The NFL is approaching the halfway point of the season, and the Super Bowl picture is starting to materialize.

Big surprise: the Kansas City Chiefs are again very good, still standing as the league’s lone undefeated team. Their biggest challengers look like the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills, teams helmed by the two best QBs on Earth not named Patrick Mahomes. Looking for a sleeper in the AFC? The Houston Texans feel like a solid bet at 5-2 as they head into a matchup with the Colts.

The NFC looks a lot more wide open. The reigning conference champion 49ers have been crushed by injuries. The NFC North is loaded, and they’re all set to beat up on each other in the second half of the season. Is anyone in the NFC East really that good?

With Week 8 approaching, here are three upset picks we like.

Arizona Cardinals over Miami Dolphins over (+4)

Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return for Miami Dolphins this week coming off another terrifying concussion. The Dolphins’ offense looked awful with Tua on the sidelines, but this team still has some of the best weapons in football when they don’t have Tyler Huntley or Tim Boyle throwing the ball. Teams have been throwing on Arizona all season, so it’s easy to see how Miami is the favorite here. Still, it doesn’t quite pass the smell test for me. The Cardinals are coming off an impressive defensive showing against the Los Angeles Chargers a week ago, when they held them without a touchdown. Arizona is running the ball well behind James Conner. The passing attack hasn’t been as good as advertised, but Trey McBride is on a hot streak, and rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is due for a breakout game. The Cards are hanging tough in the AFC West race despite an uneven start to the season, and I think they are the more talented team even on the road. Let’s just hope Tagovailoa stays healthy. I see the Cardinals defense doing enough to hold Miami in check, and Kyler Murray coming through with a signature performance in the win.

— Ricky O’Donnell

New England Patriots over New York Jets (+6.5)

Everything is bad in New England right now.

The Patriots are coming off a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, head coach Jerod Mayo is under scrutiny for comments he made about the team’s defense — sparking a harsh rebuke from former head coach Bill Belichick, and it is touched off a discussion about Mayo’s long-term prospects in New England. While Mayo’s comments have received a … mixed reception inside the New England locker room.

Meanwhile the Jets are on the cusp of figuring everything out, at least according to Aaron Rodgers.

This feels like a classic “us against the world” moment for the Patriots players. Either they come out and prove Mayo wrong, or they prove him right.

I’m betting they prove him wrong.

— Mark Schofield

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Atlanta Falcons (+3)

Yes, the Buccaneers are on a short week and they’ll be without two of the league’s best receivers on Sunday — Mike Evans is out for a few weeks with a hamstring injury, and Chris Godwin is out for the season after suffering a gruesome ankle injury on Monday Night Football against the Ravens.

And yes, I did pick the Falcons to win, even though as a longtime Falcons fan and someone who is a little stitious I try to avoid that at all costs. But the Falcons looked BAD last week against the Seahawks. They haven’t unlocked anything resembling a solution to their lackluster pass rush. Kirk Cousins could either ball out and make it an easy day for Atlanta, or he could play like he’s never seen a football before. And the Falcons are currently undefeated in the NFC South, but it’s incredibly difficult to beat a team once, much less twice in three weeks.

So while my official, on-the-record pick is Atlanta, from a Falcons fan perspective, the least surprising thing that could happen on Sunday is Atlanta blowing it.

— Jeanna Kelley