Rafael Nadal’s Nordea Open campaign heats up in a big way in the form of a second-round showdown against Cameron Norrie on Thursday afternoon.

In his first appearance at this tournament since winning the title in 2005, Nadal opened with a 6-3, 6-4 defeat of world No. 461 Leo Borg on Tuesday. That improved the 38-year-old’s record in what has been an abbreviated season to 8-5, highlighted by a fourth-round performance in Madrid.

Norrie figures to be a much tougher opponent. The British left-hander has slumped to 42nd in the rankings, but he is coming off a respectable third-round showing at Wimbledon–where he upset Jack Draper before falling to Alexander Zverev. Norrie is 17-14 for the year following a 7-6(4), 6-4 victory over Jozef Kovalik in the Bastad first round.

Thursday marks the sixth meeting between Nadal and Norrie, with the head-to-head series standing at 4-1 in favor of the Spaniard. He has won both of their clay-court encounters; 6-1, 6-4 at the 2021 Barcelona event and 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 a few weeks later at the French Open. They most recently faced each other on the hard courts of the United Cup in 2023, when Norrie prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Although Norrie has racked up plenty of decent clay-court results throughout his career, his game is not tailor made for the red stuff; his style actually works better on grass (the former world No. 8 was a Wimbledon semifinalist in 2022). Norrie also doesn’t boast a ton of firepower, so this will be a match this on Nadal’s racket. Even though the 22-time major champion is well off his peak level, he is playing well enough to win it.

Pick: Nadal in 2