The first Slam of this season winds down as we enter the business end of the second week of the 2025 Australian Open. No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka is into her tenth Slam semifinal (third in Australia), as she is four sets away from defending her title. She squares off against Paula Badosa, who has played scintillating tennis to advance to her first Slam semi.

As always, we at LWOT provide our roundtable preview and prediction for this bout. A separate article predicts Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys. Predicting this match are Damian Kust, Ilemona Onekutu, Ateet Shrivastava, and Yesh Ginsburg. But who will advance to the final?

Australian Open Women’s Semifinal Predictions

Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa

Damian
For the past seven to eight months, Badosa has been playing better than when she was No. 2 in the world back in the era of complete Swiatek domination. Her consistency at the Slams of late has also earned her this run and she was nowhere near as nervous as in her previous Grand Slam quarterfinals when she defeated Gauff. But she’ll need to keep delivering as Sabalenka has now won 19 matches in a row at this event and also 19 matches in a row in hard-court Slams. She hasn’t been perfect in this event so far, but she’s responding to adversity and not going away. This matchup between two friends has always suited the two-time defending champion, and it would take a special performance from Badosa to stop her.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2

Ilemona
Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa face off in a high-stakes Australian Open semifinal. Sabalenka’s powerful form makes her the favorite, but Badosa’s resilience and athleticism could test the defending champion in a battle of aggressive baseline play. Sabalenka is the more experienced at this level and that should help her across the finish line in a closely contested two sets.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2

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Ateet
The first Grand Slam meeting between these two close friends promises a lot of exciting tennis. Sabalenka played her worst match in the quarterfinal, while Badosa played her best match in a long time to beat Coco Gauff. The Spaniard is in great form and will look to stop the five-match losing streak against Sabalenka. Badosa leads the head-to-head on hard courts, which should give her confidence. Sabalenka’s serve hasn’t been as effective in this tournament as usual, but the added variety in her game has helped her. This should be a tight match if Badosa plays like she has so far, but I am giving a slight edge to the World No. 1.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 3

Yesh
Paula Badosa has had an incredible tournament so far. She has found her elite form and seems to finally be fully healthy. Sabalenka, meanwhile, has appeared vulnerable at times. She needs to tighten things up for three full sets because if she gives Badosa an inch, the Spaniard will take a mile.
Prediction: Badosa in 3

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images