ATP 500 Rio de Janeiro semifinals

Comesana – Muller: 22.02.2025 22:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Francisco Comesana has won three of his last five matches. Comesana won the opening match against Heide this week in Rio de Janeiro in three tight sets. He was solid under pressure, saving six out of the seven breakpoints. Comesana spent over three hours on the court in the second round, winning against Jarry in three tie-breaks. Yesterday, in the quarterfinals, Comesana upset Zverev in three tight sets. It was one of the best matches he ever played.

Alexandre Muller has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Muller lost in the opening round match against Djere in straight sets. This week in Rio, Muller upset one of the biggest favorites, Joao Fonseca. After winning his maiden ATP title, Fonseca looked exhausted on the court. Muller played great, saving both breakpoints he offered. He won in straight sets without any problems. In the second round, Muller won against Etcheverry in tight straight sets. Yesterday, in the quarterfinals, Muller upset Cerundolo in straight sets. Alexandre ended his 2024 clay court season by winning a Challenger title in San Marino.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Muller is the slight favorite in this matchup, and we agree. Muller won the title in Hong Kong at the beginning of the season. He performs well under pressure and has more experience at the highest level than Comesana.

That being said, Muller winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Alexandre Muller winning @1.67 @bet365

Baez – Ugo Carabelli: 22.02.2025 21:00 CEST
H2H: 3-0

Sebastian Baez has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Sebastian lost in the second round against Seyboth Wild in straight sets, as we predicted. This week in Rio de Janeiro, Sebastian won the opening match against Burruchaga in straight sets. He was a better player throughout the match and deservedly won in straight sets. As we had predicted, Sebastian won against Navone in three tight sets in the second round. It is his fourth appearance in Rio. Baez won against Tseng in the quarterfinals in straight sets, as we had predicted. He is the defending champion here. Last season, Baez won in the final against Navone in straight sets.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Buenos Aires, Camilo lost in the opening round against Baez in straight sets. This week in Rio de Janeiro, he failed to qualify for the main draw tournament, losing in the final qualifying round against Barrios Vera. However, he entered the main draw as a lucky loser. Ugo Carabelli upset Pablo Martinez in three tight sets in the opening main draw round. After losing the opening set 4-6, Ugo successfully turned the match around. In the second round, Camilo easily won against Dzumhur in straight sets. Yesterday, in the quarterfinals, Ugo won against Faria in straight sets, as we predicted.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Baez is the favorite in this matchup, and we agree. He is a better player than Ugo Carabelli and has more experience at the highest level. We believe his skills and experience will prevail in this matchup.

That being said, Baez winning in straight sets is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Baez winning 2-0 @2.10 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports