It was another madcap weekend of college football.
We saw our fourth top-five matchup of the season — the most we’ve had since 2011 (and if we get another one, it’ll be the first time we’ve had five since 1996) — plus the top two Big 12 teams in action lost as comfortable favorites. Louisville beat Clemson for the first time (and on the road, no less), Texas A&M got pummeled in its first game as a top-10 team, and Indiana (gasp) trailed for the first time all season but still won its ninth game of the year for just the third time in program history. And to top it all off, we saw one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport at the Division II level.
After all that wild action, though, the college football landscape looks awfully … familiar. The top three teams in the preseason AP poll (Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon) are the top three teams now, albeit in a slightly different order. The seven teams that began the season with at least a 50% chance of making the expanded College Football Playoff, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor, are all still above 50% now (and three are above 90%). Boise State began the season as the Group of 5’s favorite to reach the CFP and is an even bigger favorite now. There are eight teams within one game of a spot in the Big 12 championship game — about as chaotic as we dreamed before the season.
It’s been quite a roller-coaster ride, but the journey has taken us about where we expected to be. Still, there’s a rumble beneath the surface. Of the nine teams ranked between 10th and 18th in last week’s AP poll, five lost. And suddenly quite a few teams have found a form that is awfully different from their form when they began the season (or even began October). So let’s do a little trendspotting. Who appears to be moving up in the world? Who appears to have run out of gas? What impact might that have on the sport’s biggest prizes?
Jump to a section:
Bracket-busters | On the outs?
Conference race risers
Who’s hot? | Who’s not?
Hottest QBs | Week 10 surprises
Heisman of week | 10 favorite games
Yes, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, Texas and other heavyweights still have excellent odds of playing in the CFP, just as they did at the beginning of the season. But that doesn’t mean things haven’t shifted. It’s part of the fun of an expanded playoff that we have lots of bids (automatic and at-large) to track, after all. And over the past five Saturdays, 10 teams have seen their playoff odds improve by at least 10 percentage points.
Teams that have raised their playoff odds the most since Oct. 1:
Indiana: up 48.0% (from 38.6% to 86.6%)
Oregon: up 36.1% (from 59.5% to 95.6%)
SMU: up 34.1% (from 13.1% to 47.2%)
BYU: up 33.7% (from 24.2% to 57.9%)
Boise State: up 32.8% (from 37.7% to 70.5%)
Miami: up 30.9% (from 61.9% to 92.8%)
Georgia: up 20.2% (from 72.1% to 92.3%)
Penn State: up 13.2% (from 60.5% to 73.7%)
Notre Dame: up 11.7% (from 46.1% to 57.8%)
Army: up 11.3% (from 9.2% to 20.5%)
Oregon, Georgia and Miami all went from likely to very bloody likely, while Notre Dame and (despite a Week 10 loss) Penn State have solidified their cases a little bit, probably from a lot of teams around them falling. And Boise State’s case for the guaranteed Group of 5 slot has improved as former contenders such as James Madison and UNLV (at BSU’s hands) have fallen. Army plays at North Texas and vs. Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium over the next three weeks. If the Black Knights, who survived Air Force without star quarterback Bryson Daily on Saturday, are still unbeaten after the Notre Dame game, both their odds and Boise State’s will likely have shifted quite a bit even if BSU has also handled its business.
There are three stunners near the top of this list, though. Indiana began the season projected 81st in SP+, BYU was 69th and SMU, comparatively proven, was 27th. With their brilliant starts — Indiana and BYU remain unbeaten, while SMU has lost only to BYU and pummeled previously unbeaten Pitt at home Saturday — they have moved their way into either being playoff shoo-ins (IU) or coin flips (SMU and BYU). One of the major reasons I was so excited about an expanded playoff was the new and unexpected names that could get involved. I would say Indiana, BYU and SMU all qualify as new and unexpected. And Indiana has remained unbeaten with stunning ease.
I guess we know how we’ll respond when behind‼️#GOIU https://t.co/1Fu57DnxRi
— Curt Cignetti (@CCignettiIU) November 2, 2024
Granted, the Hoosiers have yet to play a team in the SP+ top 30 — hell, they’ve played only two in the top 60 — but they haven’t given any indication that they would not be ready for a stiffer test. A week ago, they beat Washington without injured star quarterback Kurtis Rourke, and Saturday in East Lansing, against a Michigan State team that had lost by 31 to Ohio State a few weeks earlier, IU spotted the hosts 10 points, then scored the next 47. They host a physical but limited Michigan this coming week, then take a bye week before heading to Columbus for what should legitimately be the biggest Indiana football game since the 1960s. The next test they don’t pass with flying colors will be the first.
