Alabama’s swing tour through the country’s best backcourts continues in the ACC/SEC Challenge, where the No. 10 Crimson Tide travels to Chapel Hill’s venerable Dean Dome to face an improbable emerging rival: The North Carolina Tarheels.

Sitting at 4-3, this is not how the ‘Heels at all envisioned their season unfolding, one which began with a lofty No. 7 preseason ranking and perhaps unrealistic expectations of a Final Four. No, like Alabama, the Heels believed the pieces were there to put it all together for a title run…they just needed a game-changing big man. To that end, Alabama and UNC got into a reputed bidding war for the services of ‘Bama’s starting C Cliff Omoruyi. The ‘Heels struck out, and instead have had to lean on some role players and emergent freshmen down low. Alabama for their part are still waiting on Cliff to come out of his shell and start impacting games in the paint.

Both teams are at an inflection point as well, with preseason play winding down and brutal conference slates awaiting them in three weeks. And both have already had difficult OOC starts: UA and UNC are 9th and 10th respectively in SOS. In fact, there are a lot of similarities in these two, at least in outcome if not in style or execution.

Prepare for an absolute war in primetime.

Tale of the Tape (NET): No. 25 UNC (4-3) vs No. 13 Alabama (6-2)

Spread (Totals): UNC -2.5 (O/U 174.5)

Opponent KenPom: 16 (5 offense, 64 defense, 7 tempo)
Opponent Evan Miya: 18 (5 offense, 62 defense, 18 tempo)
Opponent Bart Torvik: 19 (6 offense, 59 defense, 8 tempo)
Opponent NET: 25 (1-3 Q1)
Opponent Best Win: No. 26 Dayton
Opponent Worst Loss: No. 36 Michigan State

Alabama KenPom: 10 (3 offense, 46 defense, 5 tempo)
Evan Miya: 8th (3 Off, 29 Defense, 2nd Tempo)
Bart Torvik: 8 (3 Off, 34 Defense, 7th Tempo)
NET Ranking: 13 (2-2 Q1)
Best Win: No. 10 Illinois
Worst Loss: No. 19 Purdue

It’s difficult to express how brutal of an early schedule these two teams have faced. In addition to the 9th and 10th overall SOS, their opponents have boasted the 8th best offense / 13th best defensive profile (for the Tide), and 9th best offense / 15th best defensive profile for the Tarheels. The two have combined for five losses, but they have come against: No. 2 Auburn, No. 14 Purdue, No. 15 Oregon, and No. 7 Kansas — and it’s not like Izzo and Sparty at 36th are chum.

But where the difference lies is in the quality of wins. UNC has a nice W over a very good Dayton team on a neutral floor, but its other three are against T3/T4 slop. Alabama meanwhile has a win over two T1s (both away from home), and has added a pair of T2 wins to go along with it, with Ark. State just on the cusp of T2 as well.

How they got here is remarkably similar as well: high flying, tempo-offenses with the guards doing the heavy lifting, and disappointing play in the post and defensively. For the Tarheels, the latter has to hurt even more, since this was a team coming off a season where the offense and defense were in the KenPom top 20. Their regression without Bacot / Ingram has been stark. Alabama has to be disappointed for entirely different reasons: The Tide won this head-to-head bidding war, and Cliff has been far from the singular piece we envisioned him to be. Both teams, therefore, are having to win a ton of high-scoring games, where defense often seems an afterthought. And if the guard don’t have it that night, then the team folds.

So the Tarheels are every bit as battle-hardened as the Tide, but this is not the same group that Alabama faced just eight months. In fact, it sports an different look entirely. The frontcourt that terrorized Alabama the previous few seasons moved, and I daresay Tide fans will be glad to see the last of Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram. Also gone is ‘Bama tormentor Cormac Ryan (he of Notre Dame and UNC daggers aplenty). But the heart of this group still beats, and it begins with some familiar faces: the dangerous veteran guard tandem of Elliot Cadeau and RJ Davis. So, UNC is leaning into what it does best: ball screens, and a seemingly surfeit of pick-and-rolls, relying on Davis to feast.

