2024 CFP semifinal picks, predictions: Fade Notre Dame, back Buckeyes

Now that we are down to the final few games in the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff, things are going to get even more interesting.

Will Notre Dame live up to the hype and silence the doubters two games in a row? Are the Buckeyes mortal, or are they as unstoppable as they’ve looked recently?

Keep reading to see how I’m wagering on the semifinal matchups.

(All times ET)

THURSDAY, JAN. 9

No.7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

These teams are very much alike when it comes to personnel and their potential paths to victory. They both want to control the line of scrimmage, run the ball and limit situations where they must pass so that they can avoid quarterback mistakes and take care of the football.

Notre Dame is second in the country in yards per rush, with quarterback Riley Leonard being a huge asset in that part of the game plan. Penn State ranks 17th in yards per carry with its dual running back system. However, Notre Dame’s running back Jeremiyah Love is dealing with a lower leg injury.

Yes, his coach said he’s playing, but how effective will he be?

In the Irish’s first two playoff contests, their run game was not as effective with Love’s injury. Against Indiana, they ran for 198 yards on 35 carries, but 98 of those came on a single play. So that’s 34 carries for 100 yards on the rest of the rush attempts. Against Georgia, they rushed for 154 yards on 37 carries and their primary backs had 16 carries for 56 yards.

In short, when facing better competition in the last two weeks, we have not seen their rushing attack resemble the second-best unit in the game.

Penn State’s run game has dominated this postseason, while admittedly facing worse run defenses. However, State rushed for nearly 300 yards against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, and with their dual-threat running back rotation, the Nittany Lions are healthy and can continue throwing free rushers at Notre Dame.

Both offenses attempt to operate without making their quarterback pass the ball in must-throw situations. But here’s a concern I have with Notre Dame: If its rushing attack isn’t on its usual pace, how do the Irish generate offense without an explosive passing game?

CFP Semifinal Super Six: Ohio State vs. Texas, Penn State vs. Notre Dame

Notre Dame is ranked 80th in 10-yard (or more) passing plays this season. That is low. What’s even more shocking is that the Irish are ranked 112th in pass plays over 20 yards or more. They threw for 90 yards against Georgia and scored only nine points outside the 56 seconds where they scored 17, which included seven after a kickoff return.

On the other hand, Penn State — while not having dynamic receivers — is 28th in passing plays over 20 yards or more, while being 20th in passing plays over 10 yards or more.

PSU is able to manufacture yards in the passing game when needed.

Finally, we have to analyze the turnover margin in this game.

Notre Dame has thrived on turnovers this season. The Irish led the sport in takeaways with 31 this year. Their turnover margin is 18, which is good for second in the sport. I find it difficult to handicap a game based on hoping a team can force turnovers because it needs them to win. If Notre Dame is not able to force a turnover, does ND win the game? I think most would argue no.

Ultimately, I think Penn State is a better version of Notre Dame with more ways to win. I pick the Nittany Lions to win and cover.

PICK: Penn State (+1.5) to lose by fewer than 1.5 points, or win outright

CFP Semifinal best bets, odds and predictions

FRIDAY, JAN. 10

No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas (7:30 p.m., ESPN)

Ohio State is approaching reaching the status of the 2019 LSU National Championship team, and that would be a buzzsaw that’s going to cut down every opponent on its way to winning the title.

Ohio State had an unfathomable loss to Michigan to end its regular season and then used that loss to change the offense. The Buckeyes decided — and rightfully so — to just throw the ball to their NFL receivers.

And guess what? They scored a ton of points.

Ohio State put up 42 against Tennessee and 41 against Oregon, and it is only that low because the Buckeyes let off the gas. Quarterback Will Howard is 41-of-55assing for 630 passing yards in these games. While it is certainly possible that he reverts to the mean a bit against Texas, based on the Texas defensive strengths, I doubt that’s the case.

The strength of the Longhorns defense will be its defensive line against an Ohio State offensive line which is missing key pieces from the regular season. However, the Buckeyes offensive line played well against Tennessee and Oregon, both of whom have good defensive fronts.

The issue I see with the Texas defense in this game is its secondary. The Longhorns just have not seen a passing game like this all season. The closest they’ve gotten is Georgia (who they lost to twice) and Clemson, which threw for 336 yards on Texas.

This Texas defense just isn’t battle-tested enough to be prepared for Ohio State’s passing attack.

Can Ohio State’s defense stop Quinn Ewers, Texas?

The most worrisome aspect of this game for me is the Texas offense against the Ohio State defense.

Ohio State’s defense has allowed only one opponent to score more than 17 points against it this season. That team was Oregon, and it happened in both games against the Ducks. The Buckeyes lost in Eugene on Oct. 12 and used that loss to tweak their defense to be more attacking and use all-world safety Caleb Downs as a hybrid safety linebacker. They are playing high two safeties, with Downs being the third safety, who’s acting as a linebacker.

It’s a long and boring way to say their defense is unique and outstanding.

The concerning part for Texas facing this Ohio State defense is that the Longhorns have routinely underperformed on offense this entire season. In their nine conference games, they went under their projected offensive score in seven of those games. That includes both Georgia games, where they finished seven and 16 points behind projections.

I’m concerned about their offense facing this Ohio State defense. The Texas offensive line is good when healthy, but it’s not as healthy right now. Ohio State’s defense is built to stop outside zone, which is what Texas wants to major in.

If the Longhorns have to rely on Quinn Ewers to win the game, count them out.

I like Ohio State to cover and Texas to score under 23.5 points.

PICK: Ohio State (-6) to win by more than 6 points
PICK: Texas team total Under 23.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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