In basketball, every generation has a defining player.
Michael Jordan was that figure for those who followed the game in the 80s and 90s, while LeBron has taken that mantle over the past two decades.
And now, a new talent has risen to take the King’s place.
Victor Wembanyama has delivered on the hype, and then some. The French phenom is doing things that has never been seen on a basketball court, and it’s not an exaggeration to say that he’ll likely go down as one of the best to ever do it, health permitting.
Before we get there, though, let’s first analyze the Lakers’ struggles, and how much LeBron still has left in the tank.
For the first time in his career, LeBron looks mortal. And now that I’ve said that, he’s going to enter his sixth prime and continue to prove us wrong.
In all seriousness, this seems different than previous times when LeBron appeared to have lost a step. He’s about to turn 40(!!!) in a few weeks and is noticeably slower than he was last year, and the stats back it up.
Offensively, just 40% of LeBron’s field goal attempts have come within four feet of the basket — the second-lowest percentage over the last decade. LeBron’s 68% conversion rate at the rim is also the second-lowest of his entire career and his worst since 2006. In other words, LeBron just doesn’t have the same stamina or explosiveness that he used to possess, and he’s now passing up obvious driving opportunities in exchange for lower percentage shots.
For instance, he could’ve taken advantage of Julius Randle’s poor closeout below by going straight to the rim, especially with Rudy Gobert guarding the perimeter. Instead, LeBron decided to attempt a three, and that was one of the 19 he missed in a row — also a sign that he doesn’t get much lift on his shots now.
Astonishingly, LA’s struggles this year have largely come with LeBron playing. With him on the court, the Lakers have a shocking -7.8 net rating (112 offensive rating, 119.8 defensive), and LA is still -6.4 (114 ORTG, 120.4 DRTG) even when he’s paired with Anthony Davis. Worst of all, the Lakers are +11.1 (123.3 ORTG, 112.2 DRTG) when LeBron sits!
Of course, on/off numbers don’t tell the entire story. It can’t account for the quality of a player’s opponents or signs of unsustainable shooting: opponents are making an absurd 40.2% of their threes when King James is on, and just 29.5% when he’s off.
Still, I question whether the Lakers can be a positive with LeBron even when those numbers normalize. It’s evident that he can no longer carry an offense like before, and LA doesn’t have many good shooters or creators who can reliably shoulder that burden, either.
Defensively, things are even more dire. This season, LeBron has shown that he doesn’t have any energy left to use in his own end, and that’s seeped into the rest of the team.
Their struggles start with poor communication. The first possession below is an example, as LA should’ve begun rotating as soon as AD contained the drive. Instead, the play ends with a wide-open three from Miami, which isn’t surprising considering that the only above-average defender on the court was AD. Afterwards, the second possession is simply a lack of effort.
This next clip fully encapsulates the Lakers’ defensive issues. First, Dalton Knecht and D’Angelo Russell miscommunicate by running to Bam Adebayo simultaneously, while LeBron doesn’t even try to stop Jimmy Butler’s drive even after noticing the breakdown.
Simply put, LeBron’s inability to carry the team on either side of the floor will result in the Lakers remaining mediocre. Even so, it’s remarkable that he’s still very much an All-Star calibre player at almost 40 years old, and fans shouldn’t take him for granted regardless of their rooting interests.
The end is nigh for one of the game’s greatest players, and we need to appreciate every second of it while it lasts.
LeBron had one of the greatest sophomore seasons ever 20 years ago, and now Victor Wembanyama is doing the same.
As one king falls, another will take his place.
There aren’t enough words to describe an extraterrestrial being like Wemby, whose growth has been so rapid that it’s hard to fathom what he’ll look like at his peak.
Consider this: the Spurs were +9.0 points better defensively with Wemby playing last year (112.8 on, 121.8 off), and that mark has somehow increased to +11.2 this season (110.6 on, 121.8 off). In other words, San Antonio currently boasts a top-10 defense with Wemby on the court, which becomes the league’s second-worst when he sits.
Unsurprisingly, rim protection is his greatest asset. Opponents are shooting just 47.4% within six feet of the basket with Wemby defending — the second-best mark in the league amongst every player who’s contested at least 100 such shots this year. More importantly, that 47.4% mark is 16% lower than what opponents are expected to make, which also ranks second. (Only Chet Holmgren is better in both stats, but he did that with a much smaller sample size)
Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the scariest part yet: Wemby still has plenty of room for growth, even though he’s already the undisputed best defender in the league.
Specifically, the French phenom is often overzealous and gambles for steals. Take a look at the two clips below, where he makes ill-timed swipes at the ball, letting the opposing player drive to the rim.
However, much like a xenomorph, Wemby refuses to be left for dead regardless of the situation and recovers to make two incredible blocks. Unlike some other bigs, he can also guard quick perimeter players, as his length and agility allow him to make a good contest even if he’s been blown by. Wemby is truly a defensive unicorn who can switch 1-5, and with time and experience, he could get even better by improving his decision-making.
None of that is surprising, though, unlike his offensive game.
So far this season, Wemby is 13th in threes attempted per 36 minutes (10.2) while making 33.7% of those shots, but he’s up to 40.5% in his past nine games after a slow start. There’s been much scrutiny over his propensity to jack threes from the logo at the beginning of the shot clock, and I share that frustration — but if it means that he’ll improve as a shooter and this LaMelo Ball phase is a temporary side effect of that, then I’m all for it.
Inside the arc, Wemby doesn’t have much of a post-up/back-to-the-basket game, but he doesn’t need to. He can get to the rim at will due to his unique combination of size, speed, and skill, and it’s BBQ chicken if he gets the ball on the move.
Passing is another area in which Wemby has improved substantially. He now makes reads at a much faster rate, and the most exciting development is that he’s able to improvise passes on the fly.
Take a look at the clip below. It seems like he initially wanted to drop the ball down to Barnesy Barnes, but chose instead to kick out to Stephon Castle due to the defense collapsing.
Later, he whipped another pass out to the perimeter, this time to Devin Vassell. I’m not sure if this was the right decision given that Wemby had a mismatch, but that’s beside the point: the fact that he has the vision and ability to make such passes is what’s important because it gives the offense more ways to attack.
In all, Wemby developing into a top-10 player this fast is terrifying due to how much room for growth he still has. He’s already an elite defense unto himself while also being a devastating offensive presence around the rim, and I haven’t even mentioned the potential of him becoming a lethal shooter, too.
As long as he stays healthy and improves some of his decision-making, Victor Wembanyama will go down as one of the 10 best basketball players to ever grace the hardwood.
This week, please check out Marilyn’s observations from the first quarter of the season! She does a great job of summarizing the important developments so far, and it’ll be interesting to see what does/doesn’t change moving forward.
Thanks for reading!
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.
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