First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

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Overperformer: Elijah Moore (Cleveland Browns)

1D/RR: 0.025
Result: 6 receptions, 41 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.1 (half-PPR)

Elijah Moore’s outlook in Cleveland has shifted with Amari Cooper being traded to the Bills. Deshaun Watson’s Achilles injury and Jameis Winston stepping in at quarterback could open new opportunities in the Browns’ passing game. With Cooper gone, there’s an opening for a new WR1, and Winston’s aggressive playstyle could breathe life into the offense. Moore’s role could expand, but it remains to be seen who will step into the top receiver spot in Cleveland.

Underperformer: Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders)

1D/RR: 0.263
Result: 6 receptions, 98 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.8 (half-PPR)

Terry McLaurin’s performance came in a game where the Commanders routed the Panthers, but it wasn’t his most productive outing despite his solid 0.263 1D/RR. Jayden Daniels suffered a rib injury, leading to Marcus Mariota stepping in at quarterback, and there’s a chance Mariota could play again in Week 8. Even with the quarterback uncertainty, McLaurin has been reliable all year and should continue to be a strong performer for fantasy managers, especially with his clear role as a go-to target in Washington’s offense.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!

Overperformer: Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings)

TPRR: 0.121
Result: 3 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.1 (half-PPR)

Jordan Addison has certainly shown flashes of talent, but he remains a very touchdown-dependent option for fantasy managers. His low 0.121 TPRR highlights his limited involvement in the Vikings’ passing game, and without those end zone trips, it’s hard to count on him consistently putting up 12+ half-PPR points. While the Vikings face the Rams this Thursday, and Sam Darnold has been solid, Addison’s fantasy value remains tied to whether or not he can find the end zone. He’s more of a boom-or-bust play, especially in tougher matchups.

Underperformer: Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs)

TPRR: 0.308
Result: 3 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 3.4 (half-PPR)

Despite his high 0.308 TPRR, Xavier Worthy was unable to capitalize in the Chiefs’ recent game, underperforming relative to his opportunities. This comes as the Chiefs’ defense continues to shine, consistently keeping games within reach and allowing Patrick Mahomes and the offense to operate without needing to go all-out. As a result, the offensive fireworks we’ve grown accustomed to haven’t been as necessary. Worthy’s underwhelming performance seems more tied to game script than anything else, but with the defense playing at such a high level, it may limit his fantasy upside going forward.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Van Jefferson (Pittsburgh Steelers)

YPRR: 0.714
Result: 2 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.5 (half-PPR)

Van Jefferson had a 0.714 YPRR, a number he massively overperformed when he found the end zone on Sunday night after the Steelers switched from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson. Russ was able to push the ball downfield and get multiple receiving options involved, allowing Jefferson to enjoy a moment of production. However, it’s important to note that this isn’t a sign of sustained fantasy value. He remains a player who shouldn’t be picked up off waivers, as this was more of a feel-good moment than a fantasy trend to count on going forward.

Underperformer: Troy Franklin (Denver Broncos)

YPRR: 2.273
Result: 5 receptions, 50 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.5 (half-PPR)

Troy Franklin had a 2.273 YPRR, but he didn’t quite live up to that expectation in a game where the Broncos thoroughly dismantled the Saints. As the season has progressed, Franklin has become more involved in the offense, which bodes well for his future production. While Bo Nix may not resemble the next Tom Brady, he has proven to be a serviceable quarterback, capable of managing the game effectively. If Franklin can continue to carve out a role, he could still provide some fantasy value, especially if Nix continues to improve in his decision-making and play.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

As we wrap up Week 7, it’s clear that the landscape of fantasy football continues to shift dramatically, especially with injuries taking their toll on some of the league’s top players. With three of the top five in Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) sidelined, managers will need to navigate these challenges wisely. It could be time for Jauan Jennings to shine again as the 49ers cope with injuries to multiple receivers, potentially leading to increased opportunities for him. It’s encouraging to see Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp set to return, which could reignite the Rams’ passing game and provide much-needed relief for fantasy managers. Meanwhile, Troy Franklin has been getting more involved as the Broncos continue to dominate. As we head into Week 8, good luck to everyone in managing your rosters and making the most of these opportunities!