When it comes to assessing the pace of the Grade 1 Beholder Mile on Saturday at Santa Anita, it is easy to note that there is plenty of it. But a quick scan of the Pace Ratings in the free Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances indicates that one entrant in particular has a decided edge.

That is Cavalieri, a $900,000 Nyquist filly who has won all three of her career starts with Juan Hernandez up for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. She pressed the pace last out before drawing off in her stakes debut, a 1 1/16-mile win in the La Cañada Stakes (G3). Now she gets to cut back to a two-turn mile, which she has conquered twice in her career, including once at Santa Anita in a first-level allowance race.

Although only her maiden win was gate-to-wire, there is reason to suspect that against this group she can go right to the front and never look back. The question will be whether there is value to be had. If bettors take the other Baffert, Richi, in equal or near-equal strength, then Cavalieri is the play. 

From a potential price-play perspective, Ultimate Authority could be the one running best late at a big price. That might not be good enough to win, but she’d be my play to slot underneath Cavalieri.

Richi won a 1 1/4-mile race that her native Chili considers a Grade 1 race, but she has yet to try two turns in the Northern Hemisphere. I definitely see her as a step below her stablemate, both in pace and overall talent. But if Cavalieri ends up odds on, then Richi is the likely play.

Hoosier Philly and Tarifa both are shipping west for trainers Tom Amoss and Brad Cox, respectively. Neither would be a shock by any means, but I expect both to be underlaid given their name recognition and connections.