The confetti from the Super Bowl still hasn’t all been swept up but we’re already onto 2025 and talking fantasy football; what a time to be alive.

It’s never too early to look ahead to 2025 fantasy football drafts and the landscape in which we’ll be drafting either now in best ball or down the road for redraft leagues.

Running back might be one of the most important positions in fantasy, so it makes sense to get the lay of the land and pick out several overvalued options at the position based on average draft position (ADP).

3 Early Overvalued Running Backs

(ADP via Underdog Fantasy as of 2/10/2025)

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF): ADP 16.0 | RB7

When all is said and done for Christian McCaffrey, he’ll be remembered as one of the best fantasy producers ever. Remembering McCaffrey for what he was is completely different than what he currently is, and we need to take that into account when forecasting what his 2025 could look like. In a “what have you done for me lately” sense, McCaffrey doesn’t exactly pop off the page with tendinitis in both of his Achilles tendons and a PCL sprain in his knee. Not what you want from your consensus 1.01.

McCaffrey will be 29 once Week 1 rolls around. Since 2020, he has had at least one leg or thigh injury that has caused him to miss at least one game in every season but one (2022). With a lot of tread on his tires from 1,871 career touches in his eight seasons, those touches could be taking their toll on the talented runner. It wasn’t long ago in 2023 when McCaffrey put up over 2,000 total yards en route to an RB1 finish, but running backs rarely age gracefully and gradually.

With a mid-second-round ADP on Underdog Fantasy currently in their early contests, that’s an astronomical price to pay for somebody who could only get on the field for four games last season and was nowhere near the McCaffrey we’ve been accustomed to. I would want a much better price to take the chance on him. If McCaffrey’s price in drafts remains this lofty, I’ll pass.

Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND): ADP 21.1 | RB8

Jonathan Taylor had a very successful season given the state of the team, especially at the quarterback position. Taylor was the constant in the Colts’ offense as he rushed for over 1,400 yards and was a league-winner with four straight 100-yard games plus five touchdowns in Weeks 16 and 17 to end the fantasy campaign. While the revolving door of Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco as signal-callers was turbulent enough for fantasy managers, it could get worse in 2025.

Are the Colts sold on Richardson as their quarterback going forward? Do they get a free-agent quarterback and pay him? Depending on what they do this offseason, it will no doubt impact the stock of Taylor, who will enter his age-26 season. While Taylor was the overall RB1 in 2021, he is not currently at that level. He’s seen decreased utilization in the receiving game with a career-low 18 receptions in 2024. Despite the 1,431 yards rushing and 12 total touchdowns, Taylor was merely the RB12. The power of having a healthy receiving role is what separates great fantasy backs from merely good ones.

Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Points Per Game

2020: RB8
2021: RB1
2022: RB17 (6 games missed to injury)
2023: RB12 (7 games missed)
2024: RB7 (3 games missed)

He’s 26 years old with over 2,100 carries in college and the NFL

Why is he the Dynasty RB7 on @KeepTradeCut ?! SELL

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) February 3, 2025

Taylor is one of the better runners in the league, but at an RB8 price tag heading into 2025, we want more production from him to justify a selection in the second round of early best ball drafts. The price is a bit too high for a one-dimensional fantasy running back, no matter how good Taylor is at running the ball.

Josh Jacobs (RB – GB): ADP 24.0 | RB9

As it turns out, the three running backs I’m writing about are all in a row in the second round in early best ball drafts. With the final back, there may not have been a hotter second-half running back in fantasy football than Josh Jacobs. With at least one touchdown in his final eight games of the season, the Packers rode Jacobs as the only consistent chain-mover on offense. There were a lot of factors that led to Jacobs being a massive workhorse, but those factors could normalize in 2025.

With Day 2 pick MarShawn Lloyd banged up and A.J. Dillon hitting injured reserve (IR) before Week 1, Jacobs was the workhorse from the start. Jordan Love got banged up in the beginning part of the season, so head coach Matt LaFleur had to get creative and run their offense almost solely through the run to protect backup quarterback Malik Willis. Love left the game again in their Week 8 game in Jacksonville. After a loss to the Lions in Week 9, the Packers stormed out of their Week 10 bye with a renewed offensive philosophy: Run the ball at all costs.

The Packers ended 2024 with the third-lowest pass rate over expected. With a healthy Love and calls from Jacobs himself to get a No. 1 WR in the room, the Packers’ play-calling could get more balanced. While it’s not a question that Jacobs will be the workhorse for the Packers, touchdown regression is not on Jacobs’ side heading into 2025. There are much better values on the board than Jacobs for next season.

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