Tennis betting tips: ATP Tour

1pt e.w. Ugo Humbert in the Swiss Indoors at 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

1pt e.w. Arthur Fils in the Swiss Indoors at 16/1 (General)

0.5pt e.w. Gael Monfils in the Erste Bank Open at 25/1 (bet365)

0.5pt e.w Alexei Popyrin in the Erste Bank Open at 28/1 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Swiss Indoors

• Basel, Switzerland (indoor hard)

I wrote about the motivation carrot of the looming ATP Finals last week and, seven days on, it’s arguably even more important.

While last week’s events all offered a maximum of 250 ranking points in the ‘Race to Turin’, there’s double that on offer in Basel (and Vienna, see below) this week.

In Switzerland, that brings the top three seeds – Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas – into the thinking but are any of them in the form to take advantage?

I’m certainly not convinced enough to be backing them at fairly short prices.

It’s not been the best season for Rublev and last week his iffy form continued with a quarter-final defeat to Jiri Lehecka in Stockholm. Here, he’s got Marin Cilic and Ben Shelton in his quarter and both have the tools to make life hard for Rublev on the GreenSet of Basel, a surface which tends be medium in pace terms.

At the other end of the draw is Ruud. He also lost in the last eight in Stockholm and has won just one of his last six matches. As mentioned last week, top-40 wins have been thin on the ground away from the clay – just one since February. He’s not winning this week.

As for Tsitsipas, the Greek is another to have struggled off the clay – only once has he posted three wins in a row on another surface in 2024 and that was at January’s Australian Open.

In short, the big guns are very much worth opposing this week and I will do so by turning to two Frenchmen.

In the top half, that of Rublev and Tsitsipas, I’m going with 16/1 shot ARTHUR FILS.

He made this column a decent profit when reaching the Antwerp final indoors during this period of last season and he’s played well of late, capturing the Tokyo title earlier this month.

He opens against a qualifier before likely facing Antwerp runner-up Lehecka, although you have to feel the Czech may struggle with the quick turnaround – he’s yet to play in back-to-back finals on the ATP Tour.

The struggling Tsitsipas may await in the quarter-finals so, overall, I think that’s a pretty decent path to the semis for the young French star, who is more than capable on all surfaces.

In the bottom half, UGO HUMBERT, a semi-finalist here 12 months ago, is worth siding with.

Admittedly, he’s a player who I seem to have backed in the wrong weeks too often in the past, although I do remember being on him when he won in Antwerp during COVID.

With three finals already under his belt, Humbert is enjoying the best season of his career and another looks a decent possibility here.

The 26-year-old loves playing indoors – three of his six tour-level titles have come with a roof over his head, including Metz last autumn and Marseille this February.

He’s another to have shown decent form of late, losing that Tokyo final to Fils, while I can certainly excuse the defeat which followed a few days later against Gael Monfils in Shanghai.

I love his draw too – a qualifier and then either Roberto Carballes Baena or Matteo Arnaldi to reach the last eight where Holger Rune may await, although given the fourth seed’s form, that’s far from certain.

It would be amiss not to mention Felix Auger-Aliassime, who is also in this half of the draw.

The Canadian is the two-time defending champion so clearly loves playing in Basel but the fact is he has lost five of his last six matches so I’d have real concerns about siding with him to complete a hat-trick.

Humbert looks better value – it’s the two Frenchmen for me.

Erste Bank Open

• Vienna, Austria (indoor hard)

Dominic Thiem isn’t going to win this week but I had to mention him in this preview.

The Austrian, who will retire after his last match in Vienna, was some player in his pomp, especially on the clay, and he came close at Roland Garros on several occasions.

I long felt he would be the man to finally topple the ‘King of Clay’ Rafael Nadal and while I was wrong on that score, it’s of huge credit to Thiem that he was able to adapt his game and get to grips with faster surfaces. He will forever have the tag of ‘Grand Slam champion’ attached to his name following his victory at the 2020 US Open.

Injuries took their toll after that success but if anyone deserves a farewell like this, it’s Thiem, who won this title in front of his home fans in 2019.

Another former champion, Alex Zverev, heads up this field and is chalked up as the bookies’ favourite but he looks very much worth taking on.

The German recently revealed a lung issue and I have to question his motivation levels this week given he’s already qualified for those ATP Finals, not to mention the fact that there’s the Paris Masters coming up next week where more ranking points and bigger prize money will be on offer.

Alex de Minaur, Tommy Paul and Grigor Dimitrov sit nine, 10 and 11 in the Race to Turin so know a big week here would be a massive step towards those season-ending Finals.

Will they deliver though?

De Minaur looked understandably rusty last week when he returned to action for the first time since the US Open.

That was in contrast to Paul and Dimitrov, who contested the Stockholm final, but the pair now face the tough challenge of backing that up and Dimitrov in particular looked jaded at the end of that event.

All are short enough for me.

In what looks a tricky draw to predict, I’ll instead go with the normal approach of trying to find some value further down the market.

In the top half, it may be worth taking a chance on veteran GAEL MONFILS.

He played well in the slick conditions of Shanghai recently, beating seeds Ugo Humbert and Sebastian Baez before losing a tight one to Carlos Alcaraz. Notably, Monfils beat the Spaniard in Cincinnati prior to the US Open.

It also plays pretty fast in Vienna since they ripped up the OptiCourt surface and replaced it with Rebound Ace a few years back.

Monfils has twice made the semis here since that switch, while he was also a beaten finalist here way back in 2008.

Many of his best results have come indoors over the years – eight of his 12 ATP titles have been won on indoor hard, while he’s reached eight other such finals.

While Monfils hasn’t always been the best player to back at this time of year due to the wear and tear on his fragile body, he did claim the Stockholm title in this period in 2023 and he looks fairly well drawn this week.

After opening against a qualifier, he could face sixth seed Lorenzo Musetti, a player who has lost seven of his eight indoor matches over the past 12 months.

Zverev is potential quarter-final opponent but a price of 25/1 looks worth a punt.

In the opposite half, that of Paul and De Minaur, I’m also happy to take on fifth seed Frances Tiafoe, who is now 2-3 since his semi-final run at the US Open where he essentially admitted he would struggle for motivation once he left New York.

Last week’s winner Karen Khachanov is also in this section, alongside, Matteo Berrettini, but I’m going to take chance on ALEXEI POPYRIN.

He let us down in Tokyo, although his loss there to Tomas Machac was seen in a better light once the Czech had made back-to-back semi-finals in Asia.

It’s more important to focus on the reasons why we backed him that week in the first place – victory at the Montreal Masters and a run to the last 16 of the US Open.

I believe he has the game to translate to indoor conditions and I’d expect his strong serve to be a decent weapon this week.

Again, this isn’t the toughest-looking section of the draw – De Minaur is the top seed in the quarter – and I feel this is a great opportunity.

Popyrin will start against a qualifier and, if he progresses, will then meet either Miomir Kecmanovic or Mariano Navone.

Should he face De Minaur in the last eight, Popyrin will draw on the fact he crushed his fellow Aussie in their only previous indoor hardcourt match (in Paris in 2021).

Back him each way at 28/1.

Posted at 2130 BST on 20/10/24

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