The final event of the 2024 FedEx Cup Fall has arrived. The PGA Tour heads just south of Augusta for the RSM Classic at Sea Island Golf Club (Seaside and Plantation courses) in St. Simons Island, Ga.

Golfers making the cut will play three rounds on the Seaside course and one round on the Plantation course.

The Seaside course is a par-70 layout measuring 7,005 yards, and the Plantation course is a par-72 setup coming in at 7,062 yards. The Seaside course, which was redesigned by Tom Fazio, plays more like a coastal links course, while the Plantation course is similar to a tree-lined parkland course. Both feature Bermudagrass greens and will be very scorable. The past seven winners of the event have finished between 19 and 29 under.

Some notable players in the field include Ludvig Aberg, Brian Harman, Si Woo Kim, Davis Thompson and Matt Wallace.

Let’s take a look at several metrics for Sea Island Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category.

Strokes-gained approach

The greens at Seaside are big, so it will be important to put approach shots close to avoid having to make difficult two-putt par saves. In what should be a birdiefest, golfers will need to stick their approach shots to contend.

Total strokes-gained approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Gary Woodland (+1.06)
2. Lucas Glover (+1.05)
3. Luke Clanton (+0.97)
4. Austin Smotherman (+0.88)
5. Doug Ghim (+0.79)

Good drives percentage

Length really isn’t a factor at either course. Looking at the past winners at Sea Island, they’re all accurate golfers off the tee who know how to find the fairway.

Total good drive percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Daniel Berger (90.8%)
2. Chez Reavie (90.2%)
3. Matt Nesmith (89.6%)
4. Greyson Sigg (89.6%)
5. Rico Hoey (89.5%)

Strokes-gained putting on Bermudagrass

This tournament could become a putting contest if the winds aren’t strong this week. Historically, the winners of the RSM Classic are great Bermudagrass putters.

Total strokes-gained putting on Bermudagrass in past 24 rounds:

1. Taylor Montgomery (+0.94)
2. Jacob Bridgeman (+0.76) 
3. David Skinns (+0.75)
4. Harris English (+0.75) 
5. Denny McCarthy (+0.73)

Birdie-or-better percentage

With birdies (and potentially some eagles) likely to come in abundance, pars aren’t going to cut it at Sea Island. I anticipate the winning score to be close to 20 under, so targeting golfers who go low is the right strategy here.

Birdie or Better Percentage over past 24 rounds:

1. Jacob Bridgeman (28.9%)
2. Joe Highsmith (28.9%)
3. Sam Stevens (28.9)
4. Luke Clanton (28.9%)
5. Justin Lower (+28.2%)

Strokes-gained total on short or very short courses

Both the Seaside and Plantation courses are short by PGA Tour standards. This tournament is typically won by players who thrive on these types of tracks.

Total strokes gained in category in past 30 rounds:

1. Ludvig Aberg (+1.82)
2. Luke Clanton (+1.73)
3. Austin Eckroat (+1.31)
4. Keith Mitchell (+1.27)
5. Mackenzie Hughes (+1.19)

Course history

This stat will tell us which players have had the most success on a per round basis at the Seaside Course. 

Course history over past 30 rounds (minimum 8 rounds):

1. Taylor Montgomery (+1.89)
2. Eric Cole (+1.78)
3. Webb Simpson (+1.43)
4. Ben Griffin (+1.32)
5. Will Gordon (+1.28)

Statistical model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of strokes-gained approach (25%); good-drive percentage (21%); strokes-gained putting Bermudagrass (15%); birdie-or-better percentage (15%); strokes-gained total on short courses (12%) and course history (12%). 

1. Ben Griffin
2. Matthew Nesmith
3. J.J. Spaun
4. Andrew Putnam
5. Brian Harman
6. Matt Kuchar
7. Doug Ghim
8. Seamus Power
9. Michael Kim
10. Denny McCarthy

Si Woo Kim+2800 (DraftKings)

SI Woo Kim hasn’t been playing a whole lot this fall, but when he has played, he’s played well. Kim was one of the best International players on the Presidents Cup team, going 2–2 on the week. He then teed it up in Japan at the Zozo Championship, finishing T6. For the week, he gained 3.48 strokes on approach, which ranked 11th in the field.

