ATP 500 Rio de Janeiro 1/8-Finals

Baez – Navone: 19.02.2025 22:00 CEST
H2H: 1-0

Sebastian Baez has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Sebastian lost in the second round against Seyboth Wild in straight sets, as we predicted. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Sebastian won the opening match against Burruchaga in straight sets. He was a better player throughout the match and deservedly won in straight sets. It is his fourth appearance in Rio. He is the defending champion here. Last season, Baez won in the final against Navone in straight sets.

Mariano Navone has won four of his last five matches. Navone reached the quarterfinals last week in Buenos Aires, losing against Fonseca in three tight sets. Mariano won his opening match against Carballes Baena in straight sets this week in Rio de Janeiro. He dominated from the start until the end and won without any problems. Last season, Mariano reached the final, losing against Baez in the final.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 match, but we disagree. Last year in Rio, Baez demolished Navone, winning 6-2 6-1. He is the defending champion this week, and we expect him to go deep this week. He is a better player than Navone and will win this match.

That being said, Baez winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Baez winning @2.00 @bet365

Zverev – Shevchenko: 19.02.2025 23:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Alexander Zverev has won three of his last five matches. In his opening clay court tournament, Sascha underperformed. Last week in Buenos Aires, Cerundolo, as we predicted, upset Zverev in the quarterfinals in three sets. Sascha won the opening match against Bu this week in Rio de Janeiro in tight straight sets. He struggled in the opening set, saving the set point. Sascha reached the final at the Australian Open at the beginning of the season, losing against Zverev in straight sets as we predicted. Last season, Zverev played well on clay. He reached the final at the French Open and won the Masters 1000 title in Rome.

Alexander Shevchenko has lost three of his last five matches. So far this season, he has struggled with his form, which has resulted in him being outside the top 100. Last week in Delray Beach, Alexander lost against Mmoh in the opening round in straight sets. This week in Rio, Shevchenko won against Meligeni Alves in easy straight sets. Around this time last season, Shevchenko played in Doha, losing in straight sets against Gasquet in the opening round.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Zverev is the big favorite in this matchup, but we disagree. He struggled against Bu in the opening round match. On the other hand, Shevchenko dominated against Meligeni Alves. He played incredibly well. We expect Zverev to win, but Alexander will keep this match tight.

That being said, Shevchenko covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alexander Shevchenko +5.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images