We are in for a treat on Tuesday at the Australian Open, as an absolute classic of a men’s quarterfinal match is in store. Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz met twice last year. Alcaraz got the better of the Serbian in the Wimbledon final, but Djokovic turned around a few weeks later to win the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics. Who will win this battle? And, of course, we will also see another quarterfinal, between Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul on the schedule as well. Our writers share their thoughts on both matches. Predicting these matches are Jordan Reynolds, Damian Kust, Tope Oke, Ateet Shrivastava, and Jim Smith. Who do you think will win?

Australian Open Quarterfinal Predictions

Alexander Zverev vs Tommy Paul

Jordan:
Paul is one of the most underappreciated players in tennis. His formidable defense and movement on hard courts means Zverev will almost certainly need a high-quality performance to win. The German’s better serve giving him extra free points makes me favor him slightly more, but Paul’s chances should not be ruled out.
Prediction: Zverev in 4

Damian:
Zverev dropped a set to Humbert, but over the course of the entire first week he was still in great shape and never looked like he was in danger of going out. This could be the Slam where he finally picks up his first title and it seems like only Alcaraz or Sinner can stop him at the moment. Paul won their both previous matches and is definitely good enough to give him a good go, but Zverev should be able to fend him off with his consistency off the ground and how massive that high-percentage first-serve is.
Prediction: Zverev in 4

Tope:
Both players have demonstrated strong form leading up to this match. Zverev has been consistent, dropping only one set in the tournament so far, while Paul showcased his prowess with a demolition job of Ugo Humbert in 87 minutes in the fourth round.

Paul’s previous successes against Zverev and his current momentum may give him a psychological edge, but the German looks like he is mentally ready to capture his first Major, and I think this determination, married with his big-match experience, will get him over the line in this one.
Prediction: Zverev in 5

Ateet:
Both players have looked close to their best so far, and this should be a great match. Tommy Paul leads the head-to-head and has won both their meetings, but it has been quite some time since these two last met. Zverev has a big advantage on serve while Paul is a better returner. Paul has the game to unsettle Zverev with his variety and the German will have to be prepared for different spins. Much will also depend on how well Zverev hits his forehand.
Prediction: Zverev in 5

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Jim:
It is to Alexander Zverev’s credit that he has started to perform quite consistently at the Majors after such a difficult start to his career on tennis’ four biggest stages. His ranking of World #2 does not do much to disguise the reality that Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are the two leading lights in men’s tennis, but Zverev is not so very far away from turning that duopoly into a triumvirate.

That is in large part because he has started to beat players that he should beat more often than not at the Majors. Players like Tommy Paul. The American is an exceptional athlete, but outlasting Zverev is a difficult task, and Paul does not have the power to go toe-to-toe with the German from the baseline. Expect Zverev to have the edge.
Prediction: Zverev in 4

Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz

Jordan:
Djokovic usually gets through the early rounds in Melbourne, but his high level in the tournament so far has made a statement after question marks about his motivation since winning Olympic gold. The conditions this year are also slightly slower than the last few editions, and are very slow in the evening. I like Djokovic’s chances of hanging tough on a slow hard court and grinding down Alcaraz, who naturally wants to entertain with flamboyant shotmaking.
Prediction: Djokovic in 4

Damian:
Djokovic was expected to struggle at least a bit against the Czech duo of Machac/Lehecka, but he’s still here and took them both out without dropping a set. His chances of winning this title from here only look slim because of the nightmare draw–potentially having to play Alcaraz, Zverev, and Sinner back-to-back-to-back. Can he win one of these matches? Sure. But the favorite is still the Spaniard with his wide range of options and physical intensity giving him a lot of time to work something out in best-of-five play. If his new serve motion will be on point on the day, that will help too as it could negate Djokovic’s biggest advantage over him right now.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5

Tope:
The highly anticipated quarterfinal clash is finally here. The Serb holds a slight edge in their head-to-head meetings, leading 4-3, so this, like previous encounters, is expected to be closely contested.

Alcaraz’s aggressive baseline play and formidable forehand will challenge Djokovic’s defensive skills and trademark resilience, but the veteran has been invincible in his last two matches. The younger Spaniard, too, looks in tremendous shape in Melbourne and is trying to complete the career grand slam. Djokovic will offer a stiff challenge but I expect Alcaraz to prevail eventually.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4

Ateet:
After a slow start in the first two rounds, Djokovic has looked brilliant in his last two matches and arrives in great form to take on Alcaraz. The Spaniard will be looking to take revenge for the Olympic final loss and reach his first-ever semifinal at the Australian Open. The longer the match goes, the more it will favour Alcaraz and Djokovic will be aware of that which makes the first set very important for the 10-time champion. Alcaraz has never beaten Djokovic on a hard court before and this is his time.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 5

Jim:
This match will offer an interesting insight into how much Novak Djokovic wants that 25th Grand Slam title. At this late stage in his career, Djokovic still has the rare ability to seemingly be able to win matches by sheer force of will–as he did against Carlos Alcaraz in Paris to win Gold last year–but there is also no doubt that his physical powers are on the wane and, unusually, he seemed short of motivation for much of 2024.

I would guess that whilst Djokovic wants that 25th Major, he does not feel like he needs it. His achievements will stand the test of time without it. Which also means that, because Alcaraz is the better player at this stage of their careers, the Spaniard will probably win this match–even if he is made to work hard to do so.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 4

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