4 reasons why Chiefs might lose to Texans in divisional round of NFL playoffs

The Kansas City Chiefs are among the NFL’s most accomplished teams and have a ton of postseason experience to lean on heading into their divisional-round playoff matchup against the Houston Texans on Saturday, January 18.

Though the Chiefs have proven that they can win playoff games—and Super Bowl titles—in recent seasons, their past successes hardly guarantee that Kansas City will be able to handle business against the Texans this weekend.

This week, the experts at Pro Football Network weighed in on why the Chiefs might struggle to defeat Houston in the playoffs.

Check out what PFN had to say below:

Editor’s note: This is the second in a two-part series on whether the Chiefs will beat the Texans in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. Part one focused on how Kansas City can beat Houston.

Reason No. 1

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – DECEMBER 21: C.J. Stroud #7 of the Houston Texans and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs talk after Kansas City’s 27-19 victory at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 21, 2024 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images)

“The Chiefs did not win a single first quarter in any of their losses and were outscored by an average of 3.5 points per first half. The Texans are +3.9 points per first half when C.J. Stroud starts.”

Reason No. 2

Jan 11, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) is sacked by Houston Texans defensive end Denico Autry (96) during the third quarter in an AFC wild card game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

“The Texans posted a season-best 50% non-blitzed pressure rate against the Chargers in the wild-card round, continuing a trend that is very much moving in the right direction:

Weeks 1-14: 30.8% non-blitzed pressure rate (NFL rank: 18th)
Weeks 15-WC: 37.2% non-blitzed pressure rate (NFL rank: 8th)”

Reason No. 3

Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (8) runs against Houston Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. (24) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

“The Texans have seen six of their top-7 third down games come either on the road or against a playoff team, both of which are the case in this spot and both were the case in Week 16 when these teams met in Arrowhead (Houston converted a season-high 53.8% of their third downs that afternoon).”

Reason No. 4

Dec 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is hit by Houston Texans defensive tackle Tommy Togiai (72) while throwing during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

“Chiefs finished 4.31 wins above their metrics (10.69-6.31). The next highest is the Colts +2.71. The Texans were also 2.41 wins above expected.”