Welcome to Kentucky Derby Prospect Profiles, where we take a look each week at a recent winner on the Road to the Derby schedule with stakes that offer qualifying points for the 1 ¼-mile classic race May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs.

This week, we take a closer look at Magnitude, the winner by 9 ¾ lengths of the $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes Feb. 15 at Fair Grounds. The Not This Time colt earned 50 points toward qualifying for the 2025 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve. He ranks second on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 55 points in total and very likely has a starting spot secured for the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

Racing Résumé: One of the biggest challenges in Kentucky Derby analysis is evaluating true breakout performances. Last year, Mystik Dan was an example of a 3-year-old who ran a blindingly fast race in the Southwest Stakes. Even though he ran third in the Arkansas Derby in his final prep, Mystik Dan turned out to be the real deal on Kentucky Derby day.

So, what do we make of Magnitude’s runaway victory in the Risen Star Stakes, defeating highly regarded East Avenue and turning away a quality 3-year-old Built near the top of the stretch in a tour de force at 43.20-1 odds Fair Grounds?

Magnitude had two wins in six previous races, but he had shown little against stakes opposition. He was beaten by 12 lengths by Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois Stakes, lost by 6 ¾ lengths to Built in the Gun Runner Stakes, and ran sixth while beaten by 2 ¾ lengths by Disco Time on a sloppy track in the Lecomte Stakes.

Jockey Ben Curtis was aggressive early in the Risen Star from the outside post position in a 12-horse field and sent Magnitude to the front. He set a strong pace through a half-mile in :46.92 and had enough stamina in the stretch to cover the final furlong in :12.72, a quality time given the pace and 1 1/8-mile distance. Magnitude’s Risen Star win essentially cemented his spot in the Kentucky Derby field provided things go well over the next 11 weeks.

Speed Figures: The Risen Star was a fast race, very fast. Magnitude earned a 108 Beyer Speed Figure, 28 points better than his previous top — a massive jump — and best in the 3-year-old male division at any distance. Likewise, his Equibase Speed Figure was a 106, a 17-point improvement from his previous best. Did a lightbulb go on for this colt? Can he duplicate that effort in his next start? How much rest would he need to do so after such a monster race? Did he peak too soon? These are all fair questions.

Running Style: Two of Magnitude’s three wins have come when leading from start to finish and he’s established himself as a colt with early speed (although a poor start took him out of his comfort zone in the Lecomte). Based on results, Magnitude looks like a 3-year-old who gets very brave when he sets the pace and I would expect his connections to utilize the same tactics after they were so effective at 1 1/8 miles.

Pedigree Notes: Magnitude is from the fifth crop of Not This Time, who showed promise as a graded stakes-winning 2-year-old when second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before his career was cut short by injury. He’s off to a very good start as a stallion with 2022 champion 3-year-old male Epicenter, 2023 champion turf male Up to the Mark, elite sprinter Cogburn, and long-distance specialist Next showing his versatility as a sire.

Magnitude’s dam (mother), Rockadelic, by champion Bernardini, was unplaced in one start, but grandam (maternal grandmother) Octave was a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/8 miles and 1 ¼ miles.

Derby Potential: Magnitude’s Risen Star victory was a massive upset and also a monster race, serving as a reminder why the Kentucky Derby trail is so much fun. 

Trainer Steve Asmussen is the winningest trainer in the sport’s history, a two-time Eclipse Award winner, and a Hall of Famer. Asmussen has two Preakness wins to his credit and one Belmont Stakes victory and has finished second three times in the Kentucky Derby, so Magnitude is in capable hands. Asmussen told Daily Racing Form that Magnitude came out of the race in great shape, cleaned his feed tub after the race, and probably will be pointed to the Louisiana Derby March 22. He does have a very strong foundation compared with many of his peers with seven starts to date, but it will be difficult to duplicate his Risen Star performance in five weeks in the Louisiana Derby. If he does, Magnitude will be among the favorites for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.