The PGA Tour heads to California this week to play the 2025 American Express.

The tournament is played at three different courses: PGA West Pete Dye Stadium Course, PGA West Nicklaus Course and La Quinta Country Club.

Each golfer will play one round on each course, then those making the 54-hole cut will play one more round on the Pete Dye Stadium Course. The Stadium Course is a 7,113-yard par-72 that was designed by Dye in 1986, the Nicklaus Course is a par-72 measuring 7,159 yards and La Quinta Country Club is a par-72 measuring 7,060 yards. All of the courses are short for par-72s and typically play easy, leading to very low winning scores.

The American Express field is a full-field event with 156 golfers. Some notable entrants include Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Tom Kim, Sungjae Im and Tony Finau. Scottie Scheffler was planning to make the trip but is taking more time to rest his injured hand. Xander Schauffele also withdrew Monday.

Let’s take a look at several metrics for PGA West to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds:

The American Express is another tournament where distance off the tee is not going to be a major factor. With none of the three courses being long, strong iron players tend to do very well at PGA West.

Strokes-gained approach over past 24 rounds:

1. Lucas Glover (+1.62)
2. Kurt Kitayama (+1.36)
3. Matteo Manassero (+1.32) 
4. Tom Kim (+1.06)
5. Michael Kim (+0.94)

With two rounds on the Stadium Course, players will need to be able to put on Poa to win this week. As Jon Rahm once so eloquently said, the event can turn into a “Piece of s–t f—–g setup, putting-contest week.”

Strokes-gained putting on Poa trivialis over past 30 rounds:

1. Sam Ryder (+1.00) 
2. Taylor Montgomery (+0.97)
3. Ben Griffin (+0.96)
4. Denny McCarthy (+0.91)
5. Matt Kuchar (+0.89) 

PGA West is a desert course. This statistic will highlight players who have done well on other desert tracks. 

Strokes-gained total in the desert over past 24 rounds (minimum 8 rounds):

1. Justin Thomas (+17.5)
2. Patrick Cantlay (+12.8)
3. Sam Burns (+12.0)
4. Sungjae Im (+11.3)
5. J.T. Poston (+11.1)

There are very few three-putts in this event. Golfers will need to ball strike their way to low scores with smaller greens than average on Tour.

Strokes-gained ball striking over past 24 rounds:

1. Kurt Kitayama (+1.98)
2. Lucas Glover (+1.83)
3. Jhonnatan Vegas (+1.34)
4. Lee Hodges (+1.32) 
5. Michael Kim (+1.26) 

With two of four rounds on the Pete Dye-designed PGA West Stadium Course, it will be important to target players who excel on Dye tracks. Golfers with good history at these styles of course tend to pop up on leaderboards of Dye designs on a regular basis.

Strokes-gained total: Pete Dye designs over past 30 rounds:

1. Davis Thompson (+2.33)
2. Adam Hadwin (+2.06)
3. Sungjae Im (+2.06)
4. Sam Burns (+1.99) 
5. Ben Griffin (+1.97) 

New this year, I am going to generate a “mini model” of the best players at each of the comparable courses. For the American Express, I am using TPC Sawgrass, Torrey Pines (North), TPC Scottsdale, TPC Summerlin, Silverado, TPC River Highlands and TPC Twin Cities. 

Comparable course player rankings:

1. Doug Ghim
2. Patrick Fishburn
3. Justin Thomas
4. Tony Finau
5. Tom Kim
6. Brian Harman
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Maverick McNealy
9. Wyndham Clark
10. Sungjae Im

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of strokes-gained approach (25%), strokes-gained putting on Poa (15%), strokes-gained ball striking (20%), strokes-gained desert (12%), strokes-gained on Pete Dye designs (14%) and comparable course player rankings (14%). 

1. Justin Thomas
2. Tom Kim
3. Nick Taylor
4. Sam Burns
5. Ben Griffin
6. Matt Kuchar
7. Daniel Berger
8. Tony Finau
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Tom Hoge

Last week’s picks results for the Sony Open:

Tom Kim (20-1): T65
Russell Henley (22-1): T10
Luke Clanton (40-1): MC
Daniel Berger (75-1): MC
Frankie Capan III (250-1): T45
Aldrich Potgieter (250-1): MC

Davis Thompson +4000 (DraftKings)

Davis Thompson took a giant step forward in his PGA Tour career last season when he won the John Deere Classic. The 25-year-old is a strong candidate to take yet another step forward in 2025, and the American Express is the type of event that suits his skillset.

Last week, Thompson missed the cut at the Sony Open. While that may worry some, history tells us that players who win the American Express typically play in one or both of the Hawaii tournaments, however, success at those tournaments is not a prerequisite.

Thompson has excelled at this tournament throughout the early part of his career. He finished second in 2022 and 21st in 2023. He is a player who can take advantage of shorter courses with easy scoring conditions. He also has some success in the desert and ranks seventh in strokes-gained total in that category. In the fall he finished T5 at TPC Summerlin, which is another shorter and easier desert track.

If Thompson had started off his season strong in Hawaii, I believe we’d be getting a difficult number to swallow on him this week. With the slow start, it feels as if we are getting a solid “buy low” price this week on a really good golfer.

Cam Young +4500 (DraftKings)

Cam Young has disappointed plenty of golf fans by failing to earn a victory thus far in his career, but he’s certainly given plenty of reasons why it’s too early to give up on that hope just yet.

Young fits the mold of players who’ve had the opportunity to shake the rust off in Hawaii, where he finished T8 at the Sentry. In 2023, he finished T26 at the American Express but gained over eight strokes on approach for the week.

The 27-year-old has shown he can play well at a Pete Dye setup. He shot a 59 at the Travelers in Round 3 last year and finished T9. He also has a Dell Match Play runner-up, which was held at Austin Country Club, another Pete Dye track.

I’ll take my chances with Young at a solid number this week.

Brian Harman +5000 (DraftKings)

This spot was originally meant for Denny McCarthy, but with his withdrawal I replaced him with Brian Harman.

Harman is the type of player who always shows up to “his” events, and I’d certainly put the American Express into that category. In his last eight trips to the course, he’s only finished outside of the top 21 once. He also has a T3 in 2017, T8 in 2021 and T3 in 2022.

Harman is also a Pete Dye specialist. In his past 30 rounds, he ranks third in strokes-gained total on Dye tracks and sixth in my comparable course rankings. Last week, the former British Open champion finished 21st and gained strokes on the field in every major stat category.

Harman is a major champion but only has two other PGA Tour wins under his belt thus far. A shorter setup at this week’s American Express will be a good opportunity for him to add to that total.

Sepp Straka+7000 (DraftKings)

Sepp Straka has had a solid start to his 2025 campaign, finishing T15 at the Sentry and T30 at the Sony Open. Even more encouraging than his results has been the way Straka has hit his irons in those two starts. He’s gained more than four strokes on approach in the first two events of the season.

Straka has made four starts at the American Express. Three of the starts were forgettable but he finished T4 here in 2020. The former European Ryder Cupper should be a strong fit for the courses utilized this week. He hits a high percentage of fairways and seems to be dialed in with his irons in the early going.

In terms of the class of player and his pedigree, this number feels a bit too big for Sepp.

Michael Thorbjornsen +8000 (DraftKings)

Last week, Michael Thorbjornsen withdrew from the Sony Open. The 23-year-old cited an illness as his reason for withdrawal rather than an injury, so I think he’s worth another shot this week in California.

Thorbjornsen, having played at Stanford, is familiar with golf on the west coast. He rose to the top of the PGA Tour U standings in 2024 based on his strong play and should feel right at home at the American Express.

In addition to familiarity with the region, “Thor” has also shown a fondness for Pete Dye designs. He finished fourth at TPC River Highlands in 2022 and has played well on shorter tracks, notching top-five finishes at both the RSM Classic and John Deere Classic in 2024.

Last year, we saw a young rising star win the American Express. If Thorbjornsen puts it all together this week, he could follow that result.

Cameron Davis +8000 (DraftKings)

Cameron Davis started off his season strong with a T13 at the Sentry. That success made him a popular pick at last week’s Sony, but the 29-year-old missed the cut. With Sony results not being a major factor for past American Express winners, this seems like a perfect spot to take what I’ve dubbed a “missed cut discount” on Davis.

Davis finished third at this event in 2021 and despite his two missed cuts since, has typically hit the ball very well at the Stadium Course. Last season, he gained 2.64 strokes on approach at his one round there but struggled to go low enough at La Quinta and the Nicklaus Course and went home at 10 under, two shots off the cutline.

The Australian has shown he’s the type of player who can keep pace in a lower-scoring affair as both his PGA Tour wins have come at scores of 18 under. In 2023, Davis played some West Coast events very well, finishing third at the Fortinet and T7 at the Shriners.

Cameron Davis is yet another Pete Dye specialist who should be able to repeat some past success at the American Express.

Michael Kim +12000 (DraftKings)

I have long felt the American Express would be an ideal spot for Michael Kim to notch his first win since the 2018 John Deere Classic. The now 31-year-old had a strong fall, and although he’s yet to make his season debut, he can follow in Nick Dunlap’s footsteps as a player to win the American Express in their first start of the season.

In Kim’s most recent four starts, he finished 11th or better in three of them. Last season, he finished T6 at the American Express and shot three rounds of 65 or better. Having played his college golf at Cal, Kim should be extremely comfortable in the region.

Kim gains most of his strokes on the field on short courses with very easy scoring conditions. The former Haskins and Nicklaus award winner will seek a return to glory at this week’s American Express.

Matthias Schmid +12000 (DraftKings)

Longshots have often prevailed at the American Express, and Matthias Schmid looks to be a candidate to join the club of winners longer than 100-1 to prevail at PGA West.

Schmid had a rough start to his 2025 campaign, missing the cut at last week’s Sony Open. However, the fact that he teed it up at Waialae is a positive for his chances this week if history is any indication.

Schmid has been a strong Pete Dye player throughout his few years on the PGA Tour. He ranks 14th in the field in strokes-gained total on said courses but has some high finishes. The German finished T6 here in 2023 and missed the cut in 2024, however, he did gain 2.28 strokes on approach in his one round at the Stadium Course. In the fall, he was fifth at the Black Desert Championship and T3 at the Shriners, which are also easy events played on the West Coast.

Birdie machines tend to play well at the American Express, and Schmid fits the profile as a player who can score and keep his foot on the gas.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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