If you asked most ‘Bama fans what they thought of this contest when it was scheduled, you probably would have been greeted with conventional wisdom: Purdue is a grinding Big 10 team, they’re a slow team, they’re dominant in the paint, they play great defense etc. Meanwhile, Alabama is the lean, long athletic team. The Tide want to break out. ‘Bama’s three-point shooting is to be feared. They are often cavalier with the ball, but the risk is worth the payoff.

But, as so frequently happens with CW, that’s simply not the case.

This season, Alabama’s most impactful players have come inside the paint. The three-point shooting has left much to be desired. The Tide is dominating the glass. It has greatly cut down its turnovers. And though ‘Bama plays at a breakneck pace, it is not generating very many points on the break.

In fact, it is Purdue that is lethal behind the arc. It is Purdue who has struggled on the glass. And it is Purdue whose defense and ball control have left a lot to be desired, particularly in the post.

Let’s go over this one. Because when these two played a year ago, you would have never predicted that the entire script would be flipped in just one season.

Tale of the Tape: No. 13 Purdue (3-0) vs No. 2 Alabama (3-0)

Spread (Totals): Purdue -3.5

Purdue KenPom: 11 (6 offense, 51 defense, 268 tempo)
Purdue Evan Miya: 7 (6 offense, 45 defense, 245 tempo)
Purdue Bart Torvik: 12 (12 offense, 30 defense, 248 tempo)
Opponent NET: Q1

Alabama KenPom: 10 (7 offense, 20 defense, 6 tempo)
Alabama Evan Miya: 13 (5 offense, 9 defense, 2 tempo)
Alabama Bart Torvik: 8 (3 offense, 14 defense, 12 tempo)
NET Ranking: N/A

Ignore the rankings and preseason hype; ignore the ballyhooed transfer and recruiting class — these two teams are a tossup. ‘Bama may have the hype, but at least offensively, the Boilermakers have been every bit as consistent as the Tide, and they’ve been far better (if not as deep) from beyond the arc (over 40% on the season). As much as we don’t want to break bad news, at least on paper, this one figures to be a coin toss, particularly on the road.

Last season, led by Foul Ming, the Boilermakers boasted one of the most efficient offenses in the nation (4th overall), and Edey’s frequent 15-20 rebound nights vaulted the Boilermakers all the way to 12th defensively. It didn’t come against slop either — Purdue’s SOS was second behind the Tide, and their average opponent was in the Top 15 offensively and defensively (again, similar to ‘Bama). He got the headlines for sure, but his presence in the post opened up a lot of space on the perimeter for Purdue’s excellent guards. The questions this year for Purdue were two-fold: 1. Could the perimeter game keep pace without a Wooden winner at center to free up shooters, and 2. Who is going to replace Edey, and what does that mean for the defense.

Offensively, at least, Purdue hasn’t skipped a beat. But the interior warts are showing, and a team that was never great guarding the line, has had some moments that leave much to be desired.

There was an unbelievable five-way competition for the starting PF/C spot this year, a battle eventually won out by 7’4” freshman Daniel Jacobsen. But, Purdue has more big man depth than anyone in the nation: Will Berg, Caleb Furst, Raleigh Burgess, and Trey Kaufman-Renn all see the floor at the 4/5 spots, and they all have exceptional size and Big 10 physicality. Alabama is going to be taller than almost every opponent they face this season — the Boilermakers are that exception, being on average, the same height as the Tide. There is significant positional disparity though. The wings are undersized, and the guards are just about average. But at the PF/C spots, the Boilermakers are the second-biggest team in the country. But that’s practically a free square on your Matt Painter bingo card. The Boilers min-maxed and decided to spec all their height points in the post.

Trey Kaufman-Renn is the best of that bunch, and is the heir apparent to Jacobsen (out indefinitely, tibia fracture), averaging 14/6 a game, with three APG, and shooting a healthy 64% from the floor. He can flex out at the 4 when Purdue goes even bigger, with Will Berg getting the looks at center. While the 7’2” Berg has not been much of a scoring threat, he’s a great rim protector and the best rebounder (11.7 per 60 minutes). Keep an eye out for Caleb Furst too. He’s averaging 7/3 a night, and is the best shot-blocker. He’s a mobile, active defender and can play every position in the frontcourt, though he’s better suited as a pure power forward. TKR slots into the five-spot in the post when Purdue goes small, though he is hardly undersized at 6’10”. The sophomore started every game last season at PF, and is one of Purdue’s true veterans on a team that has lost a lot of experience.

Despite the Boilermakers being big, they’ve not really been able to impose their will down low after losing Danielsen. In their 8-point squeaker against Yale on Monday, the Elis 6’10” Samson Aletan had a field day against Purdue, scoring more against them in 10 minutes than in his previous two games combined. But Danielsen’s presence may not have mattered much in any event. Even with the promising freshman in the lineup, a consistent complaint by Painter has been how poor (relatively speaking) his guys have been on the glass: Both Northern Kentucky and Yale matched them on the boards, and that simply should not happen at home to a team with as much talent and size as Purdue.