Playoff odds are the definition of zero-sum, so with the teams above advancing, a few have seen their odds fall since Oct. 1 as well.
Teams that have seen their playoff odds sink the most since Oct. 1:
Alabama: down 35.9% (from 91.4% to 55.5%)
James Madison: down 29.6% (from 29.8% to 0.2%)
Clemson: down 25.6% (from 32.6% to 7.0%)
Missouri: down 25.5% (from 32.0% to 6.5%)
UNLV: down 22.4% (from 31.3% to 8.9%)
Louisville: down 20.4% (from 22.4% to 2.0%)
Texas: down 13.6% (from 91.5% to 77.9%)
Ole Miss: down 11.3% (from 40.5% to 29.2%)
Texas went from “near certainty” to “still some work to do” after the loss to Georgia, but the Longhorns are still looking good. But with two losses, both Alabama’s and Ole Miss’ margins for error have nearly vanished; three-loss teams will get into the CFP from time to time, but they’re going to need some breaks, and both need to win out to feel good about their chances. Both face enormous tests this coming Saturday: Alabama visits LSU, while Ole Miss, fresh off of a surprisingly easy blowout of Arkansas, welcomes Georgia to Oxford. With the weakest schedule in the conference and no marquee wins (or future marquee win opportunities, unless you count South Carolina), two-loss Missouri has to win out and hope for a lot of help. To say the least, that will probably be difficult with either a banged-up or out-of-commission Brady Cook.
The other teams on this list either lost all of their margin for error or just lost hope altogether. Clemson got beaten in every department in Saturday’s loss to Louisville, and while the Tigers could still earn an automatic bid by winning the ACC, their odds of doing so have sunk significantly. Louisville’s hopes, meanwhile, had already run aground after 7-point losses to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami.
At the G5 level, UNLV’s odds took a massive hit after losses to Syracuse and Boise State, though the Rebels could at least give themselves a fighting chance by winning out and taking the Mountain West title from BSU. And a pair of upset road losses to Louisiana-Monroe and Georgia Southern all but eliminated JMU.
A month ago, it was easy to consider BYU and SMU as conference title dark horses at best. But BYU has dodged lightning bolts to remain unbeaten in the Big 12, and with Iowa State and Kansas State both suffering upset losses Saturday, the Cougars are now comfortably the conference title favorites, per SP+. (With the Big 12, this could all change massively in just seven more days.) SMU, meanwhile, has inserted itself into the conversation as the clear vice-favorite to Miami in the ACC.
Power conference teams whose conference title odds have improved the most since Oct. 1:
BYU: up 34.4% (from 8.7% to 43.1%)
Miami: up 30.8% (from 31.3% to 62.1%)
Oregon: up 26.4% (from 20.4% to 46.8%)
SMU: up 22.0% (from 10.5% to 32.5%)
Georgia: up 20.0% (from 5.3% to 25.4%)
The SEC remains completely up in the air, with no team having title chances greater than 30.8% at the moment, but Oregon, BYU and especially Miami have all risen to either nearly 50% or well past it.
Group of 5 teams whose odds have improved the most:
Louisiana: up 38.4% (from 18.0% to 56.4%)
Western Kentucky: up 36.7% (from 16.5% to 53.2%)
Army: up 34.7% (from 31.3% to 66.0%)
Boise State: up 33.6% (from 46.1% to 79.7%)
Jacksonville State: up 25.5% (from 2.9% to 28.4%)
With Liberty suffering back-to-back losses to Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State, the CUSA title race has coalesced around two other teams: Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State. Liberty (10.6%) and Sam Houston (7.8%) still have a puncher’s chance, but a month ago WKU and JSU had a combined 19% chance of winning the crown. Now it’s a combined 82%.
Because of a 6-0 conference record, Army is all but assured of reaching the AAC championship game, and the Black Knights’ title odds are extremely healthy because of it. But watch out for Tulane. The Green Wave are rising in the SP+ ratings, and if they get past Navy and Memphis in the coming weeks, they could get up to nearly 50% odds even if Army continues to win as well.
“OK, yes, Indiana and BYU are great stories,” you’re saying. “We knew that.” I’m sure you did — it’s been hard to miss, and besides, you’re beautiful and smart and following all of the season’s minutiae closely. But now let’s dive into some more recently developing trends.
