Photo: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
The Philadelphia Eagles play their first game inside Lincoln Financial Field on Monday night after what felt like an eternity between the Week 1 and Week 2 games.
Unfortunately, the Birds won’t be at full strength for the clash with the Atlanta Falcons. A.J. Brown was ruled out with a hamstring injury this weekend, though the Eagles are still a 5.5-point favorite across the board.
The only real change in lines following the Brown news was the increase in DeVonta Smith’s player props. Smith is up to over/under 71.5 receiving yards, which is about 5-10 yards more than he’s typically listed at.
The over/under settled at 45.5 points, a number that affected by Brown’s absence and Atlanta’s inability to score against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1.
The Eagles played in a complete opposite style game than the Falcons in Week 1, and I would expect we see a higher-powered offensive game over the grind the Falcons were locked into. The Steelers typically play lower-scoring games and have to win that way because of their limitations at quarterback.
You’re going to hear a lot, and I mean a lot, throughout the day about Kirk Cousins’ primetime record. He’s 3-10 straight up on Monday nights and is 12-19 in games labeled as “late” by Pro Football Reference.
Cousins’ Achilles recovery will probably match the same level of air time as his primetime record and cheesesteak shops going in and out of commercial. He did not look to be 100 percent against the Steelers, but how much of that was Achilles-related or just because of the Steelers defense will be answered in the coming weeks.
If the injury is still an issue, Cousins can combat that with quick throws to Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts. Drake London is Atlanta’s top receiver and there’s a steep drop off in talent to Darnell Mooney and Ray-Ray McCloud, who are the two top candidates for the “How the Fuck Did This Guy Beat Us Award?” for Week 2.
I’d also bake in the homecoming angle for Pitts as well. The overs on his receptions at 3.5 and receiving yards at 41.5 are attainable. The Eagles ranked in the bottom 10 against tight ends last season and I don’t think that flaw has been completely fixed with the linebackers on the roster.
The same can be said about the Falcons and defending Dallas Goedert, who for me is the Eagles player set to benefit the most from Brown’s absence.
Jalen Hurts realistically has four pass-catching options in Smith, Goedert, Saquon Barkley, and Jahan Dotson.
Goedert had four catches on five targets for 31 yards in Week 1. There’s already a strong foundation between Hurts and his top tight end, so instead of forcing the ball to Dotson when the chemistry isn’t all there yet, I think Hurts goes to his safety valve.
Goedert’s props sit at over/under 4.5 receptions and over/under 43.5 receiving yards. I’d also look into him at +220 to score a touchdown. The offers vary at NJ sports betting apps and with PA sports betting, but DraftKings is offering a No Sweat Touchdown Bet for each day of Week 2 games. Goedert has the best value compared to Hurts at -105 or Barkley at -180.
Barkley will be a popular name on the prop market, but I would advise some caution with his rushing yard total at 76.5. Najee Harris needed 20 carries to get 70 yards against the Falcons last week. Barkley will have the workload to get close to his over, but it might not be as easy as Week 1.
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