Race #8 Malibu Stakes (Grade 1) $300,000 7-Furlongs Dirt – 5:36pm EST

The only horse to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown this year, the Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan returns to the races on the day after Christmas as the headliner in a tough field of eight sophomore males in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, the son of Goldencents will be in search of his third graded stakes win, having also romped in the Grade 3 Southwest early in the season. First in the Derby and second in the Preakness, he faded out of contention when last seen in the Belmont Stakes. Working well for his return, a good effort is expected from Mystik Dan, but this 7-furlong test will not be easy.

Chief among his rivals on Saturday will be the consistent sprinter Bentornato. The four-time stakes winner comes into the Malibu off his best effort yet when he finished a game second in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) last month at Del Mar. With plenty of early speed, he will look to be involved all the way around from his rail draw.

None of the other six horses in the race can be ignored in this one. Perhaps the most interesting of the bunch is Stronghold. A Grade 1 winner over this track in the Santa Anita Derby, he should get a nice pace set up to rally into. Freshened since a good and wide second in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, he should offer nice value here. In a wide open race, he is the top pick.

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Race #9 Mathis Mile Stakes (Grade 2) $200,000 1-Mile Turf – 6:08pm EST

A solid second last time in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby, King of Gosford looks like the one they will all have to beat when he breaks from the rail in Saturday’s Grade 2 Mathis Mile going a mile on the Santa Anita turf.

Very consistent since his arrival from Europe, the English-bred 3-year-old has won four of eight in the U.S. In the race before his fine effort in Grade 1 company last out, he was a stylish victor in the one-mile Let It Ride Stakes at Del Mar. With not too much early speed in this one, he should sit a nice stalking trip under top rider Flavien Prat. He is strictly the one to beat.

Second choice on the morning line in this one-mile affair is the multiple stakes winner Stay Hot. With a strong career record going this distance, the confirmed stretch runner must be respected. Last time out, he finished with a rush to finish only a neck behind King of Gosford in the Hollywood Derby. The lack of pace here could make it a little tough, however, for him to get up in this one.

Offering a little value at 8/1 on the morning line is Atitlan. A lightly raced son of The Factor, he was a nice winner of the Grade 2 Twilight Derby two starts back. Last time, he fell a little too far out early and faced some traffic, but was still beaten only three lengths in the Hollywood Derby. If he’s closer early here, he could be the biggest threat to the favorite. Still, I cannot look past King of Gosford. He is the top pick in the Mathis Mile.

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Race #10 La Brea Stakes (Grade 1) $300,000 7-Furlongs Dirt – 6:40pm EST

In one of the more wide-open looking Grade 1 races of the year, Hope Road has been chosen as the morning line favorite against ten other talented 3-year-old fillies in Thursday’s Grade 1 La Brea at Santa Anita. 

One of four for trainer Bob Baffert, Hope Road has won all four of her starts so far in 2024. A daughter of Quality Road, she won the Grade 3 Torrey Pines and the Grade 3 Bayakoa, both at Del Mar, in her last two starts.  One of many in this field with early speed, the pace dynamics of the race could play against the morning line favorite.

The list of serious contenders in this race is a long one and includes talented graded stakes winners One Magic Philly, Kinza, and Tamara. All of them have speed, as do several others in the field. In other words, the pace of this edition of the La Brea should be hot. Given the demanding nature of the 7-furlong distance and the abundance of speed, I will be looking for an off the pace runner.

Sugar Fish at 10/1 on the morning line fits the bill. A winner of her last four tries at Santa Anita, she was no match for the sensational Thorpedo Anna last time in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) at Del Mar, but now finds a perfect spot to come from behind. She also had a nice win going this distance at Santa Anita earlier this year. She is the top pick in this one.

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Race #11 American Oaks (Grade 1) $300,000 1 1/4-Miles Turf – 7:12pm EST

An authoritative Grade 1 winner in her latest outing, She Feels Pretty looks for another big score when she tops a field of 13 sophomore fillies going 1 1/4-miles on the turf in the Grade 1 American Oaks on opening day at Santa Anita.

It’s hard to look past She Feels Pretty here after her 6-length romp in October’s Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland. Although she has never before traveled the distance, her sparkling record gives plenty of reason to believe that the 10-furlong trip on Thursday will not be a problem for the classy filly. A winner of 4-of-7, including a pair of Grade 1’s, the daughter of Karakontie has never failed to fire while keeping the best of competition.

If you are looking for an upset in the American Oaks, Kathynmarissa is the most likely candidate. The American Pharoah filly has also been a model of consistency since switching to the grass six starts back. She has less early speed than the favorite, but has been the trip and should be finishing well. She was a good winner of the Dueling Ground Oaks at Kentucky Downs in her latest.

Of the rest, Watchtower and Medoro exit an exciting 1-2 finish in the Grade 3 Autumn Miss last time. Both California fillies will look to prove that they can be as effective running longer on Thursday after their performance at a flat mile. Overall, it’s all about She Feels Pretty for me in this American Oaks. She is the top pick.

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