One way I’ve found to look at who’s trending up or down is to compare teams’ recent scoring margins to SP+ projections, weighted for recency — so, the most recent game gets the most weight, the second-most recent gets the second-most, and so on, over a five-game period. With that method, here are the teams that have soared past SP+ assumptions in recent weeks. (None of this is guaranteed to last, of course. Sometimes trends are fool’s gold.)
1. South Carolina. In Friday’s preview, I shared that Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks had generally mediocre stats across the board, with one exception: a nasty, relentless and maybe the country’s best pass rush. They’re becoming more than that, though. Over the last three games, since a demoralizing blowout loss to Ole Miss dropped them to 3-2 and 31st in SP+, they’ve overachieved against SP+ projections by 17.2 points (in a tight loss at Alabama), 31.5 points (in a blowout of Oklahoma) and 30.2 points (in a blowout of Texas A&M).
Saturday’s performance was magnificent. The Gamecocks still weren’t overly efficient — I don’t think that’s possible with this young version of quarterback LaNorris Sellers — but they blew the Aggies away by matching their physicality and blowing by them with gains of 57, 52, 40, 36, 28 and 27 yards. And the pass rush showed up late to turn the game into a laugher. This team is growing in confidence very quickly.
2. Jacksonville State. It’s the year of the Gamecock! The other roosters of FBS, Rich Rodriguez’s Jax State, have overachieved against projections for six straight games and, in pure RichRod style, have rushed for at least 334 yards in four straight games. They are the hottest team in the G5 universe.
3. Indiana. Only one team has overachieved against projections in all nine games. One day SP+ will catch up to the Hoosiers, but it hasn’t yet.
4. Colorado. Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes have overachieved against projections in six straight games since a blowout loss to Nebraska, and after Kansas State and Iowa State both fell Saturday, CU has a 12% chance of winning the Big 12, fourth best in the league. Keep overachieving and things get very interesting.
5. Miami (Ohio). After an awful 1-4 start, Miami of Ohio has begun to look like the team it was supposed to be all year. The RedHawks have won three in a row by an average of 38-14, overachieving against projections by 21.1 points per game in that span, and are part of a three-way tie for second in the MAC.
6. UCLA
7. Houston
8. Tulane
9. Vanderbilt
10. Notre Dame
Again, we’re always dealing with zero-sum ventures here. If the teams above are overachieving, someone has to be underachieving.
134. Arizona. After last year’s 10-win campaign, Arizona began the season near the top of the Big 12’s pecking order. It’s been a free fall all year. The Wildcats have only overachieved against projections in one game (their road win over a Utah team also on this list), and they’ve underachieved by at least 28 points in two of their last three games. I know injuries have taken a toll, but damn.
133. Tulsa. Kevin Wilson’s 3-6 Golden Hurricane enjoyed a staggering comeback win last week against UTSA. That was, as they say in soccer, against the run of play. In their last four other games, they’ve underachieved against projections by 23.8, 28.4, 12.6 and 35.8 points. They host two bad AAC teams (East Carolina and Florida Atlantic) in the coming weeks, so they could rally. But it doesn’t look likely.
132. Liberty. Despite returning a lot of the stars from last year’s 13-win CUSA championship team, Jamey Chadwell’s Flames just haven’t had it this year. They eked out tight wins over New Mexico State and Florida International to remain unbeaten into late October, but they underachieved against projections in all but one game, and they’ve averaged 21.2 points of underachievement in their last three games, including two upset losses.
131. Oregon State. Barely three weeks ago, Oregon State was 4-1 and thinking top-50 thoughts. Now the Beavers are 4-4 and 81st in SP+. They’ve underachieved for four straight games and absolutely no-showed in a 44-7 loss to Cal in Week 9. Coming off a bye week, they’re projected favorites in games against San Jose State and Air Force before a de-facto Pac-12 championship throwdown against Washington State. But the ship needs righting quickly.
130. Maryland. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Maryland showed promise during a solid September stop, then mostly collapsed in October. The Terrapins have underachieved four times in five games, stopping only to surprise visiting USC in a comeback win two weeks ago. They responded to this happiness by getting blown out at Minnesota. The good news? It’s not October anymore. The bad news: The Terps face Oregon, Iowa and Penn State in November.
