Boston College Eagles Preview

Posted by Admin September 11, 2024 Football

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The last time that the Tigers Departed for The Town they had a Spotlight shined on their terrible defense and limited offense and succumbed in overtime to a red-hot ACC team, losing some Good Will (Hunting!) for the young Drinkwitz regime.

Are these Boston-based movie puns doing anything for you? No? Yeah, same.

The point is, regardless of of the quality of the Boston College unit visiting Columbia this week, we know that Eli Drinkwitz holds grudges and wants an opportunity to avenge that loss.

I mean, the guy even said it himself! On TV and everything:

Of course, being a freshly-ranked team that was the most recent embarrassment for a preseason Top Ten Florida State should also generate plenty of attention and motivation for Mizzou to beat the Jesuits from Boston.

But this is college football. The more scraps of motivation and disrespect you can sprinkle on to your team, the better.

Here’s the preview I did for Boston College back in May. It figures that the two times Boston College has seemed competent over the past decade are the two exact seasons that Missouri has to play them. But they certainly aren’t infallible! Let’s look at the keys to the game:

When Missouri Has the Ball

The first thing you should notice is this: Mizzou is definitely going up against a P4 defensive line. From left to right the weights go 250-306-282-247 and the interior linemen are all over 6’4”. That’s a noticeable change from the shorter, lighter lines that Connor Tollison and friends have been going up against. In games against a paper tiger Florida State team and a bad FCS squad, this line has managed to rank in the Top 10 in yards per rush allowed (2.37, 9th) and yards per successful rush (5.00, 2nd). They also rank 9th in overall standard downs success rate allowed, 13th in passing downs success rate, and also 13th in passing success rate allowed. They’re not the most havoc-inducing defense out there (currently 53rd with a 15.7%) and don’t get a ton of sacks (18%, 97th in the country) but they do generate a 33% pressure rate, good for 15th in the country. Anything you think they’re good at it likely stems from the Florida State game, so how you feel about the Seminoles will likely color your view of their performance so far. Regardless, here’s how I see this matchup shaking out.

Create some explosive runs (aka the El Rancho corollary)

For all of the great things I mentioned above one thing I didn’t mention was Boston College’s run defense, currently ranking 48th in success rate. Now, their per carry numbers look good and they’ve been elite in short yardage situations and creating contact for the runner. But their big weakness is defending explosive rushing plays, something that Missouri hasn’t shown much of recently. We all believe both Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll can deliver on those chunk rushing plays and this will certainly be a defense that invites that sort of behavior. I think 7 explosive rushing plays should be a good indicator of Missouri taking advantage of a noticeable weakness here. And while some of that onus is on the line, it’s important that Noel and Carroll generate that big play for themselves in the open field.

Convert on 3rd Downs

While the Eagles have been good at playing sound defense and eliminating the easy stuff, their propensity to give up a big play has led them to have a tough time of getting offenses off the field. In fact, they are currently the 99th best defense at getting 3-and-outs…and they just got done playing Duquesne! For all its perceived lack of big plays, Mizzou’s offense has more than made up for it by being efficient and reliably converting down and distance markers. Let’s shoot for at least a 60% third-down conversion rate.

Finish your dang drives

Always, always, always. BC is currently 12th in the nation in scoring defense, give up an impressive 2.17 points per scoring opportunity. Missouri’s offense ranks 58th in point per scoring opportunity, averaging 4.56 points once they cross the opponent’s 40-yard line. This is a potential flaw that BC can expose to hang with the Tigers, either forcing long field goals or outright slamming the door on points. I’d like to see 8 trips inside BC’s 40 with at least 4.5 points per opportunity, which puts them at 36 points for the day…which should be enough.

When Boston College Has the Ball

Missouri’s Defense vs. Boston College’s Offense

Again, notice the difference in the size of the line. Mizzou has gone from two lines averaging 6’2” in height and around 275 in weight to a line that features almost everyone over 6’5” and 300 pounds. And this line is pretty good, too: all of their rushing stats rank in the Top 40 and the line doesn’t really get penalized at all (currently 1 penalty a game on average). If both teams play to their head coach’s offensive personality this game is going to be the style Eli Drinkwitz loves: a low possession, run-oriented, rock fight that’s over in 2 hours.

Eliminate the Big Pass

Seems weird to praise BC’s running game and then have the first key be about the pass, huh? Take a knee. Let’s sidebar for a second:

In 2019 Missouri made an ill-fated trip to Laramie, Wyoming and lost to a Cowboy team that did nothing but run the ball with it’s quarterback and chunky running backs and then took, like, 9 deep shots and connected on all of them.

And that’s similar to what BC does. Thomas Castellanos and Kye Robichaux grind out 3-5 yards per carry and as soon as the safeties get lulled into thinking its another run they’re connecting on a deep shot. Its why their passing game ranks 26th in the country and 5th in explosiveness. The key is obviously to stop the run but, to do that, you need to make sure that passing the ball isn’t a viable option or an emergency valve pulled to bail them out. If Mizzou’s young secondary can keep them to below 5 explosive pass plays I’ll feel good about their chances to make BC one dimensional.

Minimize the Scoring Damage

We’re all going to have to get comfortable with the uncomfortable in this game because BC is going to run way more plays in scoring position than Mizzou’s first two opponents did. And, unfortunately, the Eagles are one of the better teams in the country on capitalizing on their opportunities, currently ranking 13th at 5.5 points per opportunity. This will be the first real test for this defense and its “waves of dudes” strategy at defending opponents. If there truly is no drop off from the 1s to the 2s then they should be able to stay fresh against the deluge of rushing plays and hopefully keep BC to field goal attempts and maybe a stray touchdown. BC will get in scoring position but if Mizzou can keep it to, say, 6 trips across the 40 and 4.5 (or fewer) points per opportunity we should feel pretty good.

Conclusion

I was always curious how Mizzou would fare against their first P4 team of the year and, wouldn’t you know, what used to look like a squirrelly-but-beatable team is now still squirrelly but an actual, competent, ranked threat. Eli wants to beat these guys, I know this team wants to show that they aren’t just some schedule-based fluke, and even with an early kickoff, a sold-out Faurot should be ready to rock. It’s going to be a lot closer than the previous two weeks so strap in; it’s time to finally get stress tested.