It’s crunch time in the NFL. 

With just two weeks left to play in the 2024 regular season, there are still five playoff spots up for grabs and plenty of teams around the NFL will be hoping that Santa delivers them one of those playoff spots this week. 

At this point, the Commanders, Chargers and Broncos all have the same playoff-clinching scenario for Week 17: If they win, they’ll clinch a playoff berth. 

So will all three of those teams make it? Let’s get to our projections and find out.  

These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.  

Actually, before we get to the projections, let’s take a quick look at the spots that have already been clinched: 

AFC
Clinched division and playoff spot: Chiefs, Bills, Texans
Clinched playoff spot: Steelers, Ravens

NFC
Clinched playoff spot: Lions, Eagles, Vikings, Packers

Although three of the four divisions have been clinched in the AFC, every division is still up for grabs in the NFC. 

With that in mind, let’s get to the projections heading into Week 17.

AFC playoff projection

Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Dolphins (8.6%), Bengals (6.7%), Colts (5.8%), Titans (Eliminated), Browns (Eliminated), Jets (Eliminated), Jaguars (Eliminated), Patriots (Eliminated), Raiders (Eliminated)

AFC wild-card bracket projection

(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Chargers at (3) Ravens
(5) Steelers at (4) Texans

Bye: (1) Chiefs

NFC playoff projection

Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Falcons (47.1%), Seahawks (12.7%), Cardinals (Eliminated), Cowboys (Eliminated), 49ers (Eliminated), Saints (Eliminated), Panthers (Eliminated), Bears (Eliminated), Giants (Eliminated)

NFC wild-card bracket projection

(7) Commanders at (2) Eagles
(6) Packers at (3) Rams
(5) Vikings at (4) Buccaneers

Bye: (1) Lions