Here are the ‘Heels.

The post game, such as it is, relies on two guys. Starting with Jae’lyn Withers, who last year was a mere bench player. This season, however, he’s being asked to drop into the post a bit more at just 6’8”. Despite his lack of towering height, he’s an effort player who went blow-for-blow with KU’s star center, Dickinson, and played him to a near-draw. For that matter, you can insert PF/C Jalen Washington here too. The pair start in the frontcourt and have almost identical stats: about 8 PPG, about 5-6 RPG.

But you see here where the loss of Bacot is felt most drastically. Neither are a threat to step out to the perimeter. Neither are effective rim protectors. Neither are efficient offensive rebounders. And neither see the floor well to find open shooters. They are recipients of screen-and-roll and there to defensively rebounds. In essence, UNC requires two starters to fill the role of one guy, and they’re still coming up short to his production and versatility. Ven-Allen Rubin comes off the bench to spell them. And while he’s a very good scorer in the post for his size, he’s a foul magnet and not the best defender.

The heart of this team though are the guards, and the Tarheels have a formidable duo indeed, beginning with All-everything RJ Davis. Davis is the leading scorer (18.4), chips in another 4 rebounds and 4 assists per night, and is a true three-level threat. He can take you off the dribble, distribute, get to the rim, and stroke it from outside. Did we mention the part about being one of the nation’s best free throw shooters (88%). If he were a better perimeter player, he’d be nigh’perfect across the board. Davis is a load, and has always been a load. He’s also playing at a high level, so any deficits in the ‘Heels record can’t be pinned here.

Likewise, combo guard Elliot Cadeau returns, and his offensive game has blossomed this season. He is UNC’s second-leading scorer (14.4) and leads the team in assists, at almost half a dozen per game. The three-guard lineup was always going to have to pull someone off the bench after Cormac’s departure, and that man is Seth Trimble. Like Washington and Withers, he has become a full-time starter. And, like Cadeau, more P/T has seen Trimble’s offensive game taken to a next level. He’s the third-leading scorer, and not too far behind Cadeau, at just over a dozen a night.

There is a different wrinkle this season, in that there are no longer three guards to contain. Seeing that this is the strength of the team, the ‘Heels also employ two more who see a lot of time. The first “starter” Ian Jackson. Jackson nets close to double digits, and is by far one of the two best shooting perimeter players for UNC (or at least the one that sees consistent floor time). He’s 47% from beyond the arc, and can get hot in a hurry. He has a doppelgänger off the bench, however, and the fifth guard is seeing more minutes, is every bit as good from deep, and could wind up being the better overall player, 6’6” stud freshman guard Drake Powell. The local kid adds almost 7 more a night, but I think his role is going to expand as he gets more experience.

Want a key to whether Alabama will win this game? The Tide’s backcourt has to limit these five players. They are responsible for about 64 points per night of UNC’s 89.7 PPG. The ‘Heels are one of the most dangerous offenses for a reason: these guys, and at any moment they can go off.

But, what the ‘Heels bring in offense, they sorely lack in defense. I would say they’ve been Alabama-bad, but that’s not quite true. They’ve been worse than Alabama. Significantly so, beginning with scoring. Three of their four Q1 opponents went well into the mid-90s, and the fourth, Auburn, didn’t need to: They just lined up Johnni Broome, kicked their ass in the post, still won by 13…and still scored 85. In fact, owing to their defensive liabilities, those great guards have to be great: UNC’s magic number seems to be 87 — They’re 3-1 above that mark, 1-2 below it.

What’s the reason? In a word, rebounding. The Tarheels are getting murdered on the glass. We grumbled yesterday about Alabama being a merely average defensive rebounding team. UNC is among the worst in the country (318th). We complain about allowing second-chance points, and it has cost Alabama games. But it’s positively murdering the ‘Heels. Alabama, meanwhile, is one of the country’s better offensive rebounding teams. That has to make Hubert Davis throw up his lunch.

