ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati 1/32-Finals

Cobolli – Paul: 12.08.2024 21:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Flavio Cobolli has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Montreal, Flavio lost in the second round of the tournament against Rinderknech in straight sets. It was a low-quality performance from the Italian, who was exhausted on the court. Just a week before that, Flavio managed to get into the ATP Washington final where he lost against Korda in three sets. Around this time last year, Flavio spent most of his time at the challenger tour level. These current wins are much needed for his self-confidence, especially now with the US Open coming up. This will be his first appearance here in Cincinnati.

Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Montreal, Tommy lost in the second round of the tournament against Nakashima in three sets. Paul was inconsistent throughout the whole match, and just could not do much. With a solid result here in Cincinnati, Paul could become a top 10 player next week. Last year in Cincinnati, Tommy reached the third round of the tournament, where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz in a three-set thriller match.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Paul is the favorite in this matchup. We believe that he is overall a better hard-court player than Cobolli. Paul lost his last match against Brandon, just because he was exhausted after the Olympic Games.

That being said, Paul winning in straight sets is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Tommy Paul winning 2-0 @1.70 @bet365

Khachanov – Cerundolo: 13.08.2024 01:30 CEST
H2H: 5-0

Karen Khachanov has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Montreal, Karen lost his second round match against Arnaldi in straight sets as we predicted. It was another low-quality performance from the Russian. His poor form continues. In the last couple of months, Karen lost against a lot of underdogs. The last time Karen won consecutive matches was in Rome in May. His most recent appearance in Cincinatti was in 2022, where he lost in the first round against Korda.

Francisco Cerundolo has won four of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Paris at the Olympic Games, where he lost in the 1/8-Finals against Casper Ruud. His last hard court match was in Miami in March where he lost in the second round against Khachanov in three tight sets. Being an Argentinian, Cerundolo spent most of his career playing on the clay courts. Here in Cincinnati, Khachanov competed twice, and failed both times in the first round.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Khachanov is the slight favorite in this matchup. Looking at his recent performances, we can not agree with that. Even though Cerundolo usually underperforms on the fast surfaces, we still believe that he is in good form, and that he will have a good chance against Karen.

That being said, Cerundolo winning is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Francisco Cerundolo winning @2.38 @bet365

Main Photo Credit: David Kirouac-USA TODAY Sports