It has also meant that the Boilers are very slow to get back up the court on defense, and concerted running attacks (like A&M CC) were able to exploit that. But, despite being average-to-bad on the glass, Purdue makes an absolute living off mistakes and second-chance points: over 30% of their scoring has come off offensive rebounds and opponent turnovers.

And this is where Purdue’s greatest strength lies: the backcourt. While it’s a retooled team, the true impact starters that are back are at the guard spots. The first to immediately jump out at you is Hon. Mention AA Braden Smith. The Cousy award finalist was All-Big 10, and can do a bit of everything, though he is most dangerous as a shooter and when distributing the many ball screens that Purdue runs. He has been turnover-prone, like Mark, but like Sears, he logs 35+ a night and is asked to do so much for this offense. Do not be surprised if Philon draws the start opposite him. He’s a tough assignment for anyone, and is legitimately in the discussion as one the best point guards in Big 10 history (outside of Magic, of course). He does it all — 3 steals PG, 6 RPG, 9.3 APG and knocks in 15 a night. You can’t stop him from doing everything, but you can minimize the damage by playing good rotational defense.

At the two-spot is veteran SG Fletcher Loyer, who leads the Boilermakers at 17.3 PPG. Both he and Smith shoot over 40% from the perimeter. And that’s the heart of this Purdue team: its perimeter play.

There are other shooters that also come off the bench. Myles Colvin is poised to break out, and with his length could be an effective defender. But so far throughout his career, he’s been a defensive liability. Gicarri Harris and CJ Cox are also capable perimeter players as well, and Harris is probably the best defender on the entire roster. It’s not as deep a backcourt as McNeese, but it is probably the best guard tandem the Tide will face all season long.

Matt Painter doesn’t get nearly enough credit for his deep playbook either. The Boilermakers run a two-high post offense that, alongside UConn, may be one of the most complex in the game — there are over a hundred screens alone in Painter’s system. And it absolutely devours miscommunication, slow rotations, and lazy defense on entry looks — especially with its quick cuts, pick-and-pop threes, and more pick and rolls than you’ll see outside of Tennessee. (And with their very slow pace of play, looking for the perfect shot, they are the closest to the Vawls in deliberative offense). There will certainly be more athletic teams the Tide face this year, and far more talented ones, but there probably won’t be one as intimately dialed into the offense quite like this one. Alongside Creighton, Auburn, Houston and Tennessee, the Boilermakers will place the most stress on ‘Bama to play smart for a full forty minutes.

The downside to all that complexity in a guard-led offense, one with somewhat limited athleticism, is that the Boilermakers not only have a rebounding problem, they also are turning it over a ton. Like Zakai Zeigler at UT, teams that put as many touches on the PG’s shoulders as the Boilermakers do, tend to also produce turnovers. That has been the knock on Braden throughout his career, though perhaps a bit unfairly. It is also leaving the Boilermakers ripe for surrendering fast break points, as its not a great transition defense, and certainly not a great perimeter-defending one.

It’s the game of the year already, huh?

In many respects, this feels like it could be one of the Tide’s toughest tests of the season. Smart, veteran backcourt of excellent shooters, a system that both forces and exploits opponent mistakes, and a frontcourt that goes four-deep at 6’10”-plus. And it’s on the road, where Purdue has posted an unreal 57-4 record in the last four seasons.

Bad pun incoming: but that’s a tall task, and there are a lot of tough matchups facing ‘Bama on Friday.

Cliff faced the Boilermakers twice last season, so he can do some scouting for the Tide’s staff. And while he had a decent game at home against the Boilermakers, he can also attest to how hard it is to pick up a win in West Lafayette, as he played miserable in that road meeting: 3 points, 4 rebounds. And that’s not an outlier. Getting a win at Purdue in damn near impossible lately.

A loss isn’t the end of the world. (Not to be a pessimist, I’m sort of half-expecting this team that is learning how to play together to do precisely that in a true road team against a likely Top 10 squad). Alabama can win this game, for sure. But it’s going to require their best play of the season, their smartest play of the season, capitalizing on Purdue’s mistakes, forcing tempo, outhustling on the glass, and knocking down looks that Purdue’s softer perimeter defense will afford them. Any sort of consistent defensive breakdowns, any sort of cold shooting night, any sort of aberrant turnovers, losing those contested battles down low, and ‘Bama is cooked. The margin between these teams is that close.

This could be a very good night for lesser-heralded ‘Bama spark plugs to shine, players that hit the deck and get after it: Little Mo, Stache, Jarin, and Derrion. But they can only be part of the equation. Alabama also has to take advantage of the space that Purdue is going to give them from beyond the arc. Purdue, shooting over 40% from three, will almost certainly force ‘Bama to do that just to keep up.

ESPN’s sims give Purdue a 52.6% chance of winning, with a final margin of four points, which would just narrowly cover this, though some modeling has it as high as Purdue by 11 (which I frankly doubt). But throughout his tenure, patient and physical team basketball has tended to disrupt even some of Nate Oats’ best teams.

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.