ATP US Open 1/64-Finals

Shang – Bublik: 26.08.2024 17:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1

Juncheng Shang has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Winston-Salem, Shang withdrew from his 1/8-Final match against Sonego. Before that in Washington, Shang retired mid-match against Rinderknech after he was 3-2 up. There are obviously some fitness issues going on with the Chinese player. He also skipped the tournaments in Montreal and Cincinnati. So far this season, Shang has not have any remarkable results, but stayed consistent throughout the whole season, which led to him being part of the top 100 in the rankings.

Alexander Bublik has lost three straight matches. His last win was at Wimbledon over a month ago. His only competitive preparation tournament for the upcoming US Open was in Montreal, where he lost against Shelton in the first round. So far this season, Bublik has won the title in Montpellier. Other than that, Alexander did not have any remarkable results, which led to him dropping out of the top 20. Last year in New York, Bublik lost in the first round against Thiem in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Shang is the slight favorite in this matchup. Considering his current fitness issues, we believe that Bublik should have been the favorite in this match. Shang retired two times recently, so we are not sure if he will be fit for his opening match.

That being said, Bublik winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Bublik winning @2.20 @bet365

Ugo Carabelli – Fritz: 26.08.2024 18:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Santo Domingo, Ugo withdrew from his second round match. His last hard court match was earlier this month in Montreal, when he failed to qualify, losing against Duckworth in the first qualifying round. His last hard court win was at the Australian Open qualifying tournament. Ugo has never won a main-draw match on hard courts at the main-draw level. His last two US Open appearances ended in the qualifying tournament.

Taylor Fritz has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Cincinnati, Taylor lost his first round match against Nakashima as we predicted. Besides winning the title in Delray Beach earlier this season, Fritz did not have any remarkable results on the hard courts. Last year in New York, Taylor reached the quarterfinals, where he lost against Djokovic in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Taylor is the big favorite in this matchup. Ugo Carabelli is one of the worst, if not the worst, top 100 players playing on the hard courts. Even though Fritz is not in his best form, he is still a way better hard-court player than Ugo. We expect him to dominate from the very start, and win this match easily.

That being said, Fritz covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Taylor Fritz -9.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports