It’s finally here—championship week. Everything we’ve done all season, every waiver wire move, every tough lineup decision, and every heartbreaking loss or exhilarating win has led to this moment. Week 16 brought all the drama we could ask for, and now we’re heading into Week 17, where champions are crowned and legacies (at least in our fantasy leagues) are written.

For me, Romeo Doubs earned barely any points on Monday Night Football because the Packers were blowing out the Saints. It was an unlikely blessing that punched my ticket to the finals in one league. Meanwhile, De’Von Achane’s refusal to slide in crunch time helped countless others secure their spots as well. It’s wild how much drama can unfold in just one week of fantasy football.

On a somber note, we’ll all miss Tank Dell. His devastating knee injury not only ended his season but will also keep him sidelined for all of next year. His absence will be felt in the weeks, months, and even seasons ahead.

As we look ahead to Week 17, we’ll use key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR to identify players poised for positive or negative regression. By digging into the data, we’ll discover who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!

Overperformer: D.K. Metcalf (Seattle Seahawks)

1D/RR: 0.476
Result: 3 receptions, 57 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.2 (half-PPR)

D.K. Metcalf overperformed his 0.476 1D/RR this week, thanks in large part to one big play for a touchdown. It’s been a frustrating season for fantasy managers counting on Metcalf, as his performances have been wildly unpredictable. While his athleticism and game-breaking ability are undeniable, the week-to-week volatility has made it tough to rely on him, especially in critical matchups.

Cover DK Metcalf 1-on-1 at your own riskpic.twitter.com/kAjKLchyhC

— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) December 22, 2024

With Jaxon Smith-Njigba emerging as the driving force in the Seahawks’ offense, Metcalf’s role feels more like a complementary deep threat rather than a consistent focal point. If you’ve made it to the championship with Metcalf on your roster, you might have the luxury of pivoting to a safer option, especially if your team has enough depth. For those who roll the dice with D.K., the hope is he delivers another big play or two—because in a shallow starting roster, that upside might not be worth the gamble.

Underperformer: DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)

1D/RR: 0.143
Result: 6 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.1 (half-PPR)

DeVonta Smith underperformed his 0.143 1D/RR this week, which has unfortunately been a common theme throughout his up-and-down season. A dropped pass on third down late in the game against the Commanders that would have sealed the win for the Eagles encapsulated the inconsistency we’ve seen from him this year.

With Jalen Hurts exiting that game due to a concussion, Smith’s outlook becomes even murkier heading into the championship. If Kenny Pickett ends up starting in Hurts’ place, Smith’s already shaky status becomes even more concerning. In a do-or-die situation, I’d be giving any other viable options on my roster serious consideration. While Smith has the talent to explode on any given week, trusting him with your championship hopes feels like a dicey proposition.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!

Overperformer: David Moore (Carolina Panthers)

TPRR: 0.107
Result: 2 receptions, 39 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.9 (half-PPR)

David Moore overperformed his 0.107 TPRR this week, largely thanks to a miracle moonball touchdown from Bryce Young. While it’s always nice to see a player capitalize on big plays, relying on a prayer like that during championship week is a dangerous game. Moore has had a decent season, especially considering his unexpected rise, but he’s not someone you can confidently start in the biggest game of the year.

That said, his performances this season make him an intriguing dynasty stash. Adding him to see how his role develops in the offseason could pay off, especially if the Panthers’ offense takes a step forward with Bryce Young’s progression. Moore has shown flashes, and while they’re not championship-caliber moments yet, they might be something worth holding onto for the future.

Underperformer: Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams)

TPRR: 0.421
Result: 8 receptions, 56 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.6 (half-PPR)

Puka Nacua underperformed his league-leading 0.421 TPRR this week, despite topping the stat charts. Unfortunately, his strong target rate wasn’t enough to overcome the defensive slugfest between the Jets and the Rams. It was a disappointing outcome for managers relying on Puka to carry them through the semifinals, as the game script kept offensive fireworks at bay.

That said, if you survived and made it to the championship with Puka, there’s reason to stay optimistic. He has a prime opportunity to bounce back in Week 17 against a struggling Arizona defense. With his role and talent, Nacua remains a high-upside play, and he could very well deliver the performance that fantasy managers hoped for last week when it matters most.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Jamison Crowder (Washington Commanders)

YPRR: 0.607
Result: 2 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 14.5 (half-PPR)

Jamison Crowder made a surprise appearance in fantasy relevance this week, overperforming his 0.607 YPRR thanks to an improbable two-touchdown performance. It’s been a long time since Crowder was a consistent name in fantasy circles, and seeing him pop up out of nowhere felt like a throwback to years past.

Of course, having a quarterback like Jayden Daniels can make just about anything possible, but even with his big day, plugging Crowder into your lineup in any format would be a wild gamble at best. This was more of a fun blip on the radar than something actionable, but hey, it’s always nice to reminisce about a player who once had his moment in the fantasy sun. Cheers to you, Jamison, for giving us something unexpected to talk about this week!

Underperformer: Jayden Reed (Green Bay Packers)

YPRR: 3.167
Result: 3 receptions, 76 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.1 (half-PPR)

Jayden Reed underperformed his impressive 3.167 YPRR on Monday Night Football in what turned out to be a lopsided affair. The Packers steamrolled the Saints, handing them the dubious honor of being the first team to be shut out this season. With Green Bay in cruise control for most of the game, the need to air it out was nonexistent, leaving Reed with a quiet stat line.

Truthfully, Reed has been a frustrating option for fantasy managers lately. While he undeniably has the talent and potential for league-winning upside, he’s equally capable of delivering a forgettable five-point outing that could derail your championship hopes. With everything on the line, it’s hard to trust him as anything more than a desperation play. If you have other viable options, it might be best to give Reed a pass this week and avoid the rollercoaster.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

Puka Nacua remains firmly at the top of PRS, and it’s becoming impossible to ignore his value in fantasy football. He’s a must-draft player next season and an absolute priority to acquire in dynasty leagues if you can. To be honest, Puka should be valued in the same tier as a Justin Jefferson-type player, yet he’s not quite there in trade markets. If there’s any window to get him, take the shot—this is two years in a row that Puka has finished in the top five of PRS, and that consistency speaks volumes.

Another name to keep on your radar is Brian Thomas Jr. His value is skyrocketing, and rightfully so. In dynasty leagues, acquiring him will likely cost you two mid-round firsts at minimum, and even that might feel like an underpay in hindsight. He’s someone you want on your roster before his ceiling is fully realized.

Good luck to everyone competing in your league’s championship—or fighting to escape the dreaded toilet bowl. It’s been an incredible season full of twists, turns, and breakout stars, and I can’t wait to see how it all wraps up!