Kim’s history at Sea Island isn’t incredibly impressive, but it’s in line with the course history he’s had at events he’s won prior to winning them. More importantly, the course fits what Kim does best and is very similar to the events on Tour where he’s had the most success. The South Korean has won the Sony Open and the Wyndham Championship and has a second-place finish at the RBC Heritage. He’s also won the American Express, and although that’s out west, it’s a low-scoring affair that utilizes multiple courses for the event.

What’s most appealing about Kim is the win equity he carries. There are plenty of players who can play well but are accompanied by questions as to what they’ll do if they find themselves in contention. Kim has shown multiple times that when he’s in the mix, he’s extremely tough to beat. He has four PGA Tour wins between 2016 and 2024 and is yet to win one this season.

Over his last six months, Kim has gained strokes putting on the field when on Bermudagrass, which is a good sign for his chances to go low. He’s a streaky putter, but when he’s on he has the ability to spike, which is why he’s regularly found himself in the winner’s circle.

In terms of his odds, Kim may just be underrated this week and should be one of the players to beat.

Ben Griffin +3500 (FanDuel)

Ben Griffin has been a staple on the leaderboard during the 2024 FedEx Cup Fall. The 28-year-old has finished in the top 25 in four of his past five events including his best finish of the fall (8th) last week in Bermuda.

Griffin is certainly finding his rhythm in the fall series and feels as if his form is on the verge on reaching its crescendo at the RSM Classic. Griffin once told me this was one of his favorite Tour stops and looking at his results, I can see why. He finished T29 here two seasons ago and T8 last year. This is the type of short, coastal, Bermuda track that he has thrived on over the past three seasons on Tour.

Griffin played his collegiate golf at North Carolina and currently lives in St. Simons Island, Ga., so he certainly has the ties to the area that I’m looking for. Over his past 30 rounds, he ranks 4th in strokes-gained total on short or very short courses and 15th in birdie-or-better percentage.

Griffin in still winless in his career but will have a great chance to change that this week in Georgia.

Harris English +3500 (DraftKings)

Former Georgia Bulldogs have been a prevailing theme at the RSM Classic and Harris English is a veteran who fits the bill. English was born in Georgia and currently lives in Sea Island.

The four-time PGA Tour winner is a perfect fit here. His lack of distance off the tee won’t hurt him much this week and he loves putting on Bermudagrass in this region of the country. English has six top-30 finishes in this event, with his best coming in 2021 (T6). He’s finished in the top 15 in his past three starts this fall, including a T6 at the Black Desert Championship and T9 at the Shriners Children’s Open.

When Harris gets it going with the putter, he can go extremely low. Of his four wins, two have been at 20 under or better. The 35-year-old is another player who carries win equity in a field full of players who haven’t yet proved themselves on Tour.

Greyson Sigg +8000 (DraftKings)

Greyson Sigg has been remarkably consistent this fall. The former Georgia Bulldog has finished in the top 25 in four of his five starts since September.

Last week, Sigg finished T9 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Although the event did not have Shotlink data, there are some traditional stats available. For the week, Sigg ranked first in the field in greens in regulation. He also ranked 17th in driving accuracy.

We’ve seen players with local ties to the area win or contend in the RSM Classic on several occasions (Kisner, Howell III, Harman, Kirk). Sigg was born in Augusta, Ga., and attended the University of Georgia. He also currently lives in St. Simons Island.

Sigg has finished in the top 15 of the past two editions of the RSM Classic, with his best finish (T8) coming in last year’s edition of the tournament. This number feels too high for a player in his form with his course history.

Alex Smalley +11000 (DraftKings)

In 2022, Alex Smalley was within two shots of the lead at the RSM Classic going into Sunday. He shot a 67, which wasn’t enough to get the win, but the T5 finish displayed how well he fits the course when in form.

Smalley comes into the event playing relatively well. He’s made the cut in five consecutive starts and finished T29 at last week’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

In his past 24 rounds, the Duke product ranks 7th in good drive percentage. He isn’t one of the longest hitters on Tour but is a solid driver of the ball who can compete on courses like Sea Island.

Smalley currently sits at 128th in the FedEx Cup rankings. This will be his last chance to finish in the top 125 to secure his PGA Tour card for the 2025 season. Motivation will certainly be a factor this week for the 29-year-old.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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