ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai 1/32-Finals

Bellucci – Zverev: 05.10.2024 Time TBA
H2H: first meeting

Mattia Bellucci has won four of her last five matches. Last week in Tokyo, Bellucci entered the main-draw tournament as a qualifier, where he lost in the opening main-draw round against Draper in straight sets. Here in Shanghai, Mattia is yet to lose a set, after playing three matches. In the first qualifying round, Bellucci defeated Shimizu in straight sets. Eventually, in the final qualifying round, Mattia defeated Karatsev in straight sets. Yesterday, in the opening round of the main draw, Bellucci won against Harris in straight sets once again.

Alexander Zverev has won three of his last five matches. The last tournament he played was the Laver Cup. Zverev won, and lost one singles match against the Americans. His last competitive tournament was the US Open, where he reached the quarterfinals, losing against Fritz in four sets as we predicted. Last year in Shanghai, Zverev was upset by Safiullin in the opening round. Alexander played poorly, winning only four games against the Russian.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Zverev is the big favorite in this matchup. He had no preparation tournaments for the Asian swing. On the other hand, Bellucci has already spent some time in Asia, and also had some decent results. We believe that he will be fully confident coming into this match, so we expect him to keep this match tight.

That being said, Bellucci covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Mattia Bellucci +4.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365

Alcaraz – Shang: 05.10.2024 Time TBA
H2H: 1-0

Carlos Alcaraz has won 9 straight matches. Last week in Beijing, Carlos lifted the title. Alcaraz defeated Sinner in the final as we predicted. It was a tough three-setter, but Carlos played better under pressure, and deservedly won the title. Last week, Carlos lost his world number 2 ranking to Alexander Zverev. However, with his recent run here in Beijing, Alcaraz quickly returned to 2nd spot in the world. Last year in Shanghai, Carlos lost in the 1/8-Finals against Dimitrov in three tight sets.

Juncheng Shang has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Beijing, Shang lost his opening match against By in three tight sets. Before that, Shang won the title in Chengdu, winning against Musetti in the final as we predicted. Shang is looking for a decent result this week to get into the top 50 in the rankings. Here in Shanghai, Juncheng defeated Wong in the opening round in straight sets. Last year in Shanghai, Shang lost his opening round match against Watanuki in three tight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Alcaraz is a big favorite in this matchup. Shang loves to play in front of his crowd. We believe that he will play this match without any pressure or any expectations. Alcaraz has not had almost any time to rest after winning the title, so we believe that he will be emotionally exhausted coming into this match.

That being said, Shang covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Juncheng Shang +5.5 games handicap @1.67 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports