Get ready for the most physical and gritty basketball you will see all season on Saturday when the No. 11 Auburn Tigers face off against the No. 4 Houston Cougars in what could be a Final Four-caliber matchup.

Which contender will come out of this bout with a win?

Keep reading for our Auburn Tigers vs. Houston Cougars prediction, preview, and betting pick!

Auburn vs. Houston odds

Auburn vs. Houston prediction

(9:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU)

The spread for this inevitably defensive-centric matchup holds steady at 2.5 points in favor of the Houston Cougars.

Despite Houston (first in adjEM) and Auburn (second in adjEM) being fourth and 11th in the AP Poll, respectively, they are the top two teams in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metric.

While both squads have plenty of offensive talent, their defenses are what stands out.

For instance, under head coach Kelvin Sampson, team defense and offensive rebounding have been staples for the Cougars’ program. 

In fact, Houston has finished in the top 10 in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) in each of the past four seasons.

Further, during that span, the Cougars have never finished below sixth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage.

One area in which Houston has shown tremendous growth over the past two seasons is ball protection, ranking in the top 15 in the country in turnovers per game.

It is incredibly challenging to beat a team that refuses to beat itself. 

With returning veterans like LJ Cryer, Terrance Arceneaux, J’Wan Roberts, Mylik Wilson, Joseph Tugler, Ramon Walker Jr, and Emanuel Sharp, one thing is for sure: the Cougars won’t beat themselves this season either.

The Auburn Tigers also brought back loads of talent, including arguably the best two-way frontcourt player in the nation, Johni Broome.

Broome posted 16.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 3.1 “stocks” (steals and blocks) per game on a ridiculous 54.8% shooting from the field; he also put a lid on the rim on the other end of the floor, helping Auburn hold opponents to the lowest two-point percentage (42.9%) in the country.

And, to no one’s surprise, Auburn also smashed its first opponent (Vermont), holding the Catamounts to 25.9% shooting from the field and 21.7% from 3-point land.

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Auburn vs. Houston pick

The Cougars are fresh off a season in which they held a 10-5-2 ATS record at home.

While this game is not on their home floor, it will be in Houston at the Toyota Center, closely resembling a home environment.

In front of their own fans, the Cougars held opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 40.1% last season, the lowest percentage of any team in the country.

They also had the highest average scoring margin. 

We could see these two teams in a Final Four or National Championship matchup later in the season.

For now, enjoy a bloodbath and a narrow Houston win due to superior ball protection and offensive rebounding.

Best Bet: Houston -2.5 (-118, FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Andrew Norton handicaps the NBA, WNBA, NFL, college basketball and football, UFC and golf. During the 2022-23 NBA season, he achieved a standout 14.1% ROI, cashing 60% of his NBA spread picks and leading Tallysight in its SportsIQ metric.