129. Rutgers
128. Utah
127. Missouri
126. Oklahoma State
125. Coastal Carolina
Based on each player’s Total QBR over the past month or so, here are college football’s best quarterbacks at the moment:
1. Bryson Daily, Army (97.9)
2. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (93.3)
3. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana (93.2)
4. Ethan Garbers, UCLA (91.9)
5. Maddux Madsen, Boise State (89.6)
6. Cam Ward, Miami (88.3)
7. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (86.9)
8. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame (86.6)
9. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State (85.8)
10. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor (85.3)
Gabriel, Ward and Dart should all finish in the Heisman top 10 — and they all show up on this week’s Heisman list below — and Leonard and (especially) Rourke have been very good for most of the season. But Garbers has been a sudden revelation, and Leavitt and Robertson are making the Big 12 an even messier and more balanced conference.
All hail Bryson Daily, however, and all hail Army for figuring out a way past rival Air Force without him. With Dewayne Coleman behind center, the Black Knights punted twice and settled for two field goals in the first half, and the game was surprisingly tight (Army ahead 6-3) at halftime. But Kanye Udoh took over in the second half, scoring twice and finishing with 158 rushing yards in what would be a comfortable 20-3 win.
Like Indiana, Army proved itself by playing without its star. Needless to say, the Black Knights will need Daily at full capability to upset Notre Dame in a few weeks.
Also near the top: Ohio State’s Will Howard is 11th since Oct. 1, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders is 13th, and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia is 19th. (Unfortunately for Pavia, “How well you haunt Hugh Freeze’s dreams” isn’t part of the Total QBR formula.)
Here are the five results that were furthest away from their respective SP+ projections. Call them either surprises or bad projections, I guess.
UCF 56, Arizona 12 (projection: UCF by 6.5): I have hopped on and off of the UCF bandwagon about 17 times this year — sometimes during the middle of games — but the Knights’ upside was on full display Saturday. Granted, Arizona appears to have just about packed it in, but with its third starting QB of the season (redshirt freshman Dylan Rizk), UCF gained 602 yards at 8.7 per play and, after a missed field goal on the first possession, scored touchdowns on the next seven. Absolute destruction.
UAB 59, Tulsa 21 (projection: UAB by 2.2): Tulsa apparently spent all of its remaining juice in last week’s wild comeback win over UTSA because the Golden Hurricane had absolutely nothing to offer in this one. UAB’s Jalen Kitna threw for 404 yards and six TDs, and the Blazers showed signs of life for the first time since September.
South Carolina 44, No. 10 Texas A&M 20 (projection: A&M by 6.2): South Carolina basically pulled an A&M on A&M. Last week, the Aggies stormed past LSU in the second half with extreme physicality; on Saturday night in Columbia, the Gamecocks finished the game on a 27-0 run, just outmuscling A&M at the end.
Rice 24, Navy 10 (projection: Navy by 12.3): Navy’s playoff hopes fell apart with last week’s loss to Notre Dame, and after a storm delay in Houston, the Midshipmen just no-showed. Rice has been showing signs of life and jumped out to a 17-0 lead early in the second quarter, and Navy just couldn’t muster much of a response.
Iowa 42, Wisconsin 10 (projection: Iowa by 6.3): I tried to warn you in Friday’s preview, when I noted that Iowa was winning home games by an average of 40-15 and Wisconsin was losing games to top-30 opponents by an average of 36-15. But this one ended up even worse than expected.
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (25-for-31 for 515 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 55 rushing yards against Arkansas).
2. Cam Ward, Miami (25-for-41 for 400 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT against Duke).
3. Cam Skattebo, Arizona State (23 rushes for 153 yards and a touchdown, plus 121 receiving yards and two scores against Oklahoma State).
4. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (22-for-34 for 294 yards and a touchdown, plus 23 rushing yards and a score against Michigan).
5. Jordan Watkins, Ole Miss (8 catches for 254 yards and 5 touchdowns against Arkansas).
6. Maddux Madsen, Boise State (24-for-32 for 307 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 26 rushing yards against San Diego State).
7. Omarion Hampton, North Carolina (32 carries for 172 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 93 receiving yards and a touchdown against Florida State).
8. Eric Rivers, Florida International (11 catches for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns against New Mexico State).
9. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (13-for-27 for 244 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 106 rushing yards and a touchdown against Texas A&M).
10. Tre Stewart, Jacksonville State (27 carries for 232 yards and 4 touchdowns against Liberty).
It was hard to stand out in Week 10. Baylor’s Bryson Washington posted 218 yards from scrimmage in a rivalry win over TCU, and NC State quarterback CJ Bailey went 18-for-20, and they both had to settle for the honorable mention list below. So did some guy named Jeanty.
