Defining success in the NBA always comes back to preseason expectations. Some teams are just trying to get better in the regular season and advance a round further in the playoffs, while others are hoping not to fall too far behind their rivals. There’s already a class of teams whose best case scenario involves maximizing their lottery balls ahead of a loaded draft class. There are only a handful of clubs who can realistically dream about winning the championship.

The NBA has crowned six different champions over the last six years. That is a historical oddity: the last time it happened was 1975-1980. With parity in full swing, there’s a real opportunity for the streak to extend another year. Of course, the defending champion Boston Celtics will have something to say about that, and still look like the title favorites entering the 2024-2025 season.

With rosters around the league seemingly settled a month out from training camp, here are the only teams in the NBA who can win the 2025 championship.

Long shots

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been knocked out in the first round of the NBA Playoffs each of the last two years as Giannis Antetokounmpo went down with injuries. It feels like it’s now or never for Milwaukee to round into a championship contender again with an aging core, and that starts with making sure Antetokounmpo is healthy and available for the most important games of the season. Last year’s Bucks were a disaster from the very start of the season, but they still won 49 games. Things should go a lot more smoothly this year with Doc Rivers getting a full season as head coach, Damian Lillard being able to train hard in the summer without fear of injury, and some solid additions to the rotation incoming, including Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince, and Delon Wright. The Bucks’ need to hope Brook Lopez can stave off age-based regression for one more year, and they need to pray Khris Middleton can rediscover something close to his championship form from 2021. Ultimately, the Bucks feel like an outsider in the league’s inner-circle title picture, but the Antetokounmpo-Lillard pairing remains tantalizing enough to give them some championship hope.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves were one of the league’s biggest revelations last year, jumping from 42 wins to 56 wins in the second season of their grand Rudy Gobert experiment. Minnesota reached the conference finals for the first time since 2004, but their five-game elimination to the Dallas Mavericks didn’t exactly inspire much confidence on the way out. The Wolves feel like a lock to win a lot of games in the regular season with a ferocious defense and tons of positional size. Their championship hopes ultimately hinge on if their halfcourt offense — which ranked No. 16 in the league last season — can show serious signs of growth. Does Anthony Edwards have another leap in him to become a top-5 player? Can Karl-Anthony Towns fortify his reputation as an elite offensive big? Will rookie Rob Dillingham be able to play high leverage minutes right away? There’s a pathway for a Wolves title mostly because their floor is so high, but too many things have to go right to have much confidence in it.

Darkhorses

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New York Knicks

The Knicks haven’t won a championship since 1973, but this season feels like their best shot of the 21st century. New York made the boldest move of the offseason by trading a ridiculous package (five first round picks!) to the Brooklyn Nets for Mikal Bridges. Bridges completes the Knicks’ dream of fully reuniting Villanova’s championship core, yes, but he’s also a tremendous on-court fit. New York went 20-3 with OG Anunoby in the lineup last season, but now they have another elite 3-and-D wing to terrorize opponents. Jalen Brunson proved he’s built for the biggest moments on the biggest stages last season, and the return of Julius Randle from injury should give New York the extra shot creation it lacked in the playoffs. The big question here is the big man room: with Isaiah Hartenstein now in Oklahoma City, New York is relying so much on injury prone center Mitchell Robinson. It feels like only a matter of time before the Knicks add another big, but this team is a real threat to come out of the East either way.

Philadelphia 76ers

The last time the Sixers won a championship was in 1983 behind Moses Malone, and the last time they even reached the conference finals was in 2001 with Allen Iverson. Joel Embiid is a legend on par with any in franchise history, but he still hasn’t had his big breakthrough in the playoffs. This could finally be the year. Philadelphia had arguably the best offseason of any team in the league by signing Paul George with cap space and bolstering the rotation with Caleb Martin, Andre Drummond, and Reggie Jackson. It’s hard to find a “big three” that fits better together than Embiid, George, and ascending guard Tyrese Maxey. Maxey can pressure the rim with elite speed, and also hit 44.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes last season. George can play on or off the ball and remains a very good defender at age-34. This ultimately comes back to Embiid, though. Something just always seems to go wrong for him in the playoffs, but he’s simply too good to never put it together for a full postseason. Embiid and George both have a reputation for shrinking in the playoffs, but it only takes one run to change that narrative. The Sixers have the talent to do it this year.

Contenders

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Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets were the favorites to win back-to-back championships for all of last season until it all came crashing down in the playoffs. Denver ran into an opponent custom built to give them trouble in the Timberwolves, and Jamal Murray never looked right after suffering a right knee strain after the All-Star break. Murray’s continued struggles in the Olympics are highly concerning for the Nuggets, as is the departure of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, arguably the team’s best three-point shooter and perimeter defender the last couple years. It sure seems like the arrow is trending down for the Nuggets thanks to cheap ownership, but it’s impossible to write them off when they still have the best player in the world in the prime of his career. Nikola Jokic creates a good shot for his team basically every time he touches the ball. Murray has all the motivation he needs to show he can still be a championship-level No. 2 option as he enters a contract year. If one or two of the young players — Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Christian Braun — take a leap, the Nuggets will be the mix again. It would be a shame if this team’s best days are already behind them.

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks weren’t satisfied with a surprising run to the NBA Finals last year. Dallas made big changes around its core pieces over the offseason, adding Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, and Quentin Grimes at the expense of Derrick Jones Jr., Josh Green, and Tim Hardaway Jr. It remains to be seen if the Mavs’ moves actually count as an upgrade, and much of that rests of the shoulders of Thompson. The Mavs certainly needed a knockdown shooter next to Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, but it’s fair to wonder if Thompson’s age-related decline defensively will create more problems than his shooting will solve. Dallas’ title chances still come back to Doncic and the idea that he’s the game’s single most terrifying matchup in the NBA Playoffs. Luka was amazing on last year’s run to the Finals without ever really playing his best basketball. That’s a scary sign for the rest of the West if he can stay healthy late in the season.

Favorites

Oklahoma City Thunder

It’s rare that a team can win 57 games and get significantly better over the offseason, but the Thunder appear to have pulled it off. OKC made the first big trade of the offseason by dealing its biggest playoff liability in Josh Giddey for arguably the league’s best perimeter defender in Alex Caruso. The Thunder then signed Isaiah Hartenstein to a big deal to address the size and rebounding problems that plagued their front court last year. OKC checks all the boxes for a championship-level team coming into the season. They have a legitimate MVP candidate in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a scheme-breaking big man in Chet Holmgren, an emerging secondary shot creator in Jalen Williams, and a killer defense built on generating turnovers. The Caruso addition doubled-down on OKC’s identity while the Hartenstein signing aims to fix last season’s biggest problems. With the core pieces of this roster still young and improving, the Thunder are the clear-cut favorites in the West and a true championship favorite.

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Boston Celtics

The Celtics ended last season leaving no doubt they were the best team in the league. Boston went 80-21 through the regular season and playoffs, which ranks as the 13th best record in league history. Somehow, the Celtics retained literally everyone from their championship rotation over the offseason, giving them a tremendous chance to be the NBA’s first back-to-back champion since Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry’s Warriors. Kristaps Porzingis is sidelined for 5-6 months after foot surgery, but Boston just coasted to a title with him already dealing with injury issues. There have been some weird vibes in the offseason for such a dominant champion — Jaylen Brown being upset for getting passed over on Team USA for teammate Derrick White, Jayson Tatum being completely out of the rotation in the Olympics — but this team is too connected on both ends for it to cause real problems. The Celtics are the team to beat entering the season, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if they end the year on top once again.