Live racing returns to the Fair Grounds on Nov. 22 as the New Orleans racetrack hosts its much anticipated 2024-25 season. The meet will encompass 76 race days through March 23 and will offer racing fans and handicappers some of the best racing and wagering to be found anywhere during the winter season.

The Fair Grounds meet will be highlighted by 63 stakes worth a total of $8.875 million headlined by some of the most important races on the road to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. The Fair Grounds stakes program for next year’s 3-year-olds is sure to build a lot of interest in the meet. It will begin with the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 21 and will continue with the $250,000, Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 18, the $500,000, Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 15, and the $1 million, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 22.

Fair Grounds purses are up this season and high-quality racing on a day-in and day-out basis is guaranteed throughout the meet, with a loaded jock’s room filled with riders from around the country and plenty of good horses on the grounds representing many prominent trainers.

Fair Grounds Top Trainers

The leading trainer at last year’s 2023-24 Fair Grounds season was Shane Wilson, who sent the most horses to post of any barn at the meet and won 50 races from 350 starters for 15%. Wilson will be back again this season among a group that will also include other perennial leading trainers like Tom Amoss (28 wins, 22% last year), Brad Cox (27 wins, 28%), Bret Calhoun (24 wins, 16%), and Steve Asmussen (23 wins, 16%), as well as other top-10 finishers from a year ago including Joe Sharp (18 wins last year), Keith Bourgeois (17 wins), Dallas Stewart (15 wins), and Albert Stall Jr. (14 wins).

Kentucky-based trainers such as Ken McPeek, Brendan Walsh, Phil Bauer, and Cherie DeVaux also will have a strong presence at Fair Grounds this season. Some trainers you may see that Fair Grounds fans may not be accustomed to will include Brittany Russell, Ignacio Correas, and Linda Rice. Based on results from last year, some other trainers you may want to keep on the lookout for include Rob Atras, who won six races from 14 Fair Grounds starters for 43%, Robert Falcone Jr., who won with five of 16 starters for 31%, and Chad Brown, who is likely to have a small but effective stakes presence after winning with three of his five starters at last year’s meet.

Top Fair Grounds Jockeys

Last year’s 2023-24 Fair Grounds jockey title came down to a three-way battle won by Jose Guerrero with 52 wins (16%) narrowly over Jareth Loveberry who finished with 51 wins (14%), and Corey Lanerie who had 49 wins (14%). Ben Curtis (43 wins, 17%), and Jaime Torres (42 wins, 15%) rounded out the top five.

A new rider at the 2024-25 meet who is sure to make a big impact is Jose Ortiz, who rode the Kentucky circuit full time for the first time this year and will hope to carry over his winning ways to Fair Grounds. Ortiz tied for the jockey title at the 2024 Churchill Downs spring meet and was one of the top jockeys at Gulfstream Park last winter. He’ll be based at Fair Grounds over the upcoming winter for the first time.

Brian Hernandez Jr. will be back at Fair Grounds this season after racking-up 41 wins and a 17% win percentage at Fair Grounds last year. Since last being seen in New Orleans, Hernandez bolstered his prominence on a national level by winning the 2024 Mike Venezia Memorial Award and taking the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve aboard Mystik Dan and the Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff and Longines Kentucky Oaks aboard Horse of the Year candidate Thorpedo Anna.

Axel Concepcion, the 2023 Eclipse Award-winning apprentice jockey, also will be riding at Fair Grounds this season, as will Jeiron Barbosa who is moving his tack from Maryland. Those guys will seek live mounts in a crowded jock’s room that also will include Reylu Gutierrez, Florent Geroux, Edgar Morales, and Mitchell Murrill.

Fair Grounds Main Track Trends

One of the most notable things for handicappers to discover when it comes to the Fair Grounds is that the track is one of the fairest surfaces in the country when it comes to running styles. No matter if it’s a frontrunner, a pace-presser, a stalker, or a closer, your horse should indeed have a fair chance to win at the Fair Grounds.

Even at fair racetracks, however, it is always worth looking at the recent trends and statistics to try to determine what running styles and post positions give your horse its best chance to win.

At the most recent 2023-24 Fair Grounds meet, the most successful running style in sprints was early speed. Horses racing on or close to the pace within a length of the lead in sprints won 187 of the 355 sprints to account for wins in 53% of the races. Inside speed from posts 1-3 was the most effective. The combination of front-end speed from the inside posts resulted in wins in 103 of the 355 sprints and accounted for 29% of all winners. Stalkers, as defined by horses coming from between one to four lengths off the pace, did next-best with wins in 120 of the 355 sprints to account for 34% of winners. Closers from four-plus lengths behind won just 48 of the 355 sprints accounting for wins in only 14% of the races.

The segment of horses at the most risk from bad trips due to post positions in Fair Grounds sprints are the mid-pack stalkers, who can get caught in tough spots wide on the turn if they draw outside posts in big fields. These horses often have to be used too hard to gain position going into the turn, or else they can fall into the Fair Grounds trap of trying to make middle moves while wide on the turn instead of using the more prudent strategy of waiting until the long Fair Grounds straightaway before launching winning late bids.

In dirt routes run at the 2023-24 Fair Grounds meet, the track preference was for speed horses racing on or close to the pace. That group won 112 of the 276 dirt routes run at the meet to account for 41% of the winners. Stalkers won 86 routes (31% of the total), and closers won 78 routes (28% of the total).

In Fair Grounds route races run between one mile and 1 1/16 miles, post position can be a key issue due to the short run to the first turn. Horses that break from wide posts in these races can suffer ground-losing trips – especially at the distance of 1 mile and 70 yards – giving speed horses and pressers who break from the inside a tactical advantage.

Post positions played a role as a handicapping factor in Fair Grounds dirt routes last season. Horses from the inside posts 1-3 won 53% of the dirt routes, as opposed to horses from the middle posts 4-6 that won 39% of the races. The average field size in dirt routes was 7.11 horses per race, so outside posts were not a big factor; however, horses from outside posts did still manage to win 25 races for a respectable 9% of the total.

Fair Grounds Turf Tips

Fair Grounds is known for carding plenty of turf races but then having a lot of those races get taken off the turf. Adjusting for this is something Fair Grounds handicappers must deal with on a regular basis. There were only 47 turf routes run at Fair Grounds at the 2023-24 meet. Turf sprints are rare and there were only 11 of those races run all season in 2023-24.

In Fair Grounds turf routes, closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace tend to do the best – and in particular, closers breaking from the middle posts. Closers won 20 of the 47 turf routes last season to account for wins in 43% of the races, and 13 of those 20 winning closers broke from posts 4-6 with that small segment of the horses accounting for wins in 28% of the turf routes run at the meet. Stalkers accounted for wins in 34% of the turf routes last season. Frontrunners performed the worst as horses on or near the lead won only 11 of the 47 turf routes to account for wins in 23% of the races.

In the small amount of turf sprints run last season, stalkers from between one length and four lengths off the pace won 8 of the 11 races. In the decade of the 2020s there have been a total of exactly 200 turf sprints run at Fair Grounds. Those races were fair in terms of post positions and have favored stalkers to the tune of 85 winning stalkers in the 200 races. Closers do the worst in the turf sprints with just 44 wins in the 200 turf sprints the last four years.

Now is the time to get ready for the 2024-25 Fair Grounds race meet. Enjoy the season and best of luck.