Among the standouts, though, were two standouts. Jaxson Dart and Cam Ward combined for 915 passing yards and 11 touchdowns Saturday, with Dart and his Rebels using a second-quarter surge to snuff out any Arkansas upset hopes and Ward and his Canes running up the score late on Duke. They were a very obvious 1-2 this week, even among stiff competition.
Honorable mention:
• Beau Atkinson, North Carolina (5 tackles, 4.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks against Florida State).
• CJ Bailey, NC State (18-for-20 for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 28 rushing yards against Stanford).
• Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (31 carries for 149 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 31 receiving yards against San Diego State).
• Jalen Kitna, UAB (25-for-32 for 404 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 27 rushing yards against Tulsa).
• Eli Sanders, New Mexico (17 carries for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns against Wyoming).
• Raheim Sanders, South Carolina (20 carries for 144 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 92 receiving yards against Texas A&M).
• Bryson Washington, Baylor (26 carries for 196 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 22 receiving yards against TCU).
Through 10 weeks, here are your points leaders:
1. Cam Ward, Miami (49)
2. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (41)
3. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon (29)
4. Travis Hunter, Colorado (26)
5. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (24)
6. Cam Skattebo, Arizona State (20)
7. Jalen Milroe, Alabama (18)
8T. Miller Moss, USC (15)
8T. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (15)
10. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana (14)
Ward pulled ahead of Jeanty, who ceded the floor to his quarterback against SDSU — the Aztecs said, “We’re going to make anyone but Jeanty beat us,” so Maddux Madsen threw for 307 yards and made this week’s Heisman list himself. Ward is now the betting favorite at ESPN BET as well, followed closely by Hunter and Gabriel. This is Ward’s race to lose, I think, though the Canes don’t have any marquee games left until the ACC championship game, and Gabriel in particular is starting to pick up steam.
And hey, if Dart is incredible in a win over Georgia next week …
1. Division II: Southern Nazarene 18, No. 3 Ouachita Baptist 17. OK, we have to talk about this one for a moment. One of the greatest upsets in the history of college football happened in Arkadelphia, Arkansas, on Halloween night. Ouachita Baptist was 8-0 and coming off a huge upset of defending national champion Harding; the Tigers had moved to No. 3 in the D-II polls. Southern Nazarene, meanwhile, was 0-8; the Crimson Storm lost to Harding 59-0 in Week 2. In my weekly all-division, SP+ top 764 rankings, OBU was No. 180, two spots ahead of Akron, while SNU was No. 520. Official SP+ projection for this game: OBU by 45.9. Instead …
FINAL SCORE | FB | @NCAADII
🚨 MAJOR UPSET ALERT 🚨
Southern Nazarene 18@SNUFootball (1-8)
#3 Ouachita Baptist 17@OuachitaFB (8-1)
This day will live on forever within the Southern Nazarene program! The Crimson Storm pick up their 1st win of the season and 100th win in… pic.twitter.com/Y02TCWrAoR
— Oklahoma Local Sports Network (@OklahomaLocalSN) November 1, 2024
SNU forced three turnovers and had just one drive of more than 36 yards all night: the last one. After the defense made stop after stop, the Storm drove 72 yards in nine plays to score the game-winning touchdown (Bryson Evans to Dalen Smith) with 24 seconds left. By SP+ projections, this is the equivalent of Georgia losing to FIU. Incredible.
2. Toledo 29, Eastern Michigan 28. On the eve of midweek MACtion, we got Hail Mary MACtion.
HAIL. MARY. MACTION!!!! @EMUFB | #MACtion pic.twitter.com/RD92rel9nc
— #MACtion (@MACSports) November 2, 2024
Toledo came back from 12 down in the fourth quarter and took the lead with just under two minutes left, only to watch EMU score on the last play of the game … and then drop the game-winning 2-point conversion pass.
3. NAIA: No. 12 MidAmerica Nazarene 48, No. 7 Benedictine 47. Just bask in the glorious last seven minutes of one of NAIA’s biggest games of the week.
🏈 check out highlights from the final 7 minutes of this @MNUFootball_ classic! #FearTheNeer pic.twitter.com/JbroetvOD4
— MNU Sports (@mnusports) November 3, 2024
Down 31-27, MidAmerica Nazarene scored a touchdown, recovered a chipshot kickoff and scored again to go up 10. Benedictine responded with a 53-yard field goal, forced a punt and scored the tying touchdown with 1:53 left. MNU drove right back down and scored what was surely the game winner with 19 seconds left … until Benedictine’s JaShawn Todd returned the ensuing kickoff for a TD. The Ravens went for the win, but what can only be described as a 2-point Hail Mary failed.