Like Alabama, because the Tarheels move so quickly, and run their offense through their guards, they are very careless with the ball. Even more turnover prone than the Tide, in fact. And, like the Tide, the backcourt isn’t a great defending one either. But, as we’ve seen elsewhere, Alabama again is just a bit better in this respect.

Bottom Line

So, how does Alabama find a path to victory? Some of what BB4 wrote last March remains true:

Key #2: Defending Ball Screens

Speaking of PnRs and ball screens, North Carolina excels at them. When the Tar Heels aren’t beating their opponents down the court – UNC itself is 41st in Tempo – they run a ton of ball screen action in the halfcourt. And why wouldn’t they? They have an elite, three-level point guard playing with a dominant roll big man with four years of built-up chemistry.

The dominant big is gone, and the Heels are moving at tempo now, but the ball screens remain. Teams have feasted on the Tide in this respect all season. Let’s hope four days off and a stern lesson in defense was able to impart some urgency here.

Quick transition threes and forcing the Tar Heels to switch on PnRs could be the ticket for the Tide tonight, as the former is not something UNC is used to seeing and the latter could take advantage of Alabama’s more positionless style of play. I can guarantee you that Hubert Davis will likely have Armando Bacot playing drop coverage on PnRs to start – it’s right out of Tennessee/Auburn/Florida’s playbook against the Tide. So, Nate Oats will need a counter to this. Aaron Estrada has displayed some strong midrange and post skills – maybe allowing him to initiate the PnR will work.

Another option – and the more likely one, in my opinion – is using two guards on ball screens. Take Bacot out of it entirely and force the Heels to make some tougher decisions at the point of action. Incorporate some ghost screens and ‘catch and go’s and give Alabama’s guards room to knock down shots or attack the paint.

Alabama is going to shoot its shots. They’ll have the space to do so, and they’ll have plenty of chances on the breakouts. But the latter part seems the most instructive here. The Tarheels foul a lot, and they’re not a good defensive team. I think the catch-and-go and taking their opponent off the dribble is going to be key for the guards. And the pick-and-roll will especially be a potent weapon in this contest. All three of UNC’s winning opponents PnR’d the Tarheels into a grave. You attack Withers and Washington, you force Davis to play on his heels, you try to get the young shooters into foul trouble and keep them on the bench.

Finally, I think Alabama is going to just have to play loose and play with urgency. The onus won’t be on them to be a lockdown team in this game. It would be almost impossible to do so against this backcourt in any event. So, they need to do what they did against Illinois: embrace the challenge of another hot-shooting tempo team and just play their game. It’s what we also saw against the Memphis Tigers — you’re going to have to get into the 90s to win this one. So, just go out and shoot. Have fun, because this game is going to be treat…even if the lack of defense takes years off of Nate Oats’ life.

How To Watch

Primetime matchup: 6:15 central on ESPN.

Prediction

Honestly, who knows what to think about this game? If ever there were a contest where Alabama’s frontcourt could flex, it would be this one. In fact, with Trelly now out indefinitely, they very well may need to do so. But there’s going to be a lot of open floor in this game, and it’s going to move at a breakneck pace, so perhaps the backcourt will remember how much fun those black top pickup games were. I think, at times, you’re going to see exactly that: a lot of shots, a lot of matching one with each trip down the floor, a lot of turnovers, a lot of fouls, and a lot of free throws.

Teams rarely win the battle of whistles in Dean Smith Center (shocker, I know), so the Tide can’t just rely on getting to the stripe 30 times. They’re going to have to get their points the hard way. And the best way to do that is in the paint. Let’s hope Cliff and Stache and Little Mo and Sherrell are up for the challenge.

I have no score prediction; these two are so evenly matched. But I do know that whatever the over is, take it. These two are bringing fireworks

Hope for the best.
Roll Tide.