Andrey Rublev and Jack Draper will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they battle for the title at the Qatar ExxonMobil Open on Saturday evening. Rublev has won all three of their previous encounters. He prevailed twice in 2022 (2-6, 6-4, 7-5 at the Madrid Masters and 6-4, 6-2 in Washington, D.C.) before scoring a 6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory at the 2023 U.S. Open.

However, those meetings came before Draper’s rise up the rankings began in earnest. The 23-year-old Brit is currently playing by far the best tennis of his career and he has climbed to 16th in the world (will be No. 11 on Monday if he lifts the trophy). Draper is 7-1 so far this season with a fourth-round showing at the Australian Open and Doha defeats of Alexei Popyrin, Christopher O’Connell, Matteo Berrettini, and Jiri Lehecka. The left-hander needed three sets against Berrettini and Lehecka but played at a very high level in both matches.

Rublev has also been outstanding this week, which is nothing new for him in Doha. The 10th-ranked Russian is 15-5 all time at this tournament with a title in 2020. He is back in the championship match following victories over Alexander Bublik, Nuno Borges, Alex de Minaur, and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Rublev outlasted both De Minaur and Auger-Aliassime in third-set tiebreakers.

Fans in Doha have witnessed thrilling, high-quality matches left and right throughout the week. With both finalists in stellar form, they should be in for another treat on Saturday.

Rublev is the more reliable player from a physical standpoint, but Draper is enjoying a rare clean bill of health and looked fine on Friday despite enduring a second consecutive three-setter. It’s not like Rublev is entirely well rested, either, having gone the distance in each of his past two matches. The No. 5 seed was clearly dealing with some kind of illness during his semifinal showdown against Auger-Aliassime, too.

Draper has been the superior of the two players dating back to last fall. He is 2-0 in his last two ATP finals and looks poised to make it three in a row this weekend.

Pick: Draper in 3