The Milwaukee Bucks’ 2024-25 season has been a roller coaster, and the ride isn’t over yet. After a dismal 2-8 start that fueled trade rumors around Giannis Antetokounmpo and raised serious doubts about Milwaukee’s future, the Bucks have surged back into relevance, riding a six-game win streak to a 10-9 record. Now, they face a pivotal moment in the Emirates NBA Cup, with everything on the line in a Group Stage finale against the Detroit Pistons.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for this early-December showdown, exactly the type of high-leverage game the NBA envisioned when creating the tournament. Here’s a breakdown of the Bucks’ scenarios heading into Tuesday night.

Bucks Clinch Group B With a Win

The simplest—and most desirable—path forward for Milwaukee is to take care of business against Detroit. A win would secure their place atop East Group B and grant them a spot in the Knockout Stage as one of the conference’s group winners.

Clinching Group B would give the Bucks a home game in the quarterfinals on December 10 or 11 against another group winner or the Wild Card team from the East.

If they advance, they’d head to Las Vegas for the Semifinals on December 14, with the Championship set for December 17. All games except the Championship count toward regular-season standings, keeping Milwaukee’s momentum intact.

Bucks Clinch Wild Card Spot by Losing by Six or Fewer Points

Losing isn’t ideal, but if Milwaukee keeps it close, they could still clinch the East’s lone Wild Card spot based on point differential. The Bucks currently boast a healthy +29 differential through their three Group Stage games.

The key wrinkle here is the result of the Knicks-Magic game, where both teams are also 3-0 in Group Play. If Orlando suffers a blowout loss of more than 37 points, Milwaukee’s margin for error increases. But relying on unlikely outside outcomes is always a dangerous game, and the Bucks would prefer to punch their ticket outright with a win.

Bucks Clinch Wild Card Spot by Losing in Overtime

An overtime loss also guarantees Milwaukee the Wild Card spot, regardless of the score. While this would salvage their tournament hopes, it’s far from an ideal outcome.

As the Wild Card, the Bucks would play a road game against a group winner— the Pistons, Hawks, or the winner of the Knicks-Magic game. Road matchups are never easy, and the Bucks would face a tougher path to the NBA Cup Semifinals in Las Vegas. Just last year, they found themselves in a similar grind when they faced the upstart Indiana Pacers five times in the regular season.

Bucks Eliminated from the NBA Cup

The worst-case scenario is a loss by seven or more points, which would almost certainly eliminate Milwaukee from the tournament. A defeat would dash their NBA Cup hopes.

Milwaukee beat Detroit 127-120 in overtime earlier this season, with Antetokounmpo exploding for 59 points in Damian Lillard’s absence. That win highlighted the Bucks’ resilience, but Detroit has also looked formidable in the tournament, going 3-0 with a +30 point differential.

Why This Game Matters

The NBA Cup has added a new layer of intrigue, giving November and early December games the kind of stakes usually reserved for March and April. For the Bucks, it’s an opportunity to continue building momentum after a rough start and test themselves in a playoff-like atmosphere.

Antetokounmpo and Lillard seem to be finding their groove, and a win against Detroit would not only keep their tournament hopes alive but also send a message to the rest of the league.

Whether they clinch Group B, scrape by as a Wild Card, or miss the cut altogether, Tuesday night’s matchup is appointment viewing. It’s rare to have so much on the line this early in the season, and the Bucks are embracing the moment. Buckle up—it’s going to be a wild ride.