ward until he saw him at a satellite camp and was able to consider what the QB’s game might look like in a more modern offense with actual training.

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Morris was the first coach in Ward’s life to show any confidence in his arm. Ward did the rest.

His first start at Incarnate Ward was an example of unshakable confidence, perhaps Ward’s greatest non-physical trait. The offense kept it relatively simple, and there were moments in which Ward looked lost, but he never showed an ounce of hesitation. He began ignoring open check-down throws for more difficult shots downfield — shots he was hitting, because, suddenly, someone said he could.

He finished that opener, in the spring of 2021, 24-of-35 for 306 yards and four touchdowns. He went on to throw for 6,908 yards over two years at Incarnate Word, then added another 6,963 yards over two years at Washington State.

Before we get into the problems with Ward’s evaluation — and there are a few — it’s important to note that Ward, above all else, is a truly self-assured football player who has improved every year he’s played, even while transferring up in competition level twice. Despite his age (23 in May), his developmental trajectory is outstanding.

The question for NFL teams to consider, then, becomes: Will Ward’s critical wrinkles be ironed out in a year or so as he continues to improve or has he finally maxed out into “what you see is what you get” territory?

Frankly, even if the answer is the latter, Ward’s appeal relative to (most of) the rest of the 2025 QB draft class still might be way too much for needy GMs to overlook. Ward is not a top-10 player in the ’25 class, and possibly not even a top-25 player. Barring a late-season or pre-draft collapse, however, he looks like a top-10 pick.

Too many teams need quarterbacks — and Ward’s arm, as we can see, is legitimate.

He can make every throw on the field. He’s aggressive, confident over the middle, doesn’t get rattled by bad plays, and his arm just never tires.

Many have focused on the litany of highlight-reel pocket escapes we’ve seen from Ward this season. And while being able to play off-platform is certainly part of Ward’s repertoire, it’s important to watch him work from the pocket, too. He has improved so much there, to a point where he’s been one of the best anticipatory passers in all of college football this season. He’s not afraid to take chances because he trusts his arm, understands the offense and isn’t confused by most of the coverages he’s seeing.

Entering next Saturday’s game against Wake Forest, Ward rates No. 2 among FBS quarterbacks in third-and-long conversion rate (45.8 percent), No. 4 in EPA/dropback (.39), No. 1 in middle-field passing yards (1,464) and No. 2 in completions of 20-plus yards (25.7 percent of his throws).

All of those successes require a QB to trust their arm, their offense and their ability to read a defense.

That said, there have been many times throughout Ward’s college run when he’s taken chances against lesser defenses that he probably wouldn’t have gotten away with against tougher opponents. That’s part of the challenge in analyzing his run at Miami. However, you can go through his tape at every stop and find that the reward from those vertical gambles outweighs the risk — by a staggering amount. He makes it work.

Will the same hold true when he faces NFL defenses? Great question, and it’s why it will be important for NFL evaluators that Ward and Miami find their way into the College Football Playoff — Ward needs to be tested more by elite competition.

The other issue that’s yet to impact Ward negatively much this season has been his poor ball placement, often brought on by a clunky or loose passing process. Ward is still very much an unrefined player, even if his footwork is more consistent today than it was in 2021. He’s cut down on many of the “YOLO” throws that were all over his Incarnate Word tape and still filtered into his Washington State run.

At the same time, Ward still can get stuck on a read and miss an open receiver or leave yards on the field because his timing is off.

As amazing as Ward has been this year, especially showing off his competitive mindset during all of Miami’s dramatic comebacks, the biggest critique of his game is he’s leaving meat on the bone.

Miami’s offense is outstanding — multiple future pros in the receivers room, a steady run game, an offensive coordinator (Shannon Dawson) who might win the Broyles Award and Ward’s gifted right arm. So when Ward misses a guy, you really see it because those pass catches are often very open.

Another problem: The number of times he’s been able to throw a quick rope based completely off one pre-snap read — and gotten away with that approach — will not hold at the next level. There are too many instances of Ward ignoring the pass concept and simply taking a chance right away because he trusts himself and his receiver to win their individual battles.

That’s not a recipe for winning football in the NFL, no matter how good you are. Every Patrick Mahomes miracle escape starts with him working a concept in structure.

This is a third-and-medium situation. Ward sees a single-high safety and the way the corners are aligned and thinks he’s getting man coverage. Miami has a mesh concept on with a deep-corner route — likely an alert, meaning you only throw it if you like the matchup — to the wide side. Instead of working the progression, Ward takes the snap and immediately goes to that corner route.

Only it’s not man coverage at all. Ward does recognize that and avoids an interception, but only by pushing the ball out of bounds on an incredibly tight-window throw and ignoring two open receivers over the middle of the field.

Ward has cut down on his interceptions, but his overall accuracy and play-to-play decision-making are still areas that need further development.

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Ward is worth a first-round pick in a similar way to how Shedeur Sanders is worth it: Physically, athletically and mentally, those QBs have enough goods that really can’t be taught to survive — maybe even do well — in the NFL; each also has so much work ahead of them to make full-time adjustments to NFL defenses.

Jayden Daniels is in the midst of a wonderful rookie season, but the Commanders also have been very careful with him and have benefitted (so far) from a favorable schedule. Not every situation will be like that for an incoming rookie QB.

Ward is worthy of the QB1 discussion, something we wouldn’t have said two months ago. We have proof he’s a consistent worker who will continue to improve over time. However, he will need that time if he’s truly going to reach his true potential with the team that picks him.

Should a franchise draft Ward with a plan similar to what the Minnesota Vikings or Atlanta Falcons have had this year with J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr., respectively, it’ll be a fine choice. If a team drafts Ward and throws him into the ocean the way Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson were, don’t be shocked if Ward delivers similar results.

(Photo: Leonardo Fernandez / Getty Images)