Only six games are left in the NFL season, and the Divisional Playoffs are another stepping stone for the Detroit Lions. It’s been a feel-good year for the Commanders as they threw off the shackles of terrible ownership to turn things around with a rookie phenom at quarterback, but the Cinderella story ends here.

The Lions are the juggernauts of the NFC, and there are three reasons why they’ll cruise through to the NFC Championship Game.

No. 1: Ben Johnson

There’s a reason the Lions’ offensive coordinator is the most coveted prospective head coach of the cycle, and he’s been showing it all season long. Orchestrating the NFL’s most dangerous offense, Johnson was able to blend a devastating passing attack that made Jared Goff a 4,700-yard passer — with a running game where Jahmyr Gibbs was one of the league’s best running backs.

There’s no doubt that Commanders’ OC Kliff Kingsbury deserves some credit too, especially for devising an offense that allowed Jayden Daniels to feel comfortable and flourish — but the heart of Washington this year has been winning in shootouts with a defense that’s been good enough to slow opponents down.

Johnson’s offense has preyed on teams playing this way. One of the league’s most creative coordinators, not only does Johnson keep defenses off balance with his mixture of play calling, but he’ll throw in different packages all game long to stop teams from keying in on his calls. Considering this utterly befuddled Brian Flores and the Vikings in Week 18 (and he’s one of the best DCs in the NFL), it doesn’t exactly bode well for the Commanders.

No. 2: Jahmyr Gibbs

The Commanders have been fantastic at stopping the pass this season and preventing explosive plays, but their run defense is woeful. Ranked 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed, and 28th in yards-per-carry given up, it makes for fertile ground for Gibbs to feast.

Washington gave up 228 yards and 211 yards rushing to Saquon Barkley and the Eagles in two games this season. Gibbs may not be Saquon, but he’s not far too. Couple that with the brutal ability of the Detroit offensive line and it makes for a long day on defense.

All five of the Commanders’ losses this season came when the defense gave up over 300 yards and four when the defense allowed more than 100 yards rushing. Meanwhile, the Lions rushed for over 100 yards in 16 of 17 games this season.

Gibbs is a matchup nightmare at the best of times. If you don’t stop him at the line of scrimmage, he’s gone. This will force the Commanders to bring up defensive back help into the box to try and match speed with speed, which then opens up things for Goff in play action.

It’s a colossal problem for Washington, which they don’t have an answer for.

No. 3: The moment

It’s been almost 20 years since the Commanders won a playoff game. This is the first time since 2006 the team has been on the road to face a Super Bowl contender. It makes for a lot of pressure, especially with a relatively young team.

The Lions got their playoff growing pains out of the way in 2023. Now they’re the settled, prepared, and ready team. The Commanders are just getting to this point, and the pressure of a city, paired with unbelievable noise at Ford Field will make it a very intimidating atmosphere.

It’s not like these players haven’t experienced big moments or tough crowds before, but things are different in the NFL. It will be wholly understandable if Jayden Daniels falters in this environment, and if that happens, the Commanders are sunk.

This is just the beginning for Washington. If they can keep growing it’ll be their time soon — just not yet.