The 2024 ATP Kinoshita Group Japan Open Tennis Championships kick off its main draw action on Wednesday in Tokyo. Already featuring on the schedule will be No. 2 seed Hubert Hurkacz and last year’s semifinalist Shintaro Mochizuki. Who do you think will come out on top?

ATP Tokyo Day 1 Predictions

Mariano Navone vs Luciano Darderi

Head-to-head: 3-3

They’ve played each other six times within the last 12 months, but all these meetings came on clay. Hard court is a much less natural surface for both players with Luciano Darderi going 1-7 on it this year and Mariano Navone being 1-5. But over the course of the season, it was definitely the Italian who did slightly more to impress away from the dirt. His serve and forehand can be dangerous on quicker courts with more playtime as well.
Prediction: Darderi in 3

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Matteo Berrettini

Head-to-head: Berrettini 3-0

Matteo Berrettini recently beat Botic van de Zandschulp from a set down at Davis Cup, but it was no bed of roses. The Dutchman regained a lot of confidence over the summer, culminating in the win over Carlos Alcaraz at the US Open. Outdoors he should feel a little more comfortable in this matchup than he did under the roof as well. But Berrettini is generally a class above and he might simply play better on the day than he did during their match ten days ago.
Prediction: Berrettini in 3

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Shintaro Mochizuki vs Ugo Humbert

Head-to-head: First meeting

Shintaro Mochizuki had that semifinal run in Tokyo last year and while these points aren’t dropping until late October, he might suffer a huge dip in the rankings then. His results since haven’t done much to prove that the Japanese is ready to play like this every week. Will he be able to recapture some of that 2023 magic? It’s not completely out of the question, but it’s a result that would defy logic again. Nine out of ten times Ugo Humbert is just too strong here.
Prediction: Humbert in 2

Hubert Hurkacz vs Marcos Giron

Head-to-head: Hurkacz 2-0

Hubert Hurkacz hasn’t played since the US Open or since letting his coach of five years, Craig Boynton, go. Getting some rest should be a good call from him as in New York it was clear he’s still not fully recovered from his recent knee procedure. This isn’t an obvious match with Marcos Giron having the shot tolerance to keep him in the rallies and forcing the Pole to come up with some aggressive play off the ground. But it’s the Tokyo second seed who remains the favorite.
Prediction: Hurkacz in 3

Main Photo Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports