Congratulations Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans, we have made it to the NFL playoffs! That means another championship is still on the table for the Bucs. It also means we get to enjoy some playoff prop bets.

There are several Buccaneers bets that I like in their game against the Washington Commanders this week. Some in favor of the Bucs and some with some self awareness of their weaknesses. As always, pick and choose what you like or come along for the ride in this week’s Big Bucs Gambling Guild.

Bucky Irving Over 87.5 Rushing Yards

As you probably know by now, the Bucs have one of the best running games in the NFL. This is powered by a great offensive line, which should translate well into the playoffs. This has also been in part to the emergence of rookie running back Bucky Irving. 

Irving finished the year with 1,122 rushing yards which is an average of 66 rushing yards per game. However, it’s important to remember that he wasn’t the starter for most of the first half of the season. He is now the featured back and his 5.4 yard per carry average tells you all you need to know as to why.

It’s also important to note that the Washington run defense has been bad this year. They rank 30th in total rushing yards allowed and 30th in rushing yards allowed per carry. This is a combination of Bucs ‘ strength vs Washington’s weakness, so I feel good about the over on this one.

Jayden Daniels Over 48.5 Rushing Yards

Daniels running ability has made Washington a trendy upset pick this weekend. The rookie quarterback has been absolutely dynamic for the Commanders this year and just makes magic happen with his legs. He can hurt you with designed runs or by scrambling when the play breaks down.

In total, Daniels rushed for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns this season. That means that this number is actually lower than his 52.4 rushing yard per game average. Why that is, I’m not exactly sure. 

The Bucs don’t have blazing speed at the linebacker position or the depth at safety to spy him with a nickel. This will put a lot of pressure on the Bucs big body edge rushers to keep contain. That formula worries me, so I’m taking the over on this.

Rachaad White Over 10.5 Receiving Yards

When these two teams met in week one, White killed the Commanders with 75 yards receiving. He is one of the best pass catching running backs in the NFL and the best pass protector on the Bucs. To me, this number feels very low.

Even with Irving taking over as the primary ball carrier, White still brings more value on passing downs. Some may have concerns with the amount of playing time that White in the regular season finale, but there is no reason to suggest that he won’t get a normal workload in the playoffs.

I suppose I can get the logic as to why this number is what it is, but I just don’t subscribe to it. I will take the over here and I like this as my favorite bet of the weekend.

Buccaneers -3

Yes yes yes, the guy who covers the Bucs is picking them to win; big surprise. However, I do find this to be a very favorable matchup as far as playoff teams go. I won’t go as to call this an easy win, but the Bucs have a clear advantage in this game and I think that will show through in the scoreboard. 

As I had said before, the Bucs have a clear advantage with their running game against a bad Washington defense. But it’s defensively where the Buccaneers have their biggest advantage. 

The Commanders have allowed the 7th most sacks in the NFL this year, even with an extremely mobile quarterback to avoid pressure. This plays into the Bucs hands as the team that had the 6th most sacks defensively. And while Daniles was only sacks twice in the week one matchup, keep in mind that the Buc’s leading sack artist Calijah Kancey missed that game with an unexpected injury.

However, it’s really the running game where Washington wants to do their damage. They ranked 3rd in total rushing yards last season and 4th in yards per carry. Luckily, the Bucs are equipped to slow that down, ranking 4th defensively in total rushing yards allowed and 9th in yards allowed per carry.

So an offense that can move the ball and a defense who can pressure the passer and take away their opponents biggest strength offensively AND that team is at home? Yeah, I’ll take the Bucs -3.

Baker Mayfield Over 238.5 Passing Yards

It feels like we have talked very little about Baker Mayfield in this game. Odd for a quarterback who ranked 3rd in passing yards and 2nd in passing touchdowns this year. Even in the first matchup alone he threw for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns against the Commanders.

Washington has a lot to worry about this weekend. Obviously they will want to take away Irving and perhaps they will bring an extra man into the box to slow him down. However, the will also want to double team Mike Evans, who has been one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this year. So is that an eight man box and two defensive backs on one wide receiver? 

Regardless of which of these two guys the Washington defense will focus on, that will leave a lot of opportunities for everyone else. Cade Otton, Sterling Shephard, and Jalen McMillan will both have a lot of opportunities to make their mark. Plus we know the likes of Irving, Evans and White will get theirs throughout the game. This will likely add up quickly and result in a big day for Mayfield.

5 Leg Parlay At +2087

For more from J.T. click here, then make sure to follow him on Twitter.

Follow, Like and Subscribe to Bucs Report

BucsReport.com

For more on this and everything Buccaneers check back here hourly at BucsReport.com