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A divisional rivalry kicks off NFL Week 5 when the Falcons host the Buccaneers in an NFC South showdown on Thursday night. Atlanta is favored by 1.5 points at home on bet365 Sportsbook.
Even though Tampa Bay has a better record through the first four games of the season, I think the Falcons are the play in this game.
These teams profile very similarly despite having different records. The advanced statistic of DVOA has Tampa Bay ranked 14th and Atlanta just below at 15th.
The Bucs’ 335.3 yards allowed per game is 18th in the NFL, and the Falcons are 19th at 336.5 YPG. Tampa Bay has done a bit better of a job keeping teams off the scoreboard by giving up 19.3 points per game, but Atlanta is in a similar spot at 21.3 points allowed per game.
The Buccaneers are scoring 24.3 points per game, which is a big step up from the Falcons’ 18.8 PPG, but the Bucs have only out-gained the Falcons by an average of 10 yards per game. That tells me these offenses are more comparable than the raw points per game statistic indicates, and Atlanta has more room for growth as Kirk Cousins acclimates to his new team.
Look for the Falcons to play well in front of their home crowd and take Atlanta to cover with bet365 bonus code POSTNEWS.
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