Big week for Nazarene football … and failed game-ending 2-point conversions.
4. Texas Tech 23, No. 11 Iowa State 22. The game that flipped the Big 12 race on its ear. Well, one of two, anyway. Texas Tech led for more than 40 minutes before Rocco Becht and Iowa State pulled some more home heroics and took a 22-17 lead with 2:11 remaining. The Cyclones scored too soon. Behren Morton completed a fourth-and-7 pass to Josh Kelly, then Tahj Brooks scored the game winner with 20 seconds left.
5. Washington 26, USC 21. These teams came into the game a combined 1-6 in one-score finishes, but something had to give between the movable force and resistible object. Washington stuffed a fourth-and-goal attempt with 5:04 left, then forced three straight incompletions after USC drove back inside the UW 20 in the last 30 seconds. USC is now 19 points from an unbeaten record … and is 4-5 overall.
6. Syracuse 38, Virginia Tech 31 (OT). This one’s going to hurt in Blacksburg for a while. With both quarterback Kyron Drones and running back Bhayshul Tuten, their two best offensive players, out with injury, the Hokies got 31 points and 455 yards from backup QB Collin Schlee & Co., but somehow lost anyway. They led 21-3 early in the second half, then took another lead with 5:16 left in regulation, but LeQuin Allen scored with 29 seconds left, then scored again in OT. Schlee, banged up himself, fumbled on Tech’s overtime possession, and Cuse moved to 6-2.
7. Houston 24, No. 17 Kansas State 19. Delayed by a storm and disjointed because of a sloppy track, this game didn’t have much rhythm, but it did have drama. And a great win probability chart.
Houston led early, but K-State took a two-score lead into the fourth quarter. Zeon Chriss threw a short touchdown pass to make it 19-17, then raced 41 yards with 2:31 remaining to give the Cougars a shocking lead. Michael Batton picked off an Avery Johnson pass, and after a dreadful start to Willie Fritz’s first season in charge, Houston scored its third win in four games.
8. Baylor 37, TCU 34. Exactly the type of track meet you hope for from The Revivalry. Neither team led by more than seven, and 10 of the game’s 12 scores either tied the game or gave someone the lead. It was destined to end on a last-second field goal, and the honors went to Isaiah Hankins, whose 33-yarder gave the Bears their third straight win after a 2-4 start.
9. Wyoming 49, New Mexico 45. New Mexico has been involved in quite a few track meets this season — five of their nine games have featured at least 89 total points. Wyoming games, meanwhile, didn’t feature much scoring at all. Advantage Lobos? Not so fast, my friend! The game was tied at 35 at halftime, but after UNM took a 45-35 lead into the fourth quarter, Wyoming scored on a pick-six and a 27-yard pass from Kaden Anderson to Justin Stevenson, and Tyce Westland recovered a Devon Dampier fumble near midfield. The Cowboys moved the chains twice and sealed the win.
10. Division III: No. 21 Wisconsin-La Crosse 33, Wisconsin-Stout 31. Hello, and welcome to “This Week in the WIAC!” It wouldn’t be a Sunday column without a trip to Wisconsin; this week’s wild, title-race-altering battle took place in Don & Nona Williams Stadium in Stout, where UW-La Crosse used a 12-0 run to take the lead into the fourth quarter. The lead changed hands four times in four scores, but Maddox Pratt’s 25-yard field goal gave the Eagles the lead, and Carver Cram picked off a Hail Mary on the final play. That moved both teams to 3-2 in WIAC play, each one game behind 4-1 UW-Platteville and UW-Oshkosh in one of the sport’s most delightful conference title races.
Honorable mention:
• Georgia Southern 34, South Alabama 30
• FCS: Harvard 31, No. 22 Dartmouth 27
• Hawai’i 21, Fresno State 20
• FCS: No. 16 Mercer 37, East Tennessee State 31
• No. 4 Ohio State 20, No. 3 Penn State 13
Tuesday: Miami (Ohio) at Ball State (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). Looking to distract yourself for, say, three to four hours on election night? MACtion is here for you! Miami will be comfortably favored in this one, but Ball State has won a pair of two-point magic acts in its past three games. It looks like the weather will be a little too nice for the full MACtion experience, but this one should be entertaining.
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