Josh Allen returns from bye against a wounded 49ers team, Jalen Hurts eyes up a Ravens smash spot, and Matthew Stafford tries to keep the QB1 train rolling in New Orleans.

Other positions: Running Back | Receiver | Tight End/Kickers/Defense

Week 13 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Yes, we hate the matchup for Joe Burrow. On the other hand, the Steelers have been tested by surprisingly few traditional pocket passers this season, while the Bengals are playing for their playoff lives with a full deck at wideout. Bottom line: The specific rank doesn’t really matter, you’re not benching Burrow. … Justin Herbert couldn’t cash in his Week 12 Ravens smash spot, though unspeakable Quentin Johnston drops had something to do with it. Now Herbert is making a dreaded west-to-east holiday week road trip. The good news is, the Falcons’ pass defense has proven to be a paper tiger. With J.K. Dobbins (knee) on the shelf, Herbert’s arm will be relied on more than ever. … Still somehow the QB10 by average fantasy points, Patrick Mahomes is the QB5-6 depending on your games played slider over the past five weeks. He’s predictably regressing to the touchdown mean, though he remains shorter than usual on yardage. Even in that department, Mahomes has cleared 260 in 3-of-4 appearances. The Raiders are a gorgeous short-week matchup.

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Week 12 was an overdue Jayden Daniels spiked week: That doesn’t happen without the Cowboys quiet quitting on an 86-yard, pseudo Hail Mary to Terry McLaurin. The Titans are a somewhat inscrutable Week 13 matchup. They don’t allow much raw passing production, but their rate stats are terrible. Daniels is another week healthier and at home. You ultimately can’t consider benching him for the second-to-last week of the fantasy regular season. … Baker Mayfield is the QB4 by average points on the season. It’s true he’s struggling to crack the top 20 over the past five weeks, but he’s had Mike Evans for only one of those starts. With Evans re-proving his health in Week 12, I’ll ride with Mayfield against a Panthers defense continuing to bleed aerial production. … Matthew Stafford has produced multiple touchdowns in 4-of-5 starts since Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp’s returns. The Saints have become a track meet matchup since waving goodbye to coach Dennis Allen and No. 1 corner Marshon Lattimore. You never really go to Stafford for ceiling, but it’s hard to argue with the low-end QB1 floor.

Jared Goff is averaging 22.1 fantasy points at home compared to 16.9 on the road. 22.1 makes him the QB7 on the year. 16.9? QB30, give or take a few spots. The Bears are not a glittering matchup, but the Lions’ Dome Death Star should produce one way or another. … Tua Tagovailoa has heated all the way up despite a distinct lack of big plays. Can he successfully dink and dunk against a Packers team that plays strong pass defense and tends to control the pace of play with keep-away offense? It helps that Jaire Alexander remains sidelined with his knee injury. Tua’s floor is high enough to keep him on the QB1 borderline. … Kyler Murray hasn’t scored more than two touchdowns since Week 2. His floor hasn’t been looking too hot of late, either. Now barely cracking the top 12 by average points on the season, there’s not a ton to like about his Vikings matchup other than the sheer amount of yardage allowed by the Purple People Eaters. That’s a function of foes typically playing from behind. The Cardinals are forecast to be doing so on the road. To his credit, Murray has also handled pressure well this season.

Facing Murray will be Sam Darnold, who keeps getting home on the QB1/2 borderline by virtue of his elite supporting cast and two-touchdown outings. That formula is definitely doable vs. a good but not great Cardinals pass D. … Bo Nix has been one of the hottest passers in football, but it’s come at the expense of his rushing. He has six carries for five scoreless yards over the past three weeks. If you pair that with his mediocre supporting cast and a rested Browns defense coming off its “mini bye,” you get a signal caller who is more QB2 than QB1 with all 32 teams active for Week 13. … If Brock Purdy (shoulder) plays, it will likely be at considerably less than full health for one of the longest road trips an NFL team can make against a strong Bills pass defense. Working in his fantasy favor is a touchdown spread in the Bills’ favor, though that could create a situation where a compromised Purdy is constantly positioned for sacks and turnovers. He’s not worth a QB1 bet in this hour of discontent. … Anthony Richardson was not good in Week 12 and will be missing Josh Downs. He’s also a dual-threat facing one of the league’s worst defenses. You take your streamer chancers.

Jordan Love is going to go off at some point, but the Dolphins are a hopeless run funnel, while the Packers continue to get away with limited pass-game volume. It’s also a shorter Packers deck with Romeo Doubs (concussion) on the sideline. I don’t mind if your gut says to get Love in there. He always has the upside. I’m just placing other bets. … Russell Wilson has one of the best matchups a quarterback can get in the Bengals. He also has one of the worst skill corps a quarterback can get, limiting his upside even for potential smash spots. There are too many other places fantasy managers can look for upside. … We would like to say that includes C.J. Stroud, though “upside” may no longer be a feature of this Texans offense. We are going to find out against a Jaguars defense that exits its Week 12 bye still permitting the most quarterback fantasy points. I still think this Texans offense is too broken to consider Stroud a QB1. … Caleb Williams is a massive road ‘dog against an elite defense. He’s kept in the low-end QB2 range by the Lions’ banged up secondary.

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