Week 11 was a whirlwind in the NFL, and it might just mark the beginning of some big changes. The Detroit Lions delivered a statement win against the Jaguars, a blow so decisive it could very well mark the end of Doug Pederson’s time in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the Chiefs finally fell, putting an end to what may have been the most blah perfect start in recent memory. It feels like we’ve officially hit the chaos portion of the season, with teams scrambling to find their identities and fantasy managers scrambling to make sense of it all.

As we look ahead to Week 12, we’ll use key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR to identify players poised for positive or negative regression. By digging into the data, we’ll discover who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

Check out the Advanced Metrics Glossary here!

Overperformer: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Tennessee Titans)

1D/RR: 0.033
Result: 2 receptions, 117 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 18.7 (half-PPR)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine overperformed his abysmal 1D/RR of 0.033 in spectacular fashion, logging 18.7 fantasy points on what was essentially a one-play wonder. His entire fantasy relevance came from a broken play where he caught a 98-yard touchdown, showcasing how fluky fantasy production can be. Despite having the most receiving touchdowns on the Titans this season, Westbrook-Ikhine remains an incredibly volatile option for fantasy managers. Putting him in your lineup is a daunting task, as his role and opportunities in the offense are far from consistent. He’s the definition of a boom-or-bust player, and most weeks, it’s far more bust than boom. While plays like this keep his name floating in fantasy circles, it’s hard to trust him with any degree of confidence.

Underperformer: A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles)

1D/RR: 0.121
Result: 5 receptions, 65 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.0 (half-PPR)

A.J. Brown underperformed his 0.121 1D/RR this week, largely because all the touchdowns went to Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Brown’s quiet performance is more a product of game script than any concern about his role or talent. With the Eagles focusing on the run and capitalizing on short-yardage opportunities, the passing game took a backseat, limiting Brown’s involvement. There’s nothing to worry about here for fantasy managers; it was simply a game that didn’t require heavy volume through the air. Brown remains one of the most reliable wide receivers in the league and should bounce back in a more competitive or pass-heavy game script.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run deep dive as well!

Overperformer: Troy Franklin (Denver Broncos)

TPRR: 0.105
Result: 2 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.5 (half-PPR)

Troy Franklin overperformed his 0.105 TPRR this week, thanks to a well-timed touchdown that salvaged his fantasy performance. Bo Nix had his way with the Falcons’ defense, spreading the ball effectively and even getting Marvin Mims involved in the action. However, this game was a perfect microcosm of the volatility surrounding the Broncos’ pass-catchers. Week to week, it feels like a different wide receiver or running back dominates the target share, making it nearly impossible to have confidence in starting any of them consistently. Franklin’s outing was limited and while it was nice to see him get into the end zone again, trusting him—or any Denver pass-catcher—in your lineup remains a gamble that I for one am not willing to take.

Underperformer: Nico Collins (Houston Texans)

TPRR: 0.333
Result: 4 receptions, 54 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.4 (half-PPR)

Nico Collins made a triumphant return from his hamstring injury, posting a strong 0.333 TPRR in his first game back. The Texans thoroughly dominated the Cowboys, but their pass-catchers didn’t light up the box score—Joe Mixon stole the show, carrying the offense and doing most of the damage. Mixon has been an absolute workhorse for Houston, and when they grab an early lead, they’re not shy about leaning on him to close out games. Collins still made his presence felt. In fact, he had a 70ish-yard touchdown in the first quarter that was called back due to an illegal man downfield penalty, which would have elevated his game into a top-12 WR week. Despite the limited passing volume in this game, it’s great to have Nico back in our lives, reminding us of his big-play ability and why he’s a key part of fantasy lineups moving forward.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)

YPRR: 1.219
Result: 2 receptions, 39 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.9 (half-PPR)

Zay Flowers overperformed his 1.219 YPRR, largely thanks to a touchdown in the waning moments of the game. Flowers has been a consistent and reliable asset this season, cementing himself as a key piece in the Ravens’ offense. Looking ahead, Baltimore faces the Chargers next week in what should be a high-stakes game. With the Ravens likely to come out angry and motivated after last week’s struggles, Flowers could be in line for another strong outing. His role remains solid, and his performance trajectory suggests he’s someone fantasy managers can trust as we head into the critical stretch of the season.

Underperformer: Amari Cooper (Buffalo Bills)

YPRR: 2.292
Result: 2 receptions, 55 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.5 (half-PPR)

Amari Cooper underperformed his stellar 2.292 YPRR this week, continuing a frustrating trend of inconsistency since being traded to the Bills. While his talent is undeniable, injuries have hampered his ability to deliver the type of production fantasy managers hoped for when he joined Buffalo’s offense.

Despite his struggles, it’s clear the Bills view him as a key piece of their passing game. Down the stretch of the NFL season, Cooper could play a pivotal role in Buffalo’s pursuit of a playoff berth. Unfortunately for fantasy managers, that might not translate into consistent fantasy output during the most critical weeks of our season. While the ceiling is still there, trusting Cooper in lineups week to week has become a risky proposition.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

Week 11 gave us plenty to analyze, from Zay Flowers’ late-game touchdown boosting his fantasy day to Amari Cooper‘s continued struggles in Buffalo. It was also great to see Nico Collins back on the field, where he immediately reminded us why he’s a fantasy star. With his return, he has reclaimed the number one spot in PRS, solidifying his status as one of the most reliable wide receivers this season. Best of luck to everyone in navigating the final stretch of the fantasy regular season—every point counts now ladies